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.

'TO

ERNAL AFFAIRS

D« L. (1) Division

Document disclosed under the /lecess to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information
AFFAIRES EXTERIEURES

SECURITY

SECRET

SfcuHU

FROM

European Division

REFERENCE

lOUT

memorandum of October 28

DATE

November 3* 1966

NUMBER
Num.ro
DOSSIER

SUBJECT

Anti-BaUistic Missiles

*^7~//' 7
MISSION

ENCIOSURES

DISTIf»UTtON

v-.Robinson
p. Collins
ar Eastern Div
isarmament Div
•.L.(2) Div
.. &amp; ME

With your memorandum under reference you asked for our
comments on the attached copy of an anti-ballistic missile briefing
given to the recent meeting of the Canada-United States PJBD by the
United States representatives* This is an interesting but difficult
paper which, as you point out, touches on a wide range of the
problems relevant to Canadian foreign policy. We have not attempted
to prepare a comprehensive commentary but the following comments aire
intended to focus attention on what seem to us to be some of the main
elements of the paper*
2»
First, the implication of the section, on "the ABM and the
U.S.-Soviet balance of deterrence" seems to be. that there are no
compelling arguments for the time being at least in favour of a
decision to deploy an ABM system against the USSR. ifjSts.yLs
suggested at the beginning of this section, the ABM does not offer
the prospects of "perfect defence", it is reasonable to conclude,
in the absence of other factors which could'outweigh this consideration,
that the "Balance of deterrence" will continue to depend primarily on
the bEilance of strategic offensive capabilities. This conclusion
is not substantially affected by the answers offered to any of the four
key questions examined in this section, and seems to us to accord
with the politics^;ahd military facts of U.S.-Soviet relations as we
know them, • --**
'.: ,.'•
3«
Secondly, there is a further question that seems to us relevant
to this section of the paper but which is not asked, explicitly at least.
That is, whether in the present circumstances the so-called "balance of
deterrence" really rests on anything approaching an equal balance of
strategic capabilities or rather on a safe margin of United States
strategic superiority. This, question is also relevant to the subject
...2

Ext. 4 0 7 A / M .
(Admin. Services Div.)

000091

�Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgu^efnrertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information

- 2 -

examined in the later section on "Soviet thinking on implications on
ABM deployment". In other words, is it not possible that the Soviet
emphasis on strategic air defence is at least partly explained by
their acceptance of the inevitability of a certain margin of United
States strategic superiority?
U.
Thirdly, the implication of the section on "the ABM and
Communist China" seems to be that on balance there would be advantage
in developing what is called a "light" ABM defence against Communist
China. This, in spite of the fact that the three basic considerations
examined under the heading "the Chicom nuclear threat to the U.S." do
not substantially affect the conclusion mentioned above in connection
with the USSR, that the "balance of deterrence" will continue to
rely on the balance of strategic offensive capabilities. What seems
to determine the different conclusion reached in the case of Communist
China is an element that is not openly mentioned, namely that in the
case of the USSR the basic assump£I«rbn both sides is that the other
side wishes to avoid a direct~"arme3 conflict, whereas in the case of
Communist China this assumption is not made.

'7 lfiki7740&lt;7Xt^
European Division

000092

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              <text>RG25-A-3-c, file 27-11-7, "DEFENCE - CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS - ANTI - BALLISTIC MISSILES (ABM) = DEFENSE - ARMEMENTS DE TYPE CLASSIQUE ET NUCLEAIRE - ENGINS ANTIMISSILES (ABM)," vol. 10357, part 1, Library and Archives Canada, (LAC).</text>
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