https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/4476e95aafbee18d8e3892201e58e1b9.pdf 15cb384fb93346933d5d2bb20a3be401 PDF Text Text BEST AVAILABLE COPY \ J.J. •_)_ 1 '.) \ FMMOSCOW SEf,:16/62 SECRET 1U EXTERNAL 673 OPIMMED INFO TT LDNCPMANDMINISTER)NATOPARIS OPIMMED BONNBRU HAGUEROME WltSHDCPERMISNY EMBPARIS PRIOR!TY FM OTT TT DM/DND CCOS OTT FM OTT PCO OTT FM OTT .E~G BGRAD WARSAWOSLO VIENNAPRAGUEFM LON ~G BERLIN FM BONN REF MYTEL672 SEP15 GERMANY AND BERLIN HEREWITHCOMMENTSON KHRUSHCHEVS BERLIN PLANAS DISCLOSED IN HIS CONVERSATION WITH KROLL REPORTED IN MY REFTEL. 2.KHRUSHCHEV REALLYSEEMSDETERMINED,UNLESS OF COURSEHE GETS HIS ~y EARLIERBY WESTERN CONCESSIONS,TO BRING WORLD TO VERYBRINK OF THERMONUCLEAR WARIN ORDERTO FORCEWESTERN ABANDONMENTOF OUR PLEDGEON BERLINERS SECURITY.THOMPSONWAS LONGCONVINCED THAT KHRUSHCHEV WASIN FACT SO DETERMINED TO GO RIGHT UP TO BRINK. KHRUSHCHEVS STATEDPLAN IS CONSISTENTIN TIMING ANDCONTENTWITH OTHERRECENT INDlCATIONSCEG TO THOMPSON,U THANT_,UDALL AND IN SEPl 1 TASS DECI..ARATION)oDETAILS ARE MORE PRECISE AND MAY BE DESIGNEDTO MISLEADUS OR BE SUBJECTTO FLEXIBLECHANGES.ITIS FOR EXAMPLE Sf ILL P!)SSIBLE THAT.KHRUSHCHEVMIGHTTAKEBERLIN QUESTIONTO UN BEFORERATHERTHANAFTER SIGNING PEACETREATYANDBLOCKINGACCESS. 1-0WEVER. ~ALCULATION THATUN TENDENCY IS NORMALLY TO URGEPEACEFUL ACQUIESCENCE STRENGTHENS PLAUSIBILITYOF KHRUSHCHEVS DECLARED PLAN TO CREATEFAIT ACCOMPLI,AND THENGO NOT RPT NOT TO UNGABUT TO ~CUHITY COUNCILWHEREHE HAS A VETO.FACTTHATKHRUSHCHEV MADENO CRPTNO MENTIONTO KROLLOF INTENTIONTO HOLDPEACECONFERENCE OR ATTEMPT TO GET SOMENEUTRALS TO SIGN MAYALSOBE RELEVANT.INTHESE CIRCUMSTANCES IT MIGHTBE DIFFICULT EVEN IF WETHOUGHT IT PROFIT· ASLE AFTERFAIT ACCO:i!PLIFOR WESTTO TRY TO TAKEMATTERTO BEST AVAILABLE COPY 000142 �PAGE TWO 673 ASSEMBLY UNDER U~ITING FOR PEACE PROCEDURES. DANGER POINT LIES 3.CRUCIAL I~ KHRUSHCHEVS APPARENTLY GENUINE CONVICTION THAT IN LAST ANALYSIS KE:~NEDY AND WEST wILL SACK DOWN ' AND ACQUIESCE IN SOME FACE-SAVING FORMULA FOR RETRE~T~I E:CONCJfrJY SENDING BY DEFERRED MSG VIA NEXT SEA PLANE ANALYSIS PROBABLE. FACTORS CONTF'.181.IT U-.G TO THIS WELL SEEM PERSUASIVE. CONCLUSION FROM THEM 15 IN PART AT LEA.ST SHARED BY FRE.NCH GOVT,~JANY KEY GERMANS INCLUDING AND I ~DERSTAND 4.NEVERTHELESS MANY GLOOMY MZ~BEHS OF USACMISSION7HN I NOT RPT NOT ONLY HOPE BUT BELIEVE IS GRAVELY MISTAKENIN THIS A~D THAT IN WOULD NOT RPT NOT BACK DOWN ON VITAL LAST THAT KHRUSHCHEV ANALYSISKENNEDY WHAlEVERCHAPPENED?> AND GRAVELY WEAKEN l"l I.ITUAL SELF CONFIDENCE At~D HENCE COHESION OF F'REE WORLD.THIS POSilION BERLIN. FOLLOWED BY SECOND THOUGHTS WHICH WOULD WOULD BE INEVITABLY JEOPARDIZE KHOLL, ISSUES OF FREE ACCESS AND CONTit,.;UED AMERICA[\, PRESENCE IN bERLIN,SINCE IT OF VEHY DANGEROUS IMPHESSION. THESE FACTORS ARE OMINOUSLY NUMEROUS ANOMAY KHRUSHCHEV PROBABLY KtOWS THAT HIS AM FOR WOULD ULTIMATELY AS AN AMERICliN POLITICIAN DESTROY KENC-.EDYS ~iS WELL AS JEOPARDIZE AMERICAS ROLE AS LE.ADER OF F'REE WORLD.MOREOVER SUCH A STUPENDOUS VICTORY FOR KHRUSHCHEV WOULD l THINK SHIPS PROPENSITY TO THY INE-VIT,'iBLY INCREASE COMMWIST LEADER- FURTHEREXPP,NSION OF COM!": UNIST 11',;FLUENCE BY NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL. IT WOULD ALSO ENCOURAGE RUSS IAN TENDENCY TO t:XPLOIT GLOBAL MILITARY POWER THEY hAVE AT LAST BUILT GREAT COST OVER MANY YEARS. INCIDENT MISCALC ULAT I~ G PUBLIC AMERICA~ PUBLIC f,LLYKHRUSHCHEV OPINION 6.TO OF THEIR DO THIS IS F'HOBABLY REACTION Il'-l USA AND ROLE WHICH /\ROUSED CAN HAVE 0~ POLICY 5.IT 1S I THINKTHEREFORE VITALLYI~PORTANT LEADERSHlf' Uf} AT SUCH ILLUSIONS OF USA ADMIN. TO DISABUSESOVIET ON .FIRtv:NESS Of -WESTERN INTENTIONS. WE MUST TRY TO CORRECT VARIOUS CAUSES OF' SOVIET 0 000143 •• .3 �PAGETHREE673 MISINTERPRETATION OF WILL NOT RPT WESTERN WILL TO DEFEND ITS POSITIONoTHIS NOT BE EASY OR PERHAPS VERY CHEAP. 7~WEMUSTRECOGNIZESTRENGTHOF TEMPTATIONS LURINGKHRUSHCHEV ANDOTHERSOVIET LEADERS TO TAKERISK.COLD WARGAIN FOR THEMIN FORCING A WESTERN BACKDOWNWOULDOBVIOUSLY BE ENORMOUS. NATO( AND CENTOAND SEATO)WOULD BE WEAKENED ANDTHEIR PUT IN QUESTIONvTHEY EXISTENCE CONTINUED REASONABLY EXPECTTHATLONG-TERM MIGHT PROBLEM POSEDFOR COMMUNISTS BY SUCCESSFULDEVELOPMENT OF EUROPEAN COM~ON MARKET WOULD PROBABLY &iCK Ai'-lD PROBABLE DISILLUSION BE GREATLY MODERATED BY POLITICAL SET ING OF THOSE CONTINENTAL WEST EUkOPEANSWHOLOOKOUTWARD ANDFAVOURCLOSE TIES ALSO WITH NORTH A"lE.R!CA AND OTHERPARTS OF FRE£ WORLD.,KHRUSHCHEV MAYNEEDA ALSO BECAUSEDORREGIMEIS NOT RPT NOT STABLE,ANDBECAUSE ~CCESS OOMMUN!5T ai.oc IS WELL INCREASINGLY ;..oSING COHESION.KHRUSHCHEV MAY CONSIDERHIMSELF UNDER VERY GREATPRESSURE TO ACHIEVESOME,, THINGWHICH WILL REESTABLISH HIS ANf)MOSCOWS DOM !NANCE ANDEXERCISE SPECTREOF GROWING IN BLOC EEC PULLINGEASTEUROPEINTO ITS ORBITs ~DESPITE ALL THIS WEMUSTREMEMBER AND I THINK TAKEADVANTAGE OF POWERFUL FACTORS IN3IDE WHENRISKS ALL WE CAN SHOWNTO BE TOO GREAT.IMPORTANT AMONG THESE IS CAN BE PROBABLY SOVIET SEE PUBLIC OPINIOM.. IT IS SIGNIFICANT THATJUDGINGFROM HERE. PUBLIC ON CUBA AND BERLIN QUIET.THIS IS IN filANDABLE COMMUNIST C.t1MPOPPOSED TO FOREIGN ADVENTURES HA:3 BfEN PtdT TO RECENTTASS DECLARATION ONE OF :3HOCKED GLOOM AND PHOFOUND DIS~ BUT NOT RPT NOT EXCLUSIVELY POPULAR FEELING RUNNING WAR RISKS REACT ION THAT DISTANT DUE TO UNDER= CUBA IS NOT RPT NOT WORTH FOR..BUT LAST AUTUMN WAR SCARE ON BERLIN ALSO INDUCED SOME Pi\N [C AND I THINK IMPORTANT PUBLIC AND ITSELF PARTY ffiESSURESON SOVIET LEADERSHIPTO BE MODERATEo ~WESTERNSHOW OF FIRMNESSLAST YEA2CNOT RPT NOT MERELY IN " •• 4 000144 �f'AGE FOUR 6 73 WORDS,BUT IN CO$TLY MILITARY AND ECON Ott:IC ACTION, AND IN FSYCHOLOGIC/'.',L PREPARP,TION OF WESTERN OPINION FOR FIRt-;NESS IN A CRISIS)PAID AND GAINED US POSTPOt--.EMENTOF KHHUSHCHE.VSDEADL!NE.MY OFF IMPRESSION THEN WPiS ALSO THAT Jtv:FORTANT ELEMENTS IN SOVIET LEADERSHIP, IN- ME~BERS AND SOME SATELLITE CLUDING SOME PRESIDIUM VERYCONCERhED LEST KHRUSHCHEV LEADERS,WERE GO TOO FAR,AND USEDTHEIR INFLUENCE ON SIDE OF RESTRAINT AND BACKDOWN. 10.BUT ~y IMPRESSION IS ALSO THAT QUOTEFORWARD UNQUOTE GROUP IN COMMUNIST LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING ON THIS ISSUE KHRUSHCHEV HIMSELF, HAVE INTERPRETED RESULTAf\T WESTERN EUPHORIA AND SUCH EVIDENCE AS THEY CAN FIND OF WESTERNINDECISION ANOThER ATTEMPT TO TEST AND D!SARRAY,TO WESTERtlNERVE,AFTER THIS YEARS FURTHER MIL I1 ARY PREPARATIONS PART ICUL.ARLY DDR B LIT ALSO IN SOV!ET ROCKET }J, AND THERMONUC!..EAR CAPA31LITIES,~iIGHT lleKHRUSHCH[VS SUGGEST THAT THIS TIME PAY OFF. TO SETTINC DISCLOSURES TO KROLL AMOUNT I~ EFFECT At-lOTHER DEADLINE,EV£N THOUGHNOT RPT NOl El\TIRELY PRECISE AND THIS TIME. AS YET NOT RPT NOT IN PUBLIC. 12.CUR!OUS FACT THAT ~HRUSHCHEV WOULD DISCLOSE"HIS OPPONENTS THIS TACTICS TO FAR IN ADVANCE MAY IMPLY EXTENT OF' HIS CONFlDENCE,ESPECIALLi' SELF- SINCE WI::STERN RESPONSES HAI/ETHUS FAR BEEN MERELY DEFENSIVE REACTIONSTO SOVJ.ET INITIATIVES.ON MIGH1 ALSO,OR ALTERNA1IVELY,SUGGEST OTHER HAND IT HIS UNCERTAINTY AND DREAD OF ACTUALLY PRESENTING WEST WITH SUCH FAIT ACCOMPLI AND HIS HOPE THATTHIS ADVANCE DISCLOSURE IvlAYPROMPT KENNEDY TO SEEK MTGBEFORE NOV MD OF'FER FUHTHERCOJ\CESSIONSTO BUY HIM OFF • . 1Z1.I TH Il\lK A F UffrHEH \\ESTERN DISPLAY OF F'IRMNESS COHESION AND GIRDl~G OUR LOI!\SCMATERIAL AND SPIRlTUAL)WILL BE NECESSARY.WE SHOULDPHOBhBLY RE.VIH. AND TIG:ffEN CONTINGENCY PLANS Af-.D OUR hEADlNESS TO IMPLEMENT THEM.THIS wOULD INCLUDE PLANS FOR CAREFULLY PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE MILITARY MEASURES,ECONOMIC SANCTIONS IN 0 •• 5 000145 �·- PAGEFI.VE 673 INCLUDINGWESTGERMAN READINESSTO CUT INTER-ZONALTRADE,AND PROdABLY AS DEGAULLEhAS URGEDOTHERMEASURESIN FIELDS OF OUR OWN CHOOSINGSUCHAS READINESSTO CUT OFF SOV!ET COMMUNICATIONS FACILITIES IN ANDOVERFREE WOHLD TERRITORYoABOVE ALL IT MUSTBE MADECREDIBLETO MOSCOW THATWEST IS READYANDDETERMINED TO MAINTAIN ACCESS TO BERLIN BY l"l IL IT ARY FORCE IF NECESSARY• l4oIF WE DO THIS KHRUSHCHEV IS I THINK FLEXIBLE ENOUGH,AND HIS ros1TION STRONGENOUGH,TOLET HIM BPCK DOWNAGAINA KEY ELEMENT. IN POSITION KHRUSHCHEV HAS BUILT FOF HIMSELF,NOTRPT NOT ONLY POLITICALLYBUT IDEALOGICALLY,ISTHATWARWOULDBE DISA5TROUSALSO FOR COMMUNIST CAMP,ANDTHATCOEXISTENCEANDMUTUALRESTRAINT BETWEEN POWERS IS IN LONG=TERM INTERESTALSO OF USSRoKHRUSHCHEV IS A GAMBLER,AND NATURALLY SEEKS TO HAVEIT BOTH WAYS.BUTI THINKTHAT IN LAST ANAtYSIS HE WILL SETTLE FOR WHATEVER HE CAN ~FELY GET.OURTASK IS ro HELP HIM AVOIDMISCALCULATION,AND TO LET HIM DEMONSTRATE ALSO T1 MOREOBDURATE ELEMENTSIN SOVIET LEADER= SHIP AND IN COMMUNIST BLOC THATCUTTINGWESTERNl-\CCESSTO BERLIN WOULD INVOLVEHISKS TOO GREATANDTOO CERTAINTO BE ACEPTABLE ARNOLD SMITH 000146 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource NATO Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Berlin Crisis / 16 SEPTEMBER 1962 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 1962-09-16 Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF Language A language of the resource en Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDTT00040 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Moscow to External Affairs, ‘‘Germany and Berlin,’’ 16 Sept. 1962, LAC, RG 25, vol. 6080, file no. 50341-A-2-40, part 1. Arnold Smith Khrushchev thermonuclear war