https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/f8438e22fe3707df8f294fcb5f3e4e0f.pdf 2879c91f38e39495aa716b2b8fd2d1bb PDF Text Text Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information EXTERNAL AFFAIRS 'MEMORANDUM TO Defence Liaison (1) Division cR ?3t £-"s AFFAIRES EXTERIEURES SECURITY Sicurili DATE FROM Oe Far Eastern Division REFERENCE Itiforcnce Your memorandum of October 28 SUBJECT Sujef Anti-Ballistic Missiles DISTRIBUTION Mr. Goldschlag African and Middle Eastern Division D.L.(2) Div. Disarm. Div. European Div. November 2 2 , 1966 NUMBER Hvmfro FILE OTTAWA DOSSIER ^^**==3 11H-1 M1SSICN o.'•~3 ENCLOSURES Anntxtt SECRET 7-7-/V-3 In dealing with the Communist Chinese nuclear threat, the American paper which you sent us under cover of your memorandum under reference makes a number of assumptions with which we would on the whole agree. We would agree in particular, for example, as stated on page 8 of the American paper, that Communist China's nuclear weapons programme will probably not lead automatically to the adoption of a policy of military rocklessness in general or nuclear rocklessness in particular, In the.following point, some doubt seems to be implied as to the strict rationality of. Chinese decisions, in the phrase "as long as they proceed on the basis of rational decision"; we think that this element of doubt is important. We should not, in our view, exclude the possibility of an obstinately dogmatic approach on the part of the Chinese leaders to problems of nuclear strategy and deterrence. We should probably be prepared for a measure of dogmatism or even perhaps of irrationality in their weighing, for example, of the extent to which Chinese nuclear capabilities may lessen the risk of U.S.A. reactions to aggressive Chinese moves at lower levels at conflict. 2. We would expect that most of the Asian countries which will feel threatened by Chinese nuclear capabilities will be aware of this element of irrationality or at least of dogmatism. To this extent they may be all the more concerned about the future dependability of the U.S.A. The paper points out that the existence of an American ABM defence against China might have contradictory effects: it might help to reduce any doubts on this score, or it might give rise to fears that the U.S.A. would be free and willing to opt out of Asian conflicts. Present events in Vietnam are relevant here: presumably the Asians consider that the U.S.A. has assessed the possibilities of a confrontation with the U.S.S.R. over Vietnam at some stage and has not, in the face of such a danger, reneged on what it sees as its coinmitments. r 3. We are not entirely clear, however, what the paper means when it speaks of Asian fears of U.S.A. "opting out". 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' O p cn S ft rr o p -• tn r t P rt 3 o" r r o o tt 3 I-I ro ro ro rr cn 3 rr •3 ro r t r t1 pi-i p . < oo ro r> ro ro to r t o O c; 3 < ro H i K n rt O 1 1 N> O o Q. n O VI 7 ^ e+ i O 5 lo .Ss 5' H- fl ft ^ 5' o3 Q' •^ Q 3" 5" ^o ri ri ^ C tn ^6 h-j. r» c^ fD OT_ b f l * c < fD> Ul fD fD 3 Q. E fD 3 . 3 Q fD (ST c < C Q. 3 i-l- 3 nc fD 3 3 i-l- fD c O n o �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information SECRET - 36. It seems to us,.therefore, that in order to suppose that the U.S.A.'s friends and allies in Asia would be disturbed by the freedom to "opt out" which ABMs could confer on the. U.S.A., we have to ascribe to them an interpretation of the U.S.A.'s motives for involvement in Asia which we very much doubt that they have, 7. On secondary points, we would also qualify some of the other ideas advanced in the U.S.A. paper. We .would not, for example, place excessive weight on the consideration advanced in the first full paragraph of page 12, about the possible enhancement of Chinese nuclear strength resulting from ABM deployment against it. As the Communist Chinese threat becomes real, we would expect Asians to be so impressed by the demonstrated fact of the threat itself that the. effect of the development by the U.S.A. of ABM defences against it might be marginal. As for the last point in that paragraph, concerning the problems which might arise because Americans (white and rich) could defend themselves while Asians (coloured and poor) could not, we would be inclined to think that these feelings would be far outweighed by the realization that the fact that the Americans could defend themselves meant also that they had the immunity necessary to defend their Asian, friends or allies. 8. We advance these points as additional considerations; we do not feel that we could or ought to.draw any conclusions from them as to the deisirability or otherwise of a U.S.A. deployment of ABMs against China. Conclusions on that point would require, at least, answers to the sort of questions advanced by Disarmament Division in their memorandum of November -14. W.E. BAUER Far Eastern Division (Retyped: jfi ' ) (Checked: \7 i>X) 000116 � Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDBM00030 Title A name given to the resource Memorandum from Far East Division Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 11/22/1966 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived RG25-A-3-c, file 27-11-7, "DEFENCE - CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS - ANTI - BALLISTIC MISSILES (ABM) = DEFENSE - ARMEMENTS DE TYPE CLASSIQUE ET NUCLEAIRE - ENGINS ANTIMISSILES (ABM)," vol. 10357, part 1, Library and Archives Canada, (LAC). Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource External Affairs Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Anti-ballistic missiles Description An account of the resource ABMs Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF Language A language of the resource en