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                  <text>UNITED STATES DELEGATION

TOTHE
NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL

^

iJUt}'^^'

OTAN-NATO

&lt;Uif

PLACE DU MARECNALPE IA7TRE E&gt;E TASSIGNV
PARIS XVI? _ F R A N C E

7- //- 1

March 7, 1967

3
NATO_SECHET
Dear Colleague;
Her. is the text «t * * — * »

Cleveland's -f.te.ent

to the Special Council Meeting on Kerch 7, 1967. I
no pe

you find it helpful in your reporting.
Sincerely,

J3Xej»-U».W *.f9*-~~

Secretary o/1&gt;elfgation

Tbe Lord Coleridge, Executive Secretary
Secretaries of Delegations

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STATEMENT BY AMBASSADOR CLEVELAND
AT SPECIAL JBgTING OF THEsCOUNCIL.
MARCH 7S 1967

Mr. Chairman:
At the meeting of the Disarmament Experts last fall,
US experts9 at the request of other members of the Alliance,
made quite a comprehensive report on the fundamentals of
anti-ballistic missile systems, on what'they can and cannot
be expected to do, on the general state of the art,: and on
the status of US planning and thinking about this Complex
problem at that time.
Since that time, the subject of ABM's has moved to the
center of the stage*

As we have informed this^Gouncil, our

development of ABM's has advanced to the point where we must
take a decision whether to proceed with deployment. E*fta
before taking that decision, we have proposed -- and the
Soviet Union has agreed —

to explore possibilities of an

agreement to.curb deployment of ABM's as well as strategic
offensive weapons.

We made this proposal because our intensive

examination of the present and foreseeable strategic nuclear
balance persuaded us that recourse on both sides to deployment
of major ABM systems predictably would end at stalemate on a
higher, costlier,, and perhaps more dangerous level of nuclear
stand-off —

with nothing to show for it but tfie expenditure

of tens of billions of dollars and rubles.
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This morning I will try to outline for you how we have
come to this judgment.

Hopefully the statement which I

•shall make and distribute will be a useful point of reference
as the NATO Disarmament experts embark on their discussions
on this and related problems, as NATO consultations continue
regarding the talks which will begin shortly with the Soviet
Union, and as the NPG meets in Washington next month with
Anti-Ballistic Missiles as the first topic on its agenda.
This is the first time that the subject of ABM's has
y. •• ... J-, £•

been: before the North Atlantic Council as such; and I
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suppose,, therefore, that it would be appropriate to start our
proceedings today with a very brief comment on the nature of
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the animal that we are considering.
Although a technical description of the NIKE X system
and its components will be furnished you with the text of my
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presentation^ 1 believe just a few words covering what an
ABM system involves would be useful as part of'my introduction.
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• Basically, what the system must do is detect, identify,
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intercept, and destroy incoming ballistic missiles prior to
their arrival on target. All of this must take place in a
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matter of minutes, and the system must be able to deal with
various complicating factors such as multiple missiles,
••••'•• •• *&gt;,-- --jj- •

multiple warheads, decoys and other penetration devices.
Our NIKE X system is designed to accomplish these tasks using
several different types of powerful new radars and two types
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of interceptor missiles. One missile (SPARTAN) is designed
to destroy incoming missiles in the exoatmosphere (up to 280 NM
altitude) and at ranges of several hundred miles from its
launch site.
a large area.

Because of its range this missile can defend
The second type missile (SPRINT) is designed

to destroy any incoming missiles which have survived the area
defense.

It intercepts at altitudes up to 100,000 feet and

at ranges up to 25 miles.
defense.

Its role then is pointy :6r|iocal,

Both missiles would employ nuclear warheads. The

more technical explanation which will be furnished you will
also provide information on the current development status
of the system and the plans for testing it'; "lS; I think we should also keep in mind that ABM defense,
in addition to its technical complexities^, is a very costly
system.

''••••«• ^ -f

We.have studied various levels of deployment with

original investment costs ranging from a minimum of about
4 up to 40 billion dollars.
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Further, to be fully effective an ABM system would require
improvement and expansion in air defense programs and in
civil defense shelter programs,, both of which would also be
costly.

^'

I am sure that none of this comes as startling news to
ray colleagues; but that, in layman's language, is a thumbnail
description of the weapons system and costs we are discussing
here this morning.
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• Now5, we. have-been aware for several years that the Soviets
have been working on an anti-ballistic missile defense
system, just as we have been.

The Soviets are also now

deploying such a system around Moscow, which uses the so-called
"GALOSH" missile, which they displayed publicly in a Moscow
parade in 1964, and which is a rough counterpart of our
- -

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SPARTAN, though less advanced.
They are also deploying another type :of defeESive system
at a number of locations in the' SovietffiaioHj,but the-weight
of the evidence at this time suggests that this*system is
not intended primarily for•anti-ballistic missile defense8
but for anti-aircraft defense.
The Soviets know 'from their own experience that ABM"s
are very' expensive.

The irregular pace of -the'Soviet ABM

program in, the past suggests that they may at ©ae point have
• £.'I,
mader. a false**start
9 run into technical difficulties,, backed
off and done more research, and started again,

" These-are the very sorts of problems that run up the
costs of major research and development programs —

and of

operational programs started at too early a stage of research
and -development.

The Soviets do not., howevers vseem to have

been discouraged by past experience.
''Meanwhile, resource allocation debates'ia the Soviet
Union leave no doubt that any large- new military program
could only be financed at the. cost of something"else.
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it seems clear that cost considerations have not precluded a
decision to proceed with at least a limited deployment.
If the Soviets feel the pinch, and depending on what
priority they have assigned ABM deployment^ they might hold
annual costs down by stretching deployment out over a period
of years, or by limiting the extent of the deployment program.
Under the circumstances9 it might be supposed that the
Soviets would be particularly sensitive to the" argument that
ABM deployment might provoke a "new round in the arms race."
They have had the experience of generating a so-called
"missile gap**.,, which served primarily to cause a US build-up
which left them in a worse relative strategic position than
before^ Nonetheless, they have continued to make exaggerated
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claims about the status of advanced technical developments,
including the defensive weapons field.
Soviet officials and scholars, through such forums as
the Pugwash meetings„ have for some years been exposed to
arguments from1 the West about the possible destabilizing
•--•%'
effects of ABM"s. And they have understood these arguments
" "•- • yi *i

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well enough to publish rebuttals.
As far as the public record is concerned, they have
thus rejected the proposition that ABM's would be destabilizing,
and have insisted instead on the legitimacy of .ABM's as
defensive weapons systems.

This view is consistent with past

emphasis on the defense in Soviet military thinking.
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Taking all of this slowly accumulating evidence into
account;, we must, for the time .being,, - plan-our "forces on the
assumption that they will deploy some sort of an ABM system
around their major cities by the early 1970;'s.

Whether made

up of GALOSH only, or a combination of GALOSH and other types
of missiles j, a full scale deployment would cost the Soviet
Union at least as much: as a comparable deployment would us —•
$20 billion or more.
The question for us is, and has been, what*the US reaction
should be to this clear pattern of ABM development and deployment
in-the Soviet Union which threatens .to pro ject'^he nuclear
,v

arms' race into- a new costly spiral.

We have for some years been developing pehetratioa aids
against the' contingency of Soviet ABM deployment.

We have

available penetration aids against such defenses,

W© have

a broadly based R&amp;D program to improve further our capability
to reduce the offensive effort needed to penetrite the defense.
. At the same times we have, as:the Council.is aware,
pursued actively the research and development stages of a
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potential US ABM system, but have withheld a policy decision
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to proceed with production and deployment.
Meanwhile, we have been conducting a good many studies -taking into account NATO work on related matters —

on the

strategic and political impact of mutual deployment of ABM
•systems on the present balance of arms, on'"the'"Security of
•both the Atlantic and the Pacific-^on East-West relations
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and on the prospects for general and specific progress toward
an arms limitation with the Soviet Union, to which we have
been devoting great efforts and significant resources for the
past decade.
In any event,, in these studies we have attempted to
weigh this issue very carefully from as many points of view
as we could imagine to be relevant.

In some cases, the

conclusions appear fairly clear to us, at least; tentatively;
in others the factors are so finely balanced —
—

or so unpredictable

that no clear judgment seems feasible or wise at this time.
Our hope is that this meeting might serve to stimulate

thinking in capitals about these and related aspects of this
immensely complicated ABM issue.

In the meantime, we throw

out for your consideration some of the tentative conclusions
or judgments which are emerging from the analytical mills
in Washington.
First;

Very briefly, these includes

If the US, in response to Soviet ABM deployment,

installed a. US ABM system,, the Soviets would in turn react
to maintain their deterrent.

They could increase the number

of their offensive missiles? they could introduce more
sophisticated penetration aids; they could put hew emphasis
on other types of delivery vehicles; they could decrease the
vulnerability of their offensive missile forces] they could
extend their own ABM effort,. All these responses are within
their technological capabilities.

Which response or

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combination of responses they would elect would depend upon
V -Saw

cost„ on their judgments about military effectiveness^, ands
no doubt, on the phychology of the decision-makers concerned.
But we feel virtually certain that some such reaction on the
Soviet side would follow the deployment of a US ABM system.
Second;

Mutual ABM deployments should not provide any

temptation to strike first.

Neither present nor foreseeable

;ABM technology offer the prospect of a "perfect9' defense.
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Neither side could assume that it could escape all or nearly
all damage by relying on defensive systems.
The Defense Department has made many calculations of
strategic nuclear exchanges with various offensive and
defensive forces postulated for the US and Soviet Union,
In none of these cases has there been a situation in which
either country could be confident of preventing significant
casualties even if they spent large sums on ABM^s,

In &amp;ome

calculations, casualties would be substantiallyreduced by
ABM defenses, but significant casualties would'-'still be iucurred
even by the side striking first.

It is hard to'""see how the

Soviets could reach a different conclusion,
A combination of defenses plus a first strike would
reduce casualties to lower levels than either bf these alone.
Nevertheless„ the technology we already have in hand and our
planned offensive forces are more than adequate to inflict
entirely unacceptable damage on the Soviet Union9 even assuming
they struck first after having deployed an ABM system around
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their major cities.

With-or-without ABM'-sp therefore, there

seems to be no particular incentive for either side to
strike first.
Third;

Mutual deployment of ABM systems probably would

not increase the risk of nuclear war by miscalculation.
The introduction of ABM's, on the one handp and advanced
penetration aids on the other,, would make for a more complex
strategic giituation.

Decisions would rest even more than now

on the assumptions each country made about the relative
effectiveness of such capabilities.

It might appear that

greater complexity and greater dependence on technical
assumptions could, in a broad sense, open the way to greater
risk of miscalculation.
Although this cannot be completely ruled out, experience
suggests that as the strategic situation has grown more
.... .... 4 .,

complex, caution has not diminished.

The awareness that

there are major uncertainties has a sobering effect that lessens
any incentive for hasty judgments.

The fact that calculations

would rest very largely on unproven assumptions would not
necessarily mean any over-eagerness to put such*assumptions
to the test.
We recognize that there are many intangibles involved
in questions of this character.

^.... • •-*•*£

Perhaps the main consideration

is that both countries now seem aware of the problem and danger
of huelesir war.

This awareness should continue to work against

recklessness,
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Fourth;

The chances for an effective ABM system to defend

the US against Chinese nuclear missile capability for some
years,appear.very good, but no decision needs to be made
about this at the present time.

The prospect at this time

is that the lead time for deployment of a significant
Chinese offensive capability is longer than that needed
for US ABM deployment.

We already have a formidable range of

capabilities and options to meet various problems in the
interim —

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though subsequent growth and increased sophistication

of a Chinese ICBM force could in time lead us to want to have
such a defense system.
Incidentally, we have attempted to puzzle out the probable
'•"?••

reaction to.ABM developments in specific countries —notably
India and Japan; the impact on the triangular Chinese-IndianSoviet relationship; the significance of ABM's for US-Chinese
and Soviet-Chinese relations; and other such enigmas -without pretending to be able to see our way through the
imponderables.

The computers; are helpful only to a point.

We also have attempted to evaluate the effect of a mutual
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deployment of ABM's on a country's decision to "go nuclear"
and, although there are arguments on both sides Jr We do not
believe this would be a decisive factor.
In addition, we have thought hard about the implications
of competitive ABM deployment on East-West relations and here
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I come to the last of the judgments we submit to you with such
cautious reservations today.
Fifths

If at this time the major nuclear powers seem

to be launched on another upward spiral of the nuclear arms
race, East-West tensions would almost certainly be increased.
Certainly such a development would not augur .well for
near-term progress toward that rec0heiliation between East
and West which is the high policy of my government, which is
the aim of all our governments, and which is one of the
central preoccupations of this very Council at the present
time,

' •'

So while we do not take an apocalyptic view of the possibility
of mutual deployment of ABM weapons systems, we have found,
for some of the reasons I have just reviewed, good and
sufficient cause for doing our utmost to prevent this from
happening.

•

Our conviction has been, and still is, that in so very
dangerous a business as nuclear weaponry, the major nuclear
powers share, or should share, a specially vital interest in
arms control and disarmament.

That is why we have pressed

the Soviets to consider with us the irrationality of proceeding
up the escalator to a more costly form of mutual deterrence.
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We tried once to internationalize the atom; we have been
trying without interruption for ten years to ffnd with the
Soviet Union mutually acceptable ways of limiting, controlling,
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and&lt;diminishing the accumulation of needless nuclear power;
we have sweated out a limited nuclear test ban treaty; and
we have worked out a treaty not to arm the unarmed environment
of outer space.
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Now, if we can agrees we have a chance to forego a new
weapons system before it has been widely deployed.
Let me say at once that the Soviet Union fias shown no
interest at all in a moratorium on ABM deployment as such —
a suggestion which has drawn wide attention in the US and
elsewhere.

That argument that ABM's represent "the next

round of the arms race'! does not seem so far to'have struck
home with the Soviet leaders.
But we cannot rule but the possibility that the Soviet
• •••••• •

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Union might consider a curb on ABM's as part of a wider agreement,
'"•

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.'i! And so my government has come to this three-point decision
'\y ohEthe AK! issue;
Ones

We have decided to continue to pursue vigorously

the development, test and evaluation of the NIKE X system but
to take no action now to deploy the system.

The President has

included about $440 million in his proposed 1967-68 budget
for this purpose.
Two; As I informed the Council on January 19 we have
decided to start negotiations with the Soviet Union to
attempt to develop a basis for an agreement tb^limit the
deployment of anti-ballistic missile systems,
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13,

We will reconsider the deployment question in the

event these discussions prove unsuccessful.

We have included

$375 million in the 1967-68 budget request to provide for such
action as may be necessary at that time —

for example, the

production of NIKE X for the defense of our offensive weapons
systems,

\

You will have noticed that in speaking of our studies
and our tentative conclusions, I have hardly mentioned the
implications for NATO, and especially for the European members
of the Alliance, of this new and costly defensive technology.
Of course we have some preliminary thought's about all this —
but both we and you, our allies, need to think longer and
harder about it —

and think about it together.

The NATO and

European angles to the unfolding ABM story cannot, and should
nots be tackled by the United States a l o n g — and this is a
prime reason for this consultation and those to follow.
And beyond these consultations and the discussions this
week among our disarmament experts, we expect a full discussion
of ABM's, including our own preliminary technical evaluations,
at the first meeting of the NATO Nuclear Planni^Grol^|^which is
to be held in Washington just one month from today.

We would

hope thus to work with allies in thinking through the policy
• - :• -*• . H

issues which will face us in NATO whether the Soviets slow
down or speed up their anti-missile deployment.
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On January 10, in his State of the Union address, President
Johnson noted that the Soviets were emplacing ABM's around
Moscow and spoke once again of the urgent need for controlling
the arms race.

To this end Ambassador Dobrynin had been

sounded out. as to whether the Soviets would be interested in
,M

•••.•••

exploring means to prevent a new round of escalation in/the
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strategic arms race, especially in view of Soviet deployment
of ABM's around Moscow.
On January 18, Ambassador Dobrynin reported orally to
Secretary Rusk that the Soviet government would be prepared
to hear any suggestions that the US government wished to
advance on the question of curbing the arms race so long as
strategic offensive systems as well as defensive systems are
covered.

As you will recall, I reported this to the Council

on the following day.
On January 24, in his Budget Message to the Congress the
President provided contingency funding for initiating ABM
r =• - • - y&lt;* *r*

production in the event a decision is made later this year to
go ahead but pointed out that the whole question would be
reconsidered in the light of discussions then being initiated
with the Soviet Union.
On January 27a Ambassador Thompson transmitted, through
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Mr. Gromyko, a message from the President to Mr. Kosygin,
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noting our readiness to consider offensive strategic missiles
• ./.-j, •

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as w e l l as ABM's.
"%r'"B%!"'" "'"'

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On February 18;, Ambassador Thompson saw Mr, Kosygin after
the latter° s return from London, and Kosygin indicated that a
reply to the President's letter would be made soon.
On February 28, a letter from Kosygin to President Johnson
was given Ambassador Thompson by Mr, Gromyko.
On March 2 the President announced that the Kosygin letter
confirmed the willingness of the Soviet Government to discuss
means of limiting the arms race in offensive arid defensive
nuclear missiles.
It is clear that the Soviets now look to us to make the
next move, and we are actively engaged in Washington in preparing
a position to put to the Soviet Union.
Thats Mr, Chairman,, is the current state of play in
this affair.

""

It is not possible at this point to forecast the course
or the duration of negotiations once they get down to
substantive detail.

But as President Johnson already has

made clear, we intend to discuss this matter fully with our
allies, so we anticipate coming back to the Council with this
subject before starting substantive talks in Moscow,
Meanwhile, the Disarmament Experts begin their semi-annual
meeting today and will be discussing:, among other things,
ABM's in the context of the strategic arms race,

I know

we HBhall all be following their deliberations\and looking
forward to the excellent work we have come to*expect from
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this valuable and increasingly important adjunct of the
Council.
And as I mentioned earlier, the Nuclear Planning Group
will be going deeply into the subject of ABM's on our behalf.

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THE UNDERLINED PORTIONS
0 ? THIS PAPER ARE
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Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur Tacces a Tinformati
TECHNICAL ANNiX TO STATEMENT
BY AMBASSADOR• CLEVELAND M
NAC MEETING, MARCH 7 , 19&amp;7

THE NIKE-X SYSTEM
The system would consist of a number of different types of
phased-array radars and two types of interceptor missiles,
which could be deployed in a variety of configurations:
- The Multi-function Array Radar (MAR) is a very powerful phased-array radar designed to perform all the defense
functions involved in engaging a.large, sophisticated attack;
central control and battle management, long-range search,
acquisition of the target, discrimination of warheads .from
decoys or "spoofing" devices, precision tracking ;pf the target,
and control of the defense interceptor missiles.
- The TACMAR Radar is a scaled down, slightly less complex and less powerful version of the MAREwhichEis designed
to perform all the basic defense functions in a smaller, less
sophisticated attack.
- The Perimeter Acquisition Radar (MR) ik'ac^l^i^fiy,
low frequency, phased-array radar required for the very~16ng~
rangePTieareh and acquisition functions involved.in area defense,
To achieve the full potential of the "extended-rangei SPARTAN,
the target must be picked up at much greater distances in
order to compute its trajectory before the SPARTAN is fired.
- The Missile Site Radar (MSR) is a much smaller, phasedarray radar needed to control the SPRINT and SPARTAN interceptor missiles during an engagement. It is also designed to
perform the functions of the TACMAR but on a considerably
reduced scale. A number of different sizes are being studied.
The "modular" approach would permit tailoring the capacity
of the radar to the particular needs of each area to be
defended,
- The SPARTAN~-succeeding the original ZEUS—is a longrange three-stage missile with a nuclear warhead capable of
intercepting incoming objects at a range of over 400 nautical

miles and at a l t i t u d e s of up to'TSjJ^naujlcal m i l e s .

~

- The SPRINT i s a h i g h - a c c e l e r a t i on short-rang e i n t e r ceptor m i s s i l e which can climb to 80,000 f e e t r i n 10 secbndg.
I t i s designed_To~m^e interjeepts between 5,000 and 100,001?
feet a t a range ofjap to lS5 milesT! ~~
NATOESECRET

�Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur Tacces a /'information

NATO SECRET
%

The technical.principles involved in the radars are now
fairly well established. One R&amp;D MAR-type radiar has been
constructed at the White Sands Missile Range. EA contract has
been |let for the power plant of a second MAR-type radar, which
is to be constructed on Kwajaleln Atoll.. The^Missile Site
Radar is well along in development arid.the construction of one
of these radars on Kwajaleln Atoll has also begun.
Testing of the SPRINT missile was started at White Sands
in November 1965 with one complete success, two p a r t i a l "
successes and three failures. *~THe^"failuresare attributed ^,
mostly~^~j^g. u:f ii c ^ r i'C"^^^^y control but some ofEthe. mis^ri
s i 1 e 'ITliromp^^
d. The tempo of "the
testing will steadily increase during the current fiscal year
and we are advised by our technical people that the missile
^ l ? " J 7 ® n t " a j ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ " 3 £ . - i £ ^ - . goals i The nuclear warhead
Ts'alsb weTX~along in deve*To^enl__an&lt;r~does not appear to
preserrb any garTTcinr^Ep^o^g^"
'
•,
' ~
The SPARTAN is still on the drawing,boards * It represents
a1 very substantial redesign of the original ZEUS arid we will
not k n o w until it is flight tested a year -anda'half henc'e how
well it will perform.
Facilities for testing both the SPRINT and the SPARTAN
will be constructed on Kwajaleln Atoll. These, together with
the TACMAR and MSR and the programs for the computers will
give us all.of the major elements of the NIKE-X system which
are essential to test its overall performance against re-entry
vehicles fired from Vandenberg Air Force, Base in California.
(We feel we know enough about the PAR technology to be able to
use the mechanically steered radars already on Kwajaleln as
simulators.) The system will be tested in stages, starting
with the MSR and SPRINT tests in January 1969, thenTthe SPARTAN
""^.sil|3_ig_july 1969 and the TACMAR radar between July and •
T}ecemlJer^TS707 Upwards oT^TO^tei^t_shotsTEyTlTl"be- launched from
s ^ T m p o r T a n T n o b ^ e c T T v F T o f
this effort is to determirie"~proper system integration and "X\
computer programming, since the individual components of, the
system will have already been, tested ahead of time.

NATO SECRET
000318

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              <text>Transcript from US Delegation to North Atlantic Council </text>
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              <text>RG25-A-3-c, file 27-11-7, "DEFENCE - CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS - ANTI - BALLISTIC MISSILES (ABM) = DEFENSE - ARMEMENTS DE TYPE CLASSIQUE ET NUCLEAIRE - ENGINS ANTIMISSILES (ABM)," vol. 10357, part 2, Library and Archives Canada, (LAC).</text>
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              <text>Statement by Ambassador Cleveland at Special Meeting of the Council, March 7, 1967</text>
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