https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/ca7e809a5acbb43a63ee514ec1b7ed6c.pdf 5fb6f4a09af4fb1929912eab5da505b0 PDF Text Text Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la l o i sur I'acces a I'information 4 JIBTS 200-2113-2 TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY nmmm TO mm ATOMIC VUINERABILITY STUDY OF THE CITY OF VICTORIA I 1 Object of the Study KWCTASQKr This is one of a series of reports on major Canadian cities and targets which provide the basic information on enemy capabilities to cause damage to persons and to Vital Points by atomic attack. This study is not conoerned with the probability that such an enemy attack will be made. H Definitions of Terms Used Ground Zero - The point on the ground directly under the point of burst in the air Aiming Point - The point on the ground directly under the point where the bomb is aimed to be burst in the air No Rescue - No organized and trained rescue is carried out, which means effectively that only people who are not trapped Or who can escape by their own efforts survive Seriously Injured • Hospitalized persons who would not report to work for a considerable period of time Lightly Injured - First Aid cases who would be able to contribute to their work a few days after the attack Nighttime - The time during which people are in their normal places of residence Daytime - The time during whioh people are at their normal tlaces of work III Sources of Basio Information (a) population Information on the daytime and the nighttime distribution of population was obtained from the Civil Defence Director cf the City of Victoria (b) Military Establishments The military establishments important to the national war effort were chosen by the Joint Planning Committee. The Establishment in the Victoria area is listed in Appendix nAn, 000515 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY — 2 *• (e) Vital Points Information on other Vital Points was taken from the 1953 List of Vital Points, which is the work of the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points. The list for the '.Victoria area is given in Appendix "A". (d) Scientific Data Basic data on the effects of atomic bomb explosions on people and structures was prepared by the Defence Research Board (Scientific Adviser to the Civil Defence Co-Ordinator). IV Factors Oonsidered in Selecting Aiming Points for Study The effects of an attack on a city vary widely with the location of the bomb burst. As it is not considered practicable to study all possible points of burst, a series of Aiming Points have been selected which are calculated to give the maximvim effect on population and on differont groupings of Vital Points. The effects of an attack vary widely with the energy released by the bomb. As it is not possible to estimate the energy level of the bomb most likely to be used, separate estimates were made for a bomb with the lowest probable energy and the highest probable energy level. The effects on people also vary widely with circumstances of warning and rescue. A series of estimates were therefore made for different conditions of warning end rescue. The estimates made for conditions WITH RESCUE are for ideal rescue conditions with organized and trained rescue teams, in temperate climetes and when the atomic attack is unsupported by other weapons. In spite of rescue efforts casualties would tend towards those given for NO RESCUE under severe winter conditions, or if Chemical Warfare attack were combined with atomic attack or if the spread of fire were extensive. Conditions of visibility would also alter the effect of an attack. Poor visibility would reduce the extent of fire and the number of radiation casualties and would have some effect on the chances of pinpointing the target from the air. All calcvilations are based on an average clear day over a city with a visibility of about six miles. For the city of Victoria Ajmjng Points were chosen to give the maximvim effect on the daytime and on the nighttime distribution of population. Aiming Points were also chosen to give the maximvim effect on the Naval Dockyard, Esquimalt, and on Victoria Harbour. The present study is confined to the effect of a bomb delivered by an airborne vehicle. It is possible that Victoria, a port city with important Naval facilities would be a target for an undrwater burst. A separate study will be made of this type of attack. 000516 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN M E S ONLY - 3 - Results of the Study of the City of Victoria A daytime attack on Victoria could result in casualties among 50-65% of the population if a 20 Kiloton bomb were used, depending on conditions of warning and rescue; 60-80% if a 100 Kiloton bomb were used. A daytime attack on the Naval Dockyard,-Esquimalt, would result in casualties among 20-35% if a 20 Kiloton bomb were used; 25-60% if a 100 Kiloton bomb were used. An attaok on Victoria Harbour would result In 10-15% casualties by a 20 Kiloton bomb; 15-30% by a 100 ELloton bomb. A nighttime attack on this city could result in casualties among 30-45% of the population if a 20 Kiloton bomb were used, depending on conditions of warning and rescue; 45-70% if a 100 Kiloton bomb were used. A nighttime attack on the Naval Dockyard, Esquimalt, would result in casualties among 15-20% if a 20 Kiloton bomb were used; 25-45% if a 100 KLloton bomb were vised. An attack on Victoria Harbour would result in/10-10% casualties by a 20 ELloton bomb; 15-25% by a 100 ELloton bomb. (a) Effects on Population The effect of an attack on the daytime and nighttime population is given in Tables I and II for each Aiming Point and for different conditions of warning and resoue. (b) Effects on Vital Points A summary of the effect on Vital Points is given in Table III for each Aiming Point. The extent of damage to Vital Points and the effect on their various functions is also described below for each of the Aiming Points. The relative importance of each Vital Point to the Canadian - U.S. war effort is indicated by the category (AA, A, B or C ) , which is given for each Vital Point in Appendix n A w . A definition of each of the categories is also given in Appendix "A". �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY • 4 (c) Detailed Discussion of an Attack on Eaoh of the Aiming points Effeot of a Burst over Aiming; Point # I-D - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Daytime Distribution of Population by a 20 Kiloton Bomb A daytime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 50-65% of the popvilation depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). Damage to Vital points is described below: Shipbuilding and Repairing Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # I - Category A This plant would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 60-95% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # 2 - Category A Very severe structural building damage would be caused by blast and there is a probability that fire would cause complete destruction. Approximately 15-55% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Yarrows Limited - Category A No damage other than superficial would be caused to building and contents. Less than 5% of the shift on duty would be seriously injured. Government Graving D ock - Category A No damage would be caused to the Dry Dock by this type of attack. Naval Dockyard - Esquimalt No serious damage would be caused to any of the dockyard facilities by this attack. Victoria Harbour Wharves and Piers All important wharves and piers in the Inner Harbour would receive serious damage from blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. No serious damage would be caused to other important wharves or piers in Victoria Harbour. Transit Sheds Destroyed - all transit sheds in the Inner Harbour would be destroyed by blast and fire. Severe damage would be caused to the Canadian National Railway shed on Pier A. Slight damage - would be caused to the shed on Canadian * National Railway Pier B and United Grain Growers Terminal (Pier B ) . Grain Elevators and Cold Storage Warehouse No serious blast danage would be caused to either of these facilities, but there is a probability of damage from fire. 000518 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act - 1 Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information] f TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 5 * Shipbuilding and Repairing Damage to the major shipbuilding and repairing facilities is described above.. Shipping (transports, light cruisers and aircraft carriers) Sunk - no ships would be sunk or destroyed. Immobilized - ships berthed or anchored within the eastern half of the Inner Harbour would be immobilized by this attack. Slight damage - all other ships within Victoria Harbour east of the Victoria Machinery Depot jetties would receive slight damage to superstructure and external equipment. Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point #I-D - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Daytime Distribution of Population by a 100 Kiloton Bomb A daytime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 60-80% of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). Damage to those Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Repairing Yarrows Limited - Category A Severe structural building damage would be caused by blr-.st and there is a probability of further damage from fire. It is likely that some equipment could be salvaged. Approximately 10-20% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # I - Category A This plant would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 85-95% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # 2 - Category A This plant would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 45-90% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Government Graving Dock - Category A No damage would be caused to the Dry Dock by this t-"pe of attack. Naval Dockyard - Esquimalt Wharves and Piers No serious blast damage would be caused to Naval wharves and jetties by this attack and there is little probability of damage from fire. Administration The dockyard Administration Building would receive slight structural damage frcm blast but the probability of further damage from fire is low. Other important Administration Buildings would not be damaged by blast and there is a low probability of fire. 000519 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 6 Stores Slight structural blast damage would be caused to the main Bulk Stores Building, and the Chart Depot. All other major stores buildings would not be damaged by blast. The probability of fire in the area is low. Workshops No structural blast damage would be caused to the major workshops and the probability of damage from fire is low. RON Barracks (HMOS "Naden") No structural building damage would be caused by blast and the probability of fire is low. Victoria Harbour Wharves and Piers Very serious blast damage would be caused to all wharves and piers in the Inner Harbour and the probability of fire is high. There would be little or no serious blast damage to piers in the Outer Harbour. There is a probability of fire damage to Victoria Machinery Depot Piers I and 2. Transit Sheds All the important sheds in both the Inner and Outer Harbours would be destroyed by blast and fire. Grain Elevators and Cold Storage Warehouse No blast damage would be caused to the Grain Elevators but there is a high probability of fire. The Cold Storage "Warehouse would receive moderate structural damage from blast but the probability of further damage from fire is high. Shipbuilding and Repairing Damage to the major Shipbuilding and Repairing facilities is described above. Shipping (transports, light cruisers and aircraft carriers) Sunk - no ships would be sunk or destroyed by this attack. Immobilized - ships berthed or at anchor in the Inner Harbour would be immobilized. Slight damage - all other ships within Victoria Harbour (Inner and Outer) would receive slight damage to superstructure and external equipment. Effect of a Burst over Aiming point # I-N - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on the Nighttime Distribution of Population by a 20 Kiloton Bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming point would cause casualties among 30-45% of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). Damage to Vital Points is described below: �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 7 Shipbuilding and Repairing Yarrows Limited - Category A No damage other than superficial would be caused to shops or equipment, and no casualties would occur among shift on duty. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # I - Category A Very severe structural building damage would be caused by blast and there is a probability of fire. Little or no equipment could be salvaged. Approximately 15-55% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # 2 - Category A Moderate structural building damage would be caused by blast and the probability of fire is low. Approximately 10-15% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Government Graving Dock - Category A No damage would be caused to the Dry Dock by this type of attack. Naval Dockyard - Esquimalt No serious damage would be caused to any of the dockyard facilities by this attack. Viptoria Harbour Wharves and Piers No damage would be caused to wharves and piers in the Inner or Outer Harbours. Transit Sheds Outer Harbour - the Canadian National Railway shed on Pier A would receive moderate structural blast damage but the probability of further damage from fire is low. No damage other than superficial would be caused to other sheds in the Outer Harbour. Inner Harbour - moderate structural damage would be caused to the sheds on the Evans, Coleman and Johnson Wharf and to the shed of puget Sound Navagation Company. No blast damage other than superficial would be caused to other sheds in this area. Grain Elevators and Cold Storage Warehouse No serious damage would be caused to either of these facilities. Shipbuilding and Repairing Damage to the major Shipbuilding and Repairing facilities is described above. Shipping (transports, light cruisers and aircraft carriers) No damage would be caused to shipping by this attack. Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point #I-N - Chosen to Give Maximvim Effect on the Nighttime Distribution of Population by a 100 Kiloton Bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 40-70% of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). Damage to Vital Points is described below: �' Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 8 Shipbuilding and Repairing Yarrows Limited - Category A No structural blast damage would be caused and the probability of fire is low. Less than 5% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # I - Category A This plant would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 45-90% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # 2 - Category A Very severe structural dama-e would be caused by blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Little or no salvage of equipment could be expected. Appro..ximately 25-65% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Government Graving Dock - Category A No serious damage would be caused to the Dry Dock by this attack. Naval Dockyard - Esquimalt No serious damage would be caused to the dockyard facilities by this attack. Victoria Harbour Wharves and Piers No serious damage would be caused to wharves and piers in the Inner or Outer Harbours. Transit Sheds Outer Harbour - Destroyed - the shed on the Canadian National Railway Pier A would be destroyed. Serious Damage - would be caused to all other important sheds in the Outer Harbour. Inner Harbour - Destroyed - the sheds on the Evans, Coleman and Johnson Wharf; and the Puget Sound Navigation Company Jetty would be destroyed by this attack. Serious damage - would be caused to the shed on the Canadian Pacific Railway Wharf. Grain Elevators and Cold Storage Warehouse No serious damage would be caused to either of these facilities. Shipbuilding and Repairing Damage to the major shipbuilding and repairing facilities is described above. Shipping (transports, light cruisers and aircraft carriers) Sunk or Immobilized - no ships would be sunk or immobilized by this attack. Slight damage - would be caused to ships berthed or anchored within the Inner Harbour. �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 9 Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point # 2 - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Victoria Harbour by a 20 Kiloton Bomb A daytime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 10-^20% of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue. A nighttime attack would cause casualties among 10-/15% of the population (Tables I and II). Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Repairing Yarrows Limited - Category A Serious structural building damage would be caused by blast but the probability of further damage from fire is low. It is likely that some equipment could be salvaged. Approximately 10-15% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # I - Category A Very severe structural damage would be caused by blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Little or no salvage of equipment could be expected. Approximately 15-55% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # 2 - Category A This plant would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 100% of the shift on duty would be killed. Government Graving Dock - Category A No serious damage would be caused to any of the dockyard facilities by this attack. Naval Dockyard - Esquimalt Wharves and Jetties No serious damage would be caused to the Naval jetties by this attack. Administration Slight damage would be caused to the Naval Administration Building. No structural damage would be caused to other major administration buildings. Stores Slight damage would be caused to the main Bulk Stores Building and the Chart Depot, No structural damage would be caused to other vital stores buildings. Workshops No serious damage would be caused to workshops by this attack. RCN Barracks (HMOS "Naden") No serious building damage would be caused by this attack. 000523 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la l o i sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 10 Victoria Harbour Wharves and Piers Victiria Machinery Depot Piers I and 2 would be seriously damaged by blast and fire. Other major wharves and piers would not be seriously damaged. Transit Sheds Outer Harbour - Destroyed - all transit sheds in the Outer Harbour would be destroyed. Inner Harbour - Serious damage - sheds of the Evans, Coleman and Johnson Wharf would receive severe structural blast damage and would probably be destroyed by fire. Moderate damage - would be caused to the shed on the Canadian Pacific Railway Wharf. Grain Elevators and Cold Storage Warehouse These facilities would be destroyed by blast and fire. Shipbuilding and Repairing Damage to the major shipbuilding and repairing facilities is described above. Shipping (transports, light cruisers and aircraft carriers) Sunk - all ships berthed or at anchor in the Outer Harbour would be sunk or destroyed. Immobilized - all other ships berthed or anchored in the Outer Harbour or the western half of the Inner Harbour would be immobilized. Slight damage - all other ships within Victoria Harbour would receive slight damage to superstructure and external equipment. Effeot of a Burst over Aiming Point # 2 - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Victoria Harbour by a 100 Kiloton Bomb A daytime attack on this Aiming casualties among 15-30% of the population tions of warning and rescue. A nighttime casualties among 15-25% of the population Point would cause depending on condiattack would cause (Tables I and II). Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Repairing Yarrows Limited - Category A This building would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 25-70% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # I - Category A This plant would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 45-90% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # 2 - Category A This plant would be completely destroyed and 100% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Government Graving Dock - Category A No damage would be caused to the Dry Dock by this type of attack. 000524 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 11 Naval Dockyard - Esquimalt Wharves and Piers No serious damage would be caused to naval jetties by this attack. Administration Severe damage would be caused to the Naval Administration Building. Moderate damage would be caused to the Naval Distributing Authority. There is a probability of damage from fire in this area. Stores Severe damage would be caused to the Bulk Stores Building, the Chart Depot and Naval Stores Buildings. Moderate damage would be caused to the Heavy Gun Mounting Stores. There is a probability of further damage from fire to all buildings in this area. Workshops Severe blast damage would be caused to the Engine Supply Office, the Boiler and Plate Shops and the Torpedo Workshop. Slight damage would be caused to the Civilian Shipwright and Rigger shops. All shops in the area would probably receive further damaged from fire. RCN Barracks (HMCS "Naden") Slight structural blast damage would be caused to buildings in this area and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Victoria Harbour Wharves and Piers Victoria Machinery Depot Piers I and 2 in the Outer Harbour would be seriously damaged by this attack. The Canadian Pacific Railway Wharf in the Inner Harbour would also be seriously damaged. All other wharves and piers would not be damaged. Transit Sheds All the major sheds in the Outer and Inner Harbours would be destroyed by this attack. Grain Elevators and Cold Storage Warehouse These facilities would be destroyed by blast and fire. Shipbuilding and Repairing Damage to the major shipbuilding and repairing facilities is described above. Shipping (transports, light cruisers and aircraft carriers) Sunk - all ships berthed or at anchor in the Outer Harbour would be destroyed or sunk. Immobilized - all ships in the Inner Harbour would be immobilized. Slight damage - all other slips in this area would receive slight damage to superstructure and external equipment. 000525 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 12 - Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point # 3 - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on the Naval Dockyard Esquimalt by a 20 Kiloton Bomb A daytime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 20-35% of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue. A nighttime attack would cause casualties among 15-20% of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Repairing Yarrows Limited - Category A This plant would be completely destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 100% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # I - Category A Slight structural damage would be caused by blast but the probability of further damage from fire is low. Most equipment could be salvaged. Less than 5% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # 2 - Category A Moderate structural damage would be caused by blast but the probability of further damage from fire is low. Much equipment could probably be salvaged. Less than 5% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Government Graving Dock - Category A No damage would be caused to the Dry Dock by this type of attack. Naval Dockyard - Esquimalt Wharves and Piers All the Naval jetties would be destroyed by this attack. All Administration and Stores Buildings and Workshops would be destroyed by this attack. RCN.Barracks (HMOS "Naden") Buildings in this area would also be destroyed. Victoria Harbour No serious damage would be caused to the facilities in Victoria Harbour by this attack. Shipping (transports, light cruisers and aircraft carriers) No damage would be caused to shipping in Victoria Harbour by this attack. 000526 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'accesxt I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 13 - Effeot of a Burst over Aiming Point # 3 - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on the Naval Dockyard Esquimalt by a 100 Kiloton Bomb A daytime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 25-60% of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue. A nighttime attack would cause casualties among 25-45% of the population (Tables I and II). Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Repairing Yarrows Limited - Category A This plant would be completely destroyed and 100% of the shift on duty would be killed. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # I - Category A Very severe structural damage would be caused by blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Little salvage of equipment could be expected. Approximately 15-55% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Victoria Machinery Depot, Plant # 2 - Category A Very severe structural damage would be caused by blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Little salvage of equipment could be expected. Approximately 15-55% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Government Graving Dock - Category A Very severe structural damage would be caused by blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Little salvage of equipment could be expected. Approximately 15-55% of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Naval Dockyard - Esquimalt All facilities in this area would be destroyed by this attack. Victoria Harbour Wharves and Piers No serious damage would be caused to wharves and piers. Transit Sheds Destroyed - the shed on the Canadian National Railway Pier A would be destroyed by this attack. Moderate damage - the sheds on Canadian National Railway Pier B and the United Grain Growers Terminal would receive moderate damage from blast and fire. Slight damage - would be caused to the sheds of Evans, Coleman and Johnson and the Puget Sound Navigation Company. Grain Elevators and Cold Storage Warehouse No serious blast damage would be caused but there is a probability of damage from fire. Shipbuilding and Repairing Damage to the major shipbuilding and repairing facilities is described above.. Shipping (transports, light cruisers and aircraft carriers) No damage would be caused to shipping in Victoria Harbour by this attack. 000527 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 14 (d) Effects on Morale It is expected that the effect on morale in large centres of population in Canada, and at least the northern parts of the United States, would be much the same whichever city is attacked by an atomic bomb. The effect will probably be somewhat proportionate to the size of the casualties inflicted by individual bombs and by the number of cities attacked. IV Air Navigation Aspects of an Attack With the equipment at present available to the Russian Long Range Air Force, Victoria would be an easy target to locate for a well trained navigator not familiar with the area. It would hot be a feasable to plan an approach in this area without radar, however, as the area is frequently shrouded in fog and cloud. Accuracy in identifying specific Aiming Points is a more critical aspect. However an attack over much of the city would cause serious damage to Vital points, harbour facilities and population, though of a lesser magnitude than described by this report. / 000528 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'infortpgtion TABLE I - CASUALTY ESTIMATES -. CITY OF VICTORIA TOP SECRET DAYTIME ATTACK 20 K i l o t o n Bomb CANADIAN EYES ONLY 100 K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming Point # I - ' C h o s e n t o Give Maxiraum Effect on P o p u l a t i o n During a Daytime A t t a c k Killed ________ Seriously Injured Light l y Injured Killed Seriou s l y Injured Lightly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 28,100 5,200 3,200 No Warning - No Rescue 38,500 5,200 2,600 No Warning - With Rescue 22,300 7,800 4,200 No Warning - With Resoue 29,600 9,200 4,100 With Warning - V/ith Rescue 19,300 6,200 4,300 V/ith Warning - With Rescue 26,000 7,100 4,000 Aiming P o i n t # 2_ - Chosen to Give Maximum E f f e c t on Outer Commercial Harbour a n d I n s t a l l a t i o n s No Warning - No Rescue 4,500 1,400 1,100 No Warning - No Rescue 7,900 4,700 .4,100 No Warning - With Rescue 2,500 2,100 1,400 No Warning - With Rescue 4,900 5,900 4,700 With Warning - With Rescue 2,000 1,500 1,200 V/ith Warning - V/ith Rescue 3,800 3,700 2,800 Aiming P o i n t # 3 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on Esquimalt Harbour and Graving Dock No Warning - No Rescue 9,400 5,900 5,100 No Warning - No Rescue 27,100 7,100 4,200 No Warning - With Rescue 3,600 7,700 6,100 No Warning - With Rescue 13,900 12.,400 6,400 With Warning - With Rescue 2,200 4,900 4,200 With Warning - V/ith Rescue 9,600 7,500 4,200 000529 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la l o i sur I'acces a /'information TOP SECRET TABLE I - CASUALTY ESTIMATES - CITY OF VICTORIA NIGHTTIME ATTACK 20 Kiloton Bomb CANADIAN EYES ONLY 100 Kiloton Bomb Aiming Point •// I - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Population During a Nighttime Attack Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured No Warning - No Resoue 28,000 7,900 5,100 No Warning - No Rescue 50,600 8,900 4,900 No Warning - With Rescue 15,300 12,900 7,400 No Warning - V/ith Rescue 30,700 17,500 8,400 V/ith Warning - With Rescue 11,300 9,500 6,700 V/ith Warning - With Rescue 24,000 11,800 6,600 Aiming Point >/ 2 - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on Outer Comraercial Harbour and I n s t a l l a t i o n s No Warning - No Rescue 5,100 2,500 1,800 No Warning - No Rescue 13,500 6,100 4,300 No Warning - With Rescue 1,800 3,500 2,300 No Warning - V/ith Rescue 6,300 8,800 5,600 With Warning - With Rescue 1,100 2,400 1,800 With Warning - With Rescue 4,300 5,500 3,500 Aiming Point if 3 - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on Esquimalt Harbour and Graving Dock No Warning - No Rescue 9,600 5,300 3,800 No Warning - No Rescue 28,900 9,400 6,000 No Warning - With Rescue 4,600 7,300 4,800 No Warning - With Rescue 13,200 14,700 8,600 " 3,100 4,900 3,600 With Warning - With Rescue 9,300 9,200 5,500 With Warning - V/ith Rescue 000530 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TABIE I I - CASUALTIES AS PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION X TOP SECRET DAYTIME ATTACK / CANADIAN EYES ONLY 100 Kiloton Bomb 20 K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming P o i n t # I - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n During a Daytime A Attttaacckk Killed Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 50 10 5 No Warning - No Rescue 65 10 5 No; Warning - With Rescue 40 15 5 No Warning - V/ith Rescue 50 15 5 V/ith Warning - With Rescue 35 10 5 V/ith Warning - V/ith Rescue 45 10 5 Aiming Point # _2 - Chosen Lightly Injured Give Max Killed Seriou sly Injured Idgitly Injured Cfact on Cuter Commercial H{ hour and I n s t a l l a t i o n s No Warning - No Rescue 10 ti ti No Warning - No Rescue 15 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 5 5 ti No Warning - V/ith Rescue 10 10 10 With Warning - With Rescue ti ti> ti With Warning - With Rescue 5 5 5 Aiming Point # 3. - Chosen t o Give Maximvim Effect on Esquimalt Harbour and d Installations No Warning - No Rescue 15 10 10 No Warning - No Rescue 45 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 5 15 10 No Warning - With Rescue 25 20 10 With Warning - With Rescue 5 10 5 With Warning - V/ith Rescue E 15 5 x Based on 58,800 within 5 miles of an Aiming P o i n t . The population of the metropolitan area i s 104,300 of the c i t y proper i s 51,300 000531 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'infortTTation TABLE n - CASUALTIES AS PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION X TOP SECRET NIGHTTIME ATTACK CANADIAN EYES ONLY 100 Kiloton Bomb 20 Kiloton Bomb time Attack Aiming Point # I - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Population During a Daytime Lightly Injured Killed Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 55 10 5 10 No Warning - V/ith Rescue 35 20 10 5 V/ith Warning - With Rescue 25 15 5 Killed Seriously Injured Li^itly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 30 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 15 15 V/ith Warning - With Rescue 15 10 Aiming Point # 2 • Chosen t o st on Outer Commercial Harbc ir and I n s t a l l a t i o n s No Warning - No Rescue 5 ti ti No Warning - No Rescue 15 5 5 No Warning - With Rescue /p 5 ti No Warning - V/ith Rescue 5 10 5 With Warning - V/ith Rescue /ftp IP /5 With Warning - V/ith Rescue 5 5 5 Aiming Point # 3 • Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on Esquimalt Harbour and Graving raving Dock No Warning - No Rescue 10 5 5 No Warning - No Rescue 30 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 5 10 5 No Warning - V/ith Rescue 15 15 10 V/ith Warning - With Rescue 5 5 5 With Warning - With Rescue 10 10 5- x Based on 89,800 within 5 miles of an Aiming P o i n t . The population of the metropolitan area i s 104,300 of the c i t y proper i s 51,300 000532 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET TABLE I I I - SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON VITAL POINTS CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point # I-D - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Population During a Daytime Attack by a 20 Kiloton Bomb Vital Points Vital Point Cate<?ory Structural Damage by B l a s t (%) Probability of Fire Damage t o C o n t e n t s With F i r e No F i r e 0 Yarrows Limited A 0 None - Victoria Machinery Depot Plant # I A 100 High 100 75 - 100 Victoria Machinery Depot Plant # 2 A Med 100 75% App Government Graving Dock A - m» 75 - 100 0 None 000533 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE I I I - SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON VITAL POINTS TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point #I-D - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n D u r i n g a Daytime A t t a c k by a 100 K i l o t o n Bonfo Vital Points Vital Point Category Structural Damage by Blast (%) . Probability of Fire Damage to Contents With Fire No Fire Yarrows Limited A 75% App Med 75 - 100 50% App V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # I A 100 High 100 100 V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # 2 A 100 High 100 100 Government Graving Dock A 0 None _ - 000534 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a /'information TABLE I I I - SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON VITAL POINTS TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point # I-N - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n During a Nighttime A t t a c k by a 20 K i l o t o n Bomb V i t a l Points V i t a l Point Categ ;ory Yarrows Limited A V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # I A V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot Plant # 2 Government Graving Dock Structural Damage by Blast $ ) Probability of Fire Damage t o C o n t e n t s With F i r e No F i r e None - 0 75 - 100 Med 100 75% App A 50% App Low 75 - 100 25-50 A 0 None 0 M a. 000535 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE I I I - SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON VITAL POINTS TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming P o i n t # I-N - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on P o p u l a t i o n During a Nighttime A t t a c k by a 100 K i l o t o n Bomb V i t a l Points V i t a l Point Category Structural Damage by B l a s t (%) Probability of Fire Damage t o Contents With F i r e No F i r e Yarrows Limited A 0 Ix>w 25-50 V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # I A 100 High 100 75 - 100 V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # 2 A 75 - 100 Med 100 75 - 100 Government Graving Dock A 0 None wm 0 _ 000536 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE TTT - SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON VITAL POINTS 4 TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point # 2 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on V i c t o r i a Harbour by a 20 K i l o t o n Bomb V i t a l Points Vital Point Categ o r y Structural Damage by B l a s t (fo) Probability of Fire Damage t o Cci n t e n t s With F i r e No F i r e Yarrows Limited A 50-75 Low 75 - 100 50% App V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # I A 75 - 100 Med 100 75% App V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # 2 A 100 High 100 Government Graving Dock A 0 None mm 100 - 000537 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE IIT - SUMMARY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POINTS TOP SECRET x CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point # 2 - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on V i c t o r i a Harbour by a 100 K i l o t o n Bomb Vital Points V i t a l Point Category Structural Damage by B l a s t (%) Probability of Fire Damage to Contents With Fire No Fire Yarrows Limited A 100 Med 100 75 - 100 V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # I A 100 High 100 100 V i c t o r i a Machinery Depot P l a n t # 2 A 100 High 100 100 Government Graving Dock A 0 None 000538 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET TABLE I I I - SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON VITAL POINTS CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point # 5 - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Naval Dockyard Esquimalt by a 20 Kiloton Bomb Vital Points Vital Point Categ ory Structural Damage by B l a s t (%) Probability of Fire Damage t o Contents With F i r e No F i r e 100 Yarrows Limited A 100 High 100 Victoria Machinery Depot Plant # I A £25% Low 50 - 75 0-25 Victoria Machinery Depot Plant # 2 A 25-50 Low 50 - 75 25% App Government Graving Dock A 0 None <M <w» 000539 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE III - SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON VITAL POINTS TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point # 3 - Chosen to Give Maximvim Effect on Naval Dockyard Esquimalt by a 100 Kiloton Bomb Vital Points Vital Point Categ ory Structural Damage by Blast $ ) Probability of Fire Danage to Contents With Fire No Fire High 100 100 75 - 100 Med 100 75% App A 75 - 100 Med 100 75 - 100 A 0 Yarrows Limited A Victoria Machinery Depot Plant # I A Victoria Machinery Depot Plant # 2 Government Graving Dock 100 None - - 000540 �V 1 Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la loi sur I'acces a I'information , TOP SLCRLT f • i i CANADIAN MM» ONLY JJEEHDIX "A" - STUDY OF CITY OF VICTORIA For the City of Victoria the list of Vital Points as determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points is as follows: Category "A" Naval Dockyard, Esquimalt Yarrows Limited Victoria Machinery Depot Company Limited Government Graving Dock, Esquimalt The categories determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points are designed for sabotage studies. They have been adapted for the present study by raising those points which are important to the joint Canadian U.S. war effort from Category "A" to a superior Category "AA", and by restating the significance of the categories. The categories used are as follows: Category "AA" Individual plants or buildings of sufficient importance to the North American war effort to be considered possible atomic bomb targets, irrespective of any effects of an A-bomb attack on the target on other vital points. Additional effects will, however, play a part in determining the relative importance of Category "AA" targets and they have, therefore, been studied and reported. Category "A" Individual plants or buildings not of sufficient importance to the North American war effort to be considered A-bomb targets by themselves, but which may become A-bomb targets if the other effects of the explosion of a bomb over the target would produce a sufficient cumulative effect on population and other vital points. Category "B" Important points to be considered in conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" and Category "A" targets. Category "C" Minor points to be considered in conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" and Category "A" targets. 000541 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDIM02663 Title A name given to the resource CDIM02663 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived "Canadian Vulnerability Study Panel - Reports and studies of," RG25-A-3-b, Vol. 4563, File 50041-A-40, Part 2, Library and Archives Canada (LAC). Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Department of External Affairs Subject The topic of the resource Intelligence Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/staging/CanadaDeclassifieditems-November2020/CDIM02663.pdf Language A language of the resource en