Chinese Communist Likely Courses of Action up to 1963, September 25, 1957

This document estimates China’s actions over the next six years. It predicts that the Sino-Soviet alliance will remain solid and at the centre of China’s international policies, while China would also look to decrease Western influence in Asia and seek recognition as a Great Power. The analysis estimates that China will maintain a state of high military preparedness but not risk an outbreak of war, including over the issue of Formosa while the US defends it. However, if it became evidence that the US was unlikely to retaliate after a Chine move, China was likely to make an “armed intervention” against the islands.

The paper also considers China’s domestic policies and its relations with the broader Communist bloc, Europe, and other Asian states.