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                  <text>ment disclosed
wjvulgue en

EXTERNAL AFFAIRS

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FILE CiiAtivatD u u f
The Under-Secretary of State for External Affairs,
Ottawa, CANADA

TO

A

The Canadian Embassy, Washington, D.C*

FROM
D9

REFERENCE
Kiftrenee

Our telegrams No. 7lU of February 21 and 1116 of
March 22.

SUBJECT
Sujel

Ballistic Missile Defence and Domestic Politics

SECUI
SSevrUi

DATE

A p r i l 1 0 , 1967

NUMBER
Numiro

•J?7 3
DOSSIER

FILE

MISSION

a 7 - // - 7

3?

ENCLOSURES
Anmxti

DISTRIBUTION

NATO' P a r i s
Moscow
CFHQ
CURS (Mr. Snarjj)
CDLS (W)

X

We have reported previously on some of the difficulties
facing the Administration, in its efforts to sell in this country the
idea of an agreement with the Soviet Union on limitation of defensive
and offensive missile systems at the same time an effort to reach
some sort of agreement is being made. Attached is an article which
appeared in the Washington Post of April 9 on this theme*
2.
Charles Hitch, one of the principal architects of
systems analysis in the U„S. Department of Defence and himself a
knowledgeable man in this field described this article to the
Ambassador as "well informed".

JXhe Embassy,

&lt;W.

^
000363
Exl. 4071/BH.
(Admin. Sarvlcn Div.)

�Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur Tacces a Tinformation

BEST -ORIGINAL' AVAILABLE
. MBLLEUR ORIGINAL

DEPARTMENT OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS

Su6Ject^.phM.9JQj&amp;kli4infi_._QM® J?:9£....?.e&lt;iuction °*" N u c l e ar Margin

Date.....April.„SA.. .1.9.6.7

Pub//cation..The._V;ashingtan_Po.st..

The NATO defense minis--; slonal support tor trying to"
ters felt they were putting the [get an ABM freeze, the Johnthesis on the public record son' Administration has dewhen they said in their com- cided
henceforth
not to
raunique, issued Friday, that match Russia missile for misexisting strategic n u c l e a r sile to maintain the.present
forces and the plans for em- superiority.
ploying them are adequate to
Brown Statement
the need."
Without relating it to the
Risks for Leader
ASM negotiations, Air Force
But there are grave political Secretary Harold Brown told
risks for President Johnson or the Senate Armed Services
any other national leader to and Defense Appropriations
say right out that the time has committees recently the U.S.,
come to let a potential enemy is letting its nuclear edge be;
By George C. Wilson
close its missile gap.
reduced:
WtaalDston Post S-..U Writer
• The idea of the U.S. and
"Our plans, are that five
Russia
having
the
same
numThe Johnson Administration, as it approaches lalki
years from now we will have
ber
of
strategic
nuclear
warjust
about as many missiles as
with Russia on an anti-missile freeze, has started to buile
heads is called nuclear parity we have right now," Brown
ihe case for cutting the' margin of U.S. nuclear super! —a
condition which hawks in said. The Soviets "have kr.own
©rity.
Congress and elsewhere abhor. that. They have known it for
Sen.
Strom Thurmond fR.- a couple of years, and they
The idea is to convince Congress and the public U
for example, argues that keep on building. Now we can
the coming months that there is nothing sacred abou' S.C.),
"parity is not a deterrence but j afford to let thc.-n build for
the present 3-or-4-to-l margin the U.S.. has over Rtissi:
invitation to attack." He while, if they feet they want'
in strategic missiles.
contends Johnson Adminlstra. to catch up. But there is evi-:
tion policy Is heading toward dencc that if we stop, they!
. This will require down playing the significance of tht parity with Russia "and we're don't necessarily stop. They:
Pentagon's own advertisements about U.S. nueiear su closer to it now than ever be- haven't stopped. I think that'
fore."
in our position we can-afford'
periority as well as Overcom*
A key question that Admin- to let this go on for a while,!
Ing the widespread conviction
;
istration leaders h a v e de- without overrespanding."
that, buying missiles buys po?;b..rbclined to answer is whether Pentagon Count
J
litical strength.
the U.S. intends to trade some
Thosu Russian leaders try" r"^'
of its nuciear superiority for a The Pentagon count of!
missiles'
ing to avoid a new spiral in
Russian promise not to pro- ICBMs, including
ceed
with its an'ti-bailistic-mis- launched by submarine, as o f
the arms race also must sell
Oct.
1,
1966,
was:
U.S.,
1446.'.
slle
(ABM)
system.
this theme to their own ha»ks
Russia 4T0. The intercontinf\yyf-,
--si' To Discuss Both
or demand missile equality
ental bomber count was: U.S.. '•
with the U.S. in exchange for
However, President Johnson, 580, Russia, 155, U.S. nuclear.
aot going all the way with asi
and Soviet Premier Kosygin]} b o m b e r s carry ahout four!
£r.fS,rv.;'.-have agreed that both offen-j four bombs each. {The 750 meanti.missile system.
r
sive and defensive weapons' dium range missiles Russia
c -•-'%, y •
McNamara at Fore
will be discussed in the forth has targeted on Europe were'
Defense Secretary Robert S.
coming U.S.-Soviet talks in not counted, nor were Soviet
McNamara has been among
Moscow. No date has yet been medium range bombers.&gt;
those advertising the U.S. mis,set for the negotiations.
| The 5- Or 6-to-l edge in
sile edge over Russia. But he
' The U.S. obviously must give: nuclear warheads refers t o '
now is at the forefront of
.up something if Russia, heavily' those that the U.S. and.Russia!
Johnson Administration leadCniLsa Press laiftfaitlonai
outnumbered in offensive mis- now have available to drop on'
ers trying to persuade Russia
siles, foregoes further ABM de, each other. Again, this is ex-;
ROBERT
McNAMARA
not to react to that edge by
ployment. This raises fears pressed in numbers, not ex. . . new nuclear ruatfi
going ahead'with a missile de
•--among the hawks that the U.S.
fense.
* numerical superiority like 3 will agree to reduce its often- plosive power. -The individual
strategic warhead count: US.,1
The Administration's new' to 1 ° r 6 to t over Russia, . sive missile force.
argument is that present U.S.! While advancing this thesi,5 ; President Johnson : is push- 4000; Russia, 700. n u c l e a r superiority came' Administration
*?&gt;'• ing nam ior an agreement o: Against the force of lOOOl
about more by accident than'away from sayirig whether the
anti-missile systems and ma, hardened Minutemen which:
by design as the Pentagon; United States would be willing
the U.S. has planned for the;
built its nuclear arsenal tu' to sec its nuclear Ydge'sltavcd eventually send McNamara t future as its main offensive!
handle the highest likely Rus-i to 2 to 1 or even aeltle for Moscow to help make tb land-based missile force, insian threat.
case.
telligence leaders predict Rus-J
This planning for the worst equality with Russia.
sia wilt have a land force of'.ha3 given the U.S. what sonic, But they do argue that McNamara contends tha
1000 hard-i
critic; call, "overkill"—mure tripling tbe nuclear lead does any kind of tntl-ballistic': between 650 and
weapons than it really needs not triple a nation's interna- missile system could be penc-'encd ICBMs.
!
to absorb a first strike by
trated, so why spend billion.' Taking the high side of this
Russia and then retaliate with, tional political power.
on defense?
estimate, not counting subtfcvaitsting nuclear power. j Doesn't Hold True
He believes both Eussit m a r i n e " ' = " « • t n e u . s - ""J
Russia already are headed
To Prevent Outbreak
' The historical concept that »n^ th. ire „ . , j u ..
i the size of a nation'j army de and the US. could absorb i ^ward nuclear parity in those
first
strike
a
nd
ttlll
destros
types of ICBMs. Failure to
The whole p u r p o s e of;
ICBAW. L'oes the argument, is; termlnes Its political clout!the attacker with the nucleai reach ar. anti-missile agreelo keep general nuclear' warj does not hold true for nuclear!weapons which survived. Hi ment, however, might result In
from ever bvcakir.*-' out in the I leaders*' " t A d m i n l s t r a l i , 5 n j b e l i e v e s Russia has started ti the U.S. building new offen.
first place. This deterrence'
1 1 111
defense forlstve weapons in another updepends on boiU sides rcaliz-l Scc-etary Mclfjm-ra nut' "/ e ' r t h*e missile
U
-S... with its offer, j««nl spiral ot the- arms race.
ing a nuclear attack would be; forth'this thesis to" se-tns ex-! *
national suicide; nobody can; tent in his posture statement|«ve superiority, may someday!. T h e h a w , &lt; 3 '""'"•• ? '
is even closer when the relawin.
given to the Congress
early!strike first.
u
hMiTi ,3 ytar
• — Tht : * vATO
i » l « s'K ij
tive size of the ICBM warOn;-; ilic United Sr^tf"?
Stjtr.. h
dcV-'r
i'7
'''
Nuclear
enough weapons tc
Impressed hy this argument 'heads i* measured. V,:h:!e the
'" Planning Group, which met
AJtnini'tratior
' i . K H ' ! : ' ' " ' " ' 3 »«"»
toSaSi"111
encouraged by the sur-'lUS. Mlnuteman and Soviet
is no payt'i '•ittoaenVvn'mm".' -11 '*. 10 '"? 01 |prisms amount of conzresheyOTu! ic ju

Awv Arms Spiral Fcitretl

ohnson Building
Case for Reduction
Of Nuclear Mar siil]
a

• ii
1

'

W4'-

j

|E#yET

J

, •

000364

�Document disclosed under the Accessto Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur Tacces a Tinformation

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DEPARTMENT OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS

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:

SS-9 ICBMs are both about"
one megaton each, the Soviets
also are building hundreds of
missiles with warheads be-j
tween 7 and 25 megatons.
In fact, some military leaders say privately that the U.S.,
not Russia, is faced with a
"megatonnage gap."

..;-f-

'M

000365

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              <text>RG25-A-3-c, file 27-11-7, "DEFENCE - CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS - ANTI - BALLISTIC MISSILES (ABM) = DEFENSE - ARMEMENTS DE TYPE CLASSIQUE ET NUCLEAIRE - ENGINS ANTIMISSILES (ABM)," vol. 10357, part 2, Library and Archives Canada, (LAC).</text>
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