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D 7-J FM WASHDC DEC8/66 SECRET TO EXTERNL 3725 PRIORITY INFO NATOPARIS LDN TT CFHQ DE OTT ttslhl REF OURTEL 3677 DEC5 USA DEFENCE:ANTI3ALLISTIC MISSILE SYSTEM ft >^-//-' MCNAMARAS STATEMENT NOV 10 CONCERNING SOVIET BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM DEPLOYMENT COUPLED WITH HIS REMARKS CONCERNING USA PRODUCTION AND DEPLOYMENT OF THE POSEIDON MISSILE TO REPLACE THE POLARIS HAS PROMPTED A RASH OF PRESS SPECULATION AS TO WHAT DECISION THE ADMIN WILL BE TAKING IN THE COMING WEEKS OR MONTHS ON THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT RPT NOT TO DEPLOY THE NIKE X SYSTEM.AS YOU KNOW THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN THE DEVELOPMENT STAGE FOR YEARS.THE DEFENCE BUDGET HAS ANNUALLY CONTAINED AN ITEM OF ROUGHLY HALF A BILLION DOLLARS FOR THIS PURPOSE.LAST YEAR CONGRESS APPROPRIATED ABOUT 153 MILLION DOLLARS MORE THAN WAS REQUESTED TO ENABLE DOD TO MAKE A START ON PRODUCTION OF THOSE ITEMS FOR WHICH THERE IS A LONG LEAD TIME,EG HIGHLY COMPLEX AND SOPHISTICATED ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS. NONE OF THIS QUOTE PRODUCTION UNQUOTE MONEY HAS YET BEEN COMMITTED AND OUR INFO IS THAT AT THIS STAGE THERE IS NO RPT NO ITEM IN THE 1968 DEFENCE BUDGET FOR PRODUCTION.(THIS COULD,OF COURSE,BE CHANGED TOMORROW. )THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT MCNAMARA INTENDS TO CONTINUE TO QUOTE WAIT AND SEE UNQUOTE WHILE KEEPING ALL OPTIONS OPEN AND IN THE MEANTIME TO RELY FOR DETERRENCE ON IMPROVEMENTS TO USA OFFENSIVE CAPABILITY BY INCREASING MISSILES RANGE,PUNCH AND PENETRATION �> ^ . . - i jflHiifi'ftS&bik^ -; •••*•• 0-#-&*&*fe£~*2£7 • -> - ^^^•***^gy^^ l ^*^!£Sfea^^lssKSS Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'infdrm'ation I PAGE TWO 3725 SECRET ABILITIES THROUGH INTRODUCTION OF POSEIDON AND IMPROVEMENTS IN MINUTEMAN RATHER THAN BECOME COMMITTED TO A DEFENCE SYSTEM WHICH, DEPENDING ON WHETHER IT INVOLVED ONLY LONG RANGE NIKE ZEUS MISSILES OR A COMPLETE SYSTEM INCLUDING BOTH THE NIKE ZEUS AND THE SHORT RANGE QUOTE SPRINT UNQUOTE MISSILES COULD COST FROM 10 TO 30 OR 40 BILLION DOLLARS OVER THE LIFE OF THE PROGRAM. 2.THOUGH ON PAST FORM POSTPONEMENT OF A DECISION WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY COURSE FOR THE ADMIN TO FOLLOW IT IS BY NO RPT NO MEANS INCONCEIVABLE THAT PRESIDENT MIGHT DECIDE THAT A CHINESE (/ THREAT IS SUFFICIENTLY REAL AND IMMINENT THAT A START SHOULD BE MADE ON PRODUCTION AND DEPLOYMENT OF A QUOTE THIN DEFENCE UNQUOTE, IE ONE USING ONLY NIKE ZEUS MISSILES.SUCH A DEPLOYMENT,IT IS ARGUED BY ADVOCATES OF AN ABM SYSTEM,WOULD IMPROVE THE CREDIBILITY OF USA OFFENSIVE POSTURE WHILE PROVIDING PROTECTION AGAINST CONTINGENCIES SUCH AS AN IRRATIONAL OR ACCIDENTAL SMALL SCALE LAUNCHING FROM USSR.THERE IS NO RPT NO INDICATION WHAT THE PRESIDENTS DECISION WILL BE BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE ISSUE IS BEING DEBATED WITHIN THE ADMIN AS WELL AS IN PUBLIC.(IN THIS CONNECTION SEE MAX FRANKEL REPORT PAGE 1 OF DEC7 NY TIMES.) 3.THE QUESTION THAT OCCURRED TO US WHEN WE FIRST READ MCNAMARAS STATEMENT AND TO WHICH WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO FIND AN ANSWER IS WHY HE CHOSE TO MAKE HIS STATEMENT ON NOV 10.A NUMBER OF EXPLANATIONS HAVE BEEN OFFERED OR CAN BE INFERRED.PERHAPS PARTS OF THE ANSWER CAN BE FOUND IN ALL OF THEM,THE FIRST AND MOST OBVIOUS •. • 3 // �aCi.'-0 Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information i PAGE THREE 3725 SECRET EXPLANATION FOR THE DATE CHOSEN IS THAT IT WAS THE FIRST OCCASION ON WHICH MCNAMARA HAD CONFERRED WITH PRESIDENT AFTER THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS.IT WAS TO US THE EARLIEST DATE ON WHICH HE COULD DOWNGRADE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CHINESE NUCLEAR TEST ON 0CT27CWKICH USA OFFICIALS ADMIT INDICATED MUCH GREATER PROGRESS BY CHINESE IN DEVELOPING BOTH A NUCLEAR DEVICE AND A DELIVERY SYSTEM THAN HAD BEEN THOUGHT POSSIBLE)BY FOCUSSING ATTN ON THE MORE SERIOUS AND IMMED IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF DETERRENCE POSED BY ABM DEPLOYEMENT IN USSR. 4.A FURTHER EXPLANATION OF THE TIMING OF MCNAMARAS STATEMENT COULD BE THAT A SUFFICIENT PERIOD WOULD BE PROVIDED FOR THE EXPRESSION OF PUBLIC REACTION AND FOR THE PUBLIC TO BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE IDEA OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEFENCE SPENDING IN 1967-68.THERE HAVE BEEN MANY PREDICTIONS OF THIS COUPLED WITH PRESIDENTIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS OF CUTS IN FEDERAL SPENDING ON CIVIL PROJECTS.(IN ANNOUNCING YESTERDAY THAT SUPPLEMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS OF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 BILLION FOR VIETNAM CONFLICT WOULD BZ SOUGHT FOR THE CURRENT FISCAL YEAR(BRINGING TOTAL DEFENSE BUDGET TO 67 BILLION).PRESIDENT JOHNSON INDICATED HIS INTENTION TO SUBMIT TO NEXT CONGRESS A DEFENSE BUDGET FOR THE WHOLE 1968 FISCAL YEAR,AVOIDING SUPPLEMENTAL REQUEST WHICH HAVE BEEN NECESSARY IN 1966 AND 1967 FISCAL YEAR.) 5.RATHER MORE DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN IS THE RELATIONSHIP OF NOG10 STATEMENT TO THE DECISION TAKEN AT CABINET LEVEL TO HAVE A BRIEFING DELIVERED AT THE OCT MTG OF PJBD ON THE GENERAL STRATEGIC AND ...4 000136 ~~. �•-•fsr*.**.» *> '•.• V mm fa*; -••-• Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I information PAGE FOUR 3725 SECRET POLITICAL PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECISION TO DEPLOY AN ABM SYSTEM.A SIMILAR BRIEFING WAS,AS YOU KNOW,GIVEN AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME TO BRIT AUTHORITIES AND A RATHER MORE GENERAL BRIEFING WAS GIVEN AT MTG OF NATO DISARMAMENT EXPERTS.FROM INFORMAL CONVERSATIONS WITH RUFUS SMITH AND STRAUS,USA SEC OF PJBD WE GATHER THAT A RESPONSE TO THE BRIEFING GIVEN BY SMITH TO PJBD,EITHER BY WAY OF COMMENTS OR REQUESTS FOR FURTHER INFO,WOULD QE WELCOME.IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES ONE MIGHT SPECULATE THAT A DECISION HAD BEEN TAKEN SOME TIME AGO TO AIR THE QUESTION OF ABM DEPLOYMENT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AFTER THE ELECTIONS AND IT WAS THOUGHT THAT IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL TO HAVE CDN AND BRIT VIEWS ON THIS QUESTION BEFOREHAND. • 6.ALL THIS IS,OF COURSE,HIGHLY SPECULATIVE.EVEN MORE SPECULATIVE WOULD BE AN ASSESSMENT OF WHAT MIGHT BE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR CDA IF i ' . USA ADMIN WERE TO TAKE A DECISION IN THE NEAR FUTURE TO GO AHEAD WITH PRODUCTION AND DEPLOYMENT OF AN ASM SYSTEM.RUFUS SMITHS BRIEFING OF PJBD DID NOT RPT NOT TOUCH ON NORTHAMERICAN DEFENCE • :; \ AND IN RELLY TO A QUESTION ON NOV 10 AS TO WHAT WAS MEANT BY QUOTE • ji-. DEPLOYMENT UNQUOTE MCNAMARA REPLIED QUOTE PRODUCTION AND LOCATION i OF UNITS IN USA UNQUOTE. I ' • • 7.WE SHALL CONTINUE TO SEEK INFO ON USA INTENTIONS WITH RESPECT TO » . ABM DEFENCE.WE SHOULD BE GRATEFUL FOR ANY GUIDANCE YOU COULD GIVE li US ON BASIS OF DISCUSSION IN PJBD OR OTHERWISE. // � Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDBM00035 Title A name given to the resource DC to External 3725 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 12/8/1966 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived RG25-A-3-c, file 27-11-7, "DEFENCE - CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS - ANTI - BALLISTIC MISSILES (ABM) = DEFENSE - ARMEMENTS DE TYPE CLASSIQUE ET NUCLEAIRE - ENGINS ANTIMISSILES (ABM)," vol. 10357, part 1, Library and Archives Canada, (LAC). Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource External Affairs Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Anti-ballistic missiles Description An account of the resource USA Defence: ABM System Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF Language A language of the resource en