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D E P A R T M E N T OF E X T E R N A L AFFA

Subject
Date

MM,
Ap X U. 27.*... 196.9

(

Publication

.T.he....New..Xork-_Times_

7 The Arguments Over .Russia's S$-9..

\

.WASHINGTON — Moving to . .a city several* times over, it ; listic missile system-. to , defend
center stage in the Nixon Ad1-' se6med*a great waste of re- * the Minuteman siies.
' But this • calculation of. Soviet
sources. But its large warhead
ministration's argument for. the
intentions involves a number of
Safeguard missile defense sys-. would ..m&lt;5re than make up 'for
tern is a five-year-• old Soviet its'" accuracy, which is only fair, i very basic uncertainties and Mr.
if it- were, used to attack Min- " Laird's critics challenge some of
ICBM which American intelli, his premises about the SS-9, and
uteman missiles in their silos.
gence calls the SS-9.
%
Nonetheless, with a-1 force of therefore the' need for ABM deThe Johnson Administration
9
only about 225. of trienv by the ployment.
did not appear unduly alarmed
The
critics,
argue,
for,
examwinter
of
the
Johnson
Adminisby the SS-9. Yet the new.Ad:
tration, they seemed no dire" •' pie, th'at it is far from certain
ministration, only three months
threat to the .1,000 Minutemen. '. that the Russians- have decided
in office, seems very much shakBut -then something-, curious - to double their SS-9 force, in
en by its potential to destroy
light'of the great expense and
America's force of Minuteman happened that caused concern
the risk that ,Americas,might remissiles in their silos. .Why. this among a ; number of' American
'wide divergence of opinipn-Beofficials. Last ..December/ arter ! sporid „!}&amp;Jbuilding more ICBM's
also question whether
tween equally weil-inforrrfea* 'ofE "aj'fi'ine months' of*'lw&gt;ESS.-9'ractiyi- i top-.They
:
ficials?
. '
b «..,•, . " b ty; additional ones'1 began turn- '; the Russians can develop war-.
"*• heads- that are'"sufficiently- small
1
The answer lies partly in the ing,..up, in spy satellite photographs. While the number, of : and potent to make efficient
characteristic of the missile it• multiple warheads. And, most
new'.;;site's was small, this"deself, partly in fresh intelligence
velopment.
raised
a
question:of
^portent . t h e y question-whethdata, partly ih new technology
whether the Russians intended 1*r t h e Russians can so vastly
which threatens to .• transform
the arithmetic of* nuclear strat- to resume the earlier pace;* improve their missile - accuracy
as to dig American ICBM's out
egy, and partly- in the politics
which would result in; a total
of their'reinforced-concrete coof about 500 SS-9's five years
of overstatement to bolster a
coons. Yet all three of these
hence.
case.
•
' ,feats;' the critics point iout&gt;~Would
Even this wouldn't undermine
The SS-9 is a 120-foot-tall,
be required for a first-strike
two-stage missile capable of
Minuteman too severely, except
capability.
hurling a warhead weighing for the prospect of new techSeveral Administration offifrom 8,000 to 12,500 pounds
nology: the multiple warhead,
cials privately feel Mr. Laird overover a distance of up to 7,000
each segment of which could
stated his case when he said
miles.
be guided accurately to sepathere was "no question" that
Beginning ins 1965, the Rus- i rate targets. IThls 'cdUId multiply
this^was what the Russians were
!
sians installed 40. to 50 'SS-9 s isthe kill x:apability»ofi'each midup to. Actually, within the ineach year, until last spring, when ..sile.,seyeraI-foldv .•*-..•' '••• t •'
the program appeared, to stop -. • Government-experts- calculated telligence community, there are
three very different theories on
entirely. During the same period •that the SS-9 is powerful enough
•this:'"'"
the Soviets installed about 200 ,to carry either three 4-to-5-meg-:
Ohe school holds .that the
smaller SS : H missiles annually.
aton warheads,-six l-to-2 mega- Russians have a powerful "miliThe SS-9 costs about four ton warheads, or 18' 200-kilotary-industrial complex" that
times as much as the SS-11,
ton warheads.has successfully argued for at
American analysts figure, but it
A force of 500 such missiles,
least some more missiles. Ancan carry a warhead of from
then, becomes very formidable.
other group thinks the Soviets'
9 to 25 megatons, compared to
It could carry, alternatively, a
have decided to seek a firstthe SS-ll's 1-megaton warhead.
total of 1,500, 3,000 or 9,000
strike force, more to exploit as
A 1-megaton weapon is no
warheads. If these could be acan implicit threat in future, conslouch. It is 50 times more powcurately aimied a t . the' .1,000;' frontations t h a n , t o use in a
erful than the bombs that deMinutemen, the' -American • 'mis- surprise"1 attack.- Ab third group
stroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
siles would unquestionably be t r believes the Russians are simply
America's 1,000 Minuteman -and -in great jeopardy:
-• ' - .
interested in limiting damage
656 Polaris missiles also carry
Defense Secretary Melvin R. should nuclear war "break out.
1-megaton warheads. They, are - L;aird\says the Russians- ap/try-^\i£B.M'ss,that can destroy enemy
considered more than ample* to' ' bing'fo develop a first-strike cap'a- ? missiles in their silos would relevel most cities.
u. :y •—.a ibility and has used this argu-.- • duce damage in Russia fully as
The. analysts were puzzled by' ment in calling for the develop- much as anti-missile missiles.
the SS-9. Since one. would- kill
ment of the Safeguard. antibal- •' .
-A ^WILElftM "BEECHER

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