https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/d3ffa93663c620c2833f4f15e12b900f.pdf de566728fd64c5884e7e776149e45cd1 PDF Text Text Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information t ^rl^K) FM WASHDC F E B 2 1 / 6 7 CONED TO EXTERNL 7 1 4 INFO LDN NATOPARIS EM3PARIS DISARMDELGVA TT MCOW DE LDN EEF YOURTEL N54 FEBl ABM DEPLOYMENT DEBATE ON QUESTION OF BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCEC BMD)CONTINUES IN AN ATMOSPHERE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS REGARDS SOVIET INTENTIONS, ON QUESTION, OF TALKS PROPOSED BY PRESIDENT JOHNSON AMD CONFLICTING ESTIMATES OF USA AND USSR CAPABILITIES.NO RPT NO OFFICIAL STATEMENTS HERE,EITHER PUBLIC OR. PRIVATE,HAVE PROVIDED ELUCIDATION OF WHAT USA AND USSR REPS MAY BE PREPARED TO DiSCUSS OR MAY IN FACT BE DISCUSSING.THERE I S NOTHING BUT AIRIEST OF SPECULATION ON THIS SUBJECT BUT, OF COURSE, THERE I S PLENTY OF THAT. IN ABSENCE OF QUOTE HARD UNQUOTE INFO WE OFFER FOLLOWING IN RESPONSE TO YOUR REQUEST FOR ASSESSMENT OFCA)CONGRESSIONAL FEELINGS OM ABM DEPLOYMENT AND (B)PLACE OCCUPIED BY SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS DISARMAMENT SUBCTTEE AND ITS .MEMBERS IN CONGRESSIONAL CTTEE PICTURE WITH PARTICULAR REF TO WHAT EFFECT VIEWS EXPRESSED 8Y THAT SUBCTTEE COULD HAVE ON CTTEES DEALING WITH DEFENCE MATTERS. 2.YOU POINTED OUT IN' REFTEL THAT NO RPT NO REPORT YOU HAD SEEN HAD EXAMINED IN DETAIL STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION OF PRO-ABM ELEMENTS. STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION OF PR0-A3M ELEMENTS I S JUST ABOUT AS FLUID AS ANTI-ABM ELEMENTS.IT I S PR03ABLY FOR THAT REASONS THAT DETAILED ANALYSIS OF STRENGTHS AND CONFIGURATIONS OF BOTH SIDES 000273 * • * i£l . �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information PAGE^TWO 7 14 CONFD IN DEBATE HAS NOT RPT NOT BEEN ATTEMPTED.IT FOLLOWS THAT STRENGTH OF PRESSURE THAT MAY BE EXERTED ON ADMIN REGARDING THIS QUESTION I S VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE AND PROBABLY POINTLESS TO ANALYSE AND ASSESS BECAUSE IT CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON FACTORS THAT MAY BE ONLY TANGENTIALLY OR NOT RPT NOT AT ALL RELATED TO DEFENCE,EG ELECTORAL OR ECONOMIC OR REGIONAL CONSIDERATIONS. 3 . T H I S BEING SAID ONE MAY PERHAPS SUGGEST WITH REASONABLE CERTAINTY SOME CONSIDERATIONS WHICH WILL PREDISPOSE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF AND MEMBERS OF CONGRESSCPARTICULARLY HOUSE OF REPS) IN FAVOUR OF ABM DEFENCE. JCS HAVE AMONG THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES FORMULATION AND EXECUTION OF PLANS FOR DEFENCE OF USA.THUS WHILE THEY MIGHT NOT RPT NOT DISAGREE WITH SYSTEMS ANALYSTS CONCLUSION THAT IMPROVEMENT OF OFFENSIVE CAPABILITY I S MORE COST EFFECTIVE THAN DEFENSIVE MEASURES THIS-WOULD NOT RPT NOT AFFECT THEIR ARGUMENT THAT BOTH SHOULD BE PROVIDED.MEMBERS OF HOUSE OF REPS ARE ELECTED PREDOMINANTLY FROM AREAS OF MEDIUM TO HIGH POPULATION DENSITY.NEED TO BE RESPONSIVE TO CONCERNS OF THIS ELECTORS,WHO MAY NOT RPT NOT FIND MUCH COMFORT IN COST-EFFECTIVENESS ARGUMENT,IS LIKELY TO INCLINE CONGRESSMEN TOWARDS DEPLOYMENT OF WHAT CAN BE REPRESENTED AS A DAMAGE LIMITING AND LIFE SAVING SYSTEM.ANY SERIOUS UNDEREMPLOYMENT OE SEGMENTS OF AEROSPACE INDUSTRY WOULD ALSO BE FACTOR.AS REGARDS COST ONE CANNOT'RPT NOT LIGHTLY DISMISS APPEAL OF ASSERTIONS SUCH AS THOSE OF SENATOR ELLENDER WHO I S RELIABLY REPORTED TO HAVE COMMENTED ON 40 BILLION DOLLARS FIGURE FOR AN ABM SYSTEM THAT THIS �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information i PAGE THREE 714 CONFD COULD EASILY BE HANDLED .OVER A TEN YEAR PERIOD BY CUTTING DOWN • ON SOME OF PRESIDENT JOHNSONS DOMESTIC PROGRAMS.SIMILARLY CONGRESSMAN MENDEL RIVER,CHAIRMAN OF HOUSE ARMED SERVICES CTTEE, IS ON RECORD AS STATING QUOTE I DONT KNOW WHY A NATION APPROACHING A TRILLION DOLLARS IN GNP CANT AFFORD A GADGET TO PROTECT-ITS CIVILIZATION UNQUOTE. . ' 4.IT IS AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND OF SIMPLISTIC BUT NONETHELESS APPEALING ARGUMENT THAT EFFORTS OF DEFENCE SECRETARY MCNAMARA AND OTHERS OPPOSED TO AEM DEPLOYMENT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE SEEN. MCNAMARA HAS LOST NO RPT NO OPPORTUNITY TO ARGUE NOT RPT NOT ONLY THAT COST OF BMD SYSTEM WOULD BE ENORMOUS BUT ALSO THAT REGARDLESS OF COST IT WOULD PROBABLY BE INEFFECTIVE IN THAT IT COULD NOT RPT NOT PREVENT MANY MILLIONS OF CASUALTIES. THIS LATTER ARGUMENT MAY APPEAL TO CONGRESSMEN BUT ONE CANNOT RPT NOT BE AT ALL CERTAIN OF THIS.POSSIBILITY OF REPUBLICANS ALLEGING A QUOTE MISSILE DEFENCE .GAP UNQUOTE IN 1968 JUST AS DEMOCRATS ALLEGED A QUOTE MISSILE GAP UNQUOTE IN 1960 MUST BE CONSIDERED. 5.AS REGARDS DISARMAMENT SUBCTTEE OF SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS CTTEE, ITS MEMBERSHIP IS SMALL,CONSISTING OF FIVE DEMOCRATIC SENATORS (GORE,CHURCH,SYMINGTON,CLARK AND PELL)AND TWO REPUBLICANS (HICKENLOOPER AND AIKEN).ITS INFLUENCE IS NOT RPT NOT NECESSARILY COMMENSURATE WITH ITS SIZE BUT IN RELATION TO OTHER CONGRESSIONAL CTTEES ITS IMPORTANCE SHOULD NOT RPT MOT BE OVER ESTIMATED. NEVERTHELESS STATEMENTS OF ANY SENATOR OR GROUP-OF SENATORS COMMAND PUBLIC ATTN PARTICULARLY'ON A SUBJECT AS MUCH IN PUBLIC EYE AS �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu 'de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information PAGE FOUR 714 CONFD NUCLEAR MISSILES.IT MAY THEREFORE BE EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE PRESS COVERAGE OF FUTURE HEARINGS OF SUBCTTEE ON QUESTION OF BMD PARTICULARLY WHENEVER HEARINGS ARE OPEN TO PUBLIC. 6. ONLY CONCLUSIONS WE THINK CAN BE DRAWN AT THIS TIME ARE(A) THAT GIVEN MYRIAD IMPONDERABLES THAT WILL INFLUENCE THEIR VIEWS, -. • IT I S TOO SOON TO DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ON WHAT CONGRESSMEN WILL HAVE TO SAY INDIVIDUALLY AND COLLECTIVELY ON BMD IN COMING MONTHS (B)THAT ADMIN POSITION,WHICH INEVITABLY w'lLL BE DETERMINED BY AS YET UNPREDICTABLE EVENTS (EG OUTCOME OF PRESENT EXPLORATORY EXCHANGES WITH RUSSIANS),CANNOT RPT NOT BE PREDICTED AND(C)THAT POSITIONS TAKEN IN CONGRESS AND ADMIN ON BMD WILL NOT RPT NOT NECESSARILYBE BASED ENTIRELY ON OBJECTIVE APPRECIATION OF EITHER UTILITY OR COST OF DEFENSIVE SYSTEM. 000276 � Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDBM00070 Title A name given to the resource DC to External 714 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2/21/1967 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived RG25-A-3-c, file 27-11-7, "DEFENCE - CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS - ANTI - BALLISTIC MISSILES (ABM) = DEFENSE - ARMEMENTS DE TYPE CLASSIQUE ET NUCLEAIRE - ENGINS ANTIMISSILES (ABM)," vol. 10357, part 2, Library and Archives Canada, (LAC). Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource External Affairs Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Anti-ballistic missiles Description An account of the resource ABM Deployment Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF Language A language of the resource en