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FM MCOW 0CT3/67 CONFD

0

TO TT EXTER 3583 PRIORITY DE LDN
INFO

LDN TT WASHDC PRMNY NATOPARIS EMBPARIS BONN ROME BRU HAGUE

DISARMDELGVA DE LDN
BAG ATHNS ANKRA OSLO COPEN DE PARIS
ABMS:SOVIET
ABMS:SUViti REACTION
ncHOiiui.

UK/
'

f

/

THERE HAS BEEN NO RPT NO S I G N E T SOVIET REACTION W l O
SPEECH ANNOUNCING USA DECISION TO PROCEED WITH QUOTE v/l»
flBM

0
MCNAMARAS
UNQUOTE

DEFENCE.THERE HAVE BEEN ONE OR TWO BRIEE REES TO NEW DEEENCE

CONTRACTS FILLING THE POCKETS OF ARMS MANUFACTURERS.BUT THESE I
REGARD AS STANDARD PROPAGANDA.DESIGNED TO HOLD THE LINE UNTIL A SUBSTANTIVE POSITION IS DEVELOPED.
2.THIS

IS A TASK OF SOME DIFFICULTY.SOVIET LEADERS HAVE TOLD THEIR

OWN PEOPLE LTTTLE ABOUT CHINESE NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS OR USA ATTEMPTS
TO NEGOTIATE AGREEMENT WITH THEM ON ABMS.TO ATTACK USA DECISION
WOULD INVOLVE SOME EXPLANATION OF WHY DECISION WAS BEING ATTACKED,
THIS IN TURN WOULD DEMAND THAT MORE BE REVEALED TO SOVIET PUBLIC ON
THIS SUBJ THAN HAS SO FAR BEEN PERMITTED TO APPEAR.IF MCNAMARAS
PUBLIC JUSTIFICATION WERE REJECTED.FOR EXAMPLE,SOVIET LEADERS WOULD
EVEN THIS MUCH COULD ALARM SOVIET PUBLIC WHO ARE WELL AWARE OF
DETERIORATION OF SINO-SOVIET RELATIONS EVEN IF THET ARE IGNORANT OF
PROGRESS OF CHINAS WEAPONS PROGRAMME.
3.0N OTHER HAND.SOVIET LEADERS WOULD HAVE EOUAL DIFFICULITV IN CRITICKI1G SYSTEM-AS DIRECTED AGAINST THEM.SINCE THEY WENT AHEAD WSTH

000149

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PAGE TWO 3583 CONFD
THEIR OWN SYSTEM FIRST AND SINCE USA HAS GONE OUT OF ITS WAY TO MAINTAIN PUBLIC POSITION THAT THEIR DECISION IS RELATED TO CHINESE NOT
RPT NOT SOVIET THREAT.RUSSIANS MUST KNOW THAT USA DECISION HAS AT
LEAST AS MUCH TO DO WITH THEM AND THIS OCCASIONALLY BECOMES APPARENT.
FOR EXAMPLE,A TASS REPORT ON DEVELOPMENTS IN NATO REFERRED TO PLANS
BY NUCLEAR CTTEE TO DISCUSS QUOTE ABM SYSTEM WIDELY ADVERTISED BY
USA UNQUOTE.BUT SO FAR AT LEAST,THEY CONTINUE TO BE UNWILLING TO
ENGAGE IN PUBLIC OR PRIVATE DISCUSSION OF ABMS AS AN ISSUE BETWEEN
USSR AND USA.REPORTS OF GNEVA DISCUSSIONS SUGGEST THIS IS BECAUSE
THEY DO NOT RPT NOT WISH TO RAISE AN ISSUE WHICH MIGHT HINDER PRO-

^

GRESS IN NPT NEGOTIATIONS.
4.FINALLY THERE IS THE CONSIDERATION THAT SOVIET LEADERS MAY NOT RPT
NOT YET HAVE TOTALLY REJECTED POSSIBILITY OF SECRET DISCUSSIONS WITH
AMERICANS AIMED AT LIMITING ARMS RACE LIKELY TO BE TRIGGERED BY
DECISIONS TO CONSTRUCT UNIMPEDED ABM DEFENCES.DOOR WAS CERTAINLY
LEFT OPEN BY AMERICANS AND I THINK RUSSIANS RECOGNIZE THIS.THUS
SILENCE IN SOVIET PRESS MAY BE INTERPRETED AT LEAST IN PART AS A
RECOGNITION OF IMPORTANCE OF SUBJ AND DESIRE NOT RPT NOT TO COMMIT
SOVIET GOVT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
5.NEVERTHELESS IT REMAINS CURIOUS THAT SOVIET GOVT DID NOT RPT NOT
GIVE ENCOURAGEMENT TO AMERICAN ADMIN TO PUT OFF DECISION WHICH,I RECALL LLEWELLYN THOMPSON TELLING ME LAST SPRING,COULD HAVE BEEN
ACHIEVED BY MEREST HINT FROM SOVIET SIDE INDICATING INTEREST IN
DISCUSSING PROBLEM.THOMPSON IS NOT RPT NOT HERE AT MOMENT AND I

000150

�Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information

P A ^ THREE 3583 CONFD
THEREFORCE CANNOT RPT NOT CHECK HIS LATEST EVALUATION OF SITUATION.
MY PERSONAL GUESS IS THAT SOVIET FAILURE TO RESPOND TO USA INVITATION,AND SILENCE AT PRESENT TIME,IS COMPOUNDED IN PART FROM RELUCTANCE TO GET INVOLVED WITH USA IN DIRECT BILATERAL TALKS WHILE
VIETNAM REMAINS UNSOLVED?IN PART FROM PRESSURE OF MILITARY TO
CONSTRUCT SOVIET ABM DEFENCE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF COST OR EFFECT
ON USA?AND IN PART FROM DIVISIONS IN SOVIET GOVT COUNCILS ABOUT
WHICH I HAVE FREQUENTLY WRITTEN AND WHICH CONTINUE TO BE APPARENT.
FORD

i. t

000151

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            <elementText elementTextId="37348">
              <text>CDBM00147</text>
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        <element elementId="50">
          <name>Title</name>
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            <elementText elementTextId="37351">
              <text>Moscow to External 4583 </text>
            </elementText>
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              <text>10/3/1967</text>
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            <elementText elementTextId="37357">
              <text>RG25-A-3-c, file 27-11-7, "DEFENCE - CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS - ANTI - BALLISTIC MISSILES (ABM) = DEFENSE - ARMEMENTS DE TYPE CLASSIQUE ET NUCLEAIRE - ENGINS ANTIMISSILES (ABM)," vol. 10357, part 3, Library and Archives Canada, (LAC).</text>
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            <elementText elementTextId="37363">
              <text>Canadian Crown</text>
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              <text>Anti-ballistic missiles</text>
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              <text>ABMs: Soviet Reaction </text>
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