https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/176f3d3458298a2f83c39812d8767d5e.pdf 499a6edf17bf1746572e4dbb0c02db8e PDF Text Text r Document disclosed under the Access to Document divulgue en vertu de la Loisur i'a ^'A* ^ B*^ < JTBT3 2 0 0 - 2 1 1 3 - 2 b ^ ^ i ris ^ ATOMIC VTOEPABILITY STUDY OF CANADA TOP SgORgT CANADIAN iilDSS ONLY fh TEGS CITY OF KSGINA I Object of the Study This is one of a series of reports on major Canadian cities and targets which provide the basic information on enemy capabilities to cause damage to persons and to vital points by atomic attack. This study is not concerned with the probability that such an enemy attack will be made. II Definitions of Terms Used ~^-~S- Ground Zero - The point on the ground directly under the point of burst in the air Aiming Point - The point on the ground directly under the point where the bomb is aimed to be burst in the air No Rescue - No organized and trained rescue is carried out, which means effectively that only people who are not trapped or who can escape by their own efforts survive. Seriously Injured - Hospitalized persons who would not report to work for a considerable period of time Lightly Injured - First Aid cases who would be able to contribute to their work a few days after the attack Nighttime - The time during vihich people are in their normal places of residence Dpytime - The time during which people are at their normal places of work Sources of Basic Inf ormation (a) PopulationInformation on the nighttime distribution of population is based on a redistribution of the 1951 census returns in greater detail to show the population of individual city blocks. This is considered for the purpose of this study a sufficiently good approximation to the nighttime distribution of population. It has not been possible at this time to estimate the daytime distribution of population. 000106 \ �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act • Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SL,OB£T CANADIANJ-YLS ONLY - 2 (b) Vital Points Information on other Vital Points was taken from the 195j List of Vital Points, vhich is the work of the Interdepartmental Co.amittee on Vit..l Points. The list for the Re?,i:ia area is -/iiven in Apoendix ;,A". (c) Scientific Data. Basic data on the effects of atomic bomb explosions on people and structures was prepared by the Defence Research Board (Scientific Adviser to the Civil Defence Co-ordinator). .2££t2£Sj^ns^^ The effects of an attack on a city vary widely with the location of the bomb burst. As it is not considered practicable to study all possible points of burst, a series of .Alain;--: Points have been selected which are calculated to ;:ive the maximum effect on population and on different £roupin.~s of vital points. The effects of an attack vary widely with the energy released by the bomb. As it is not .possible to estimate the energy level of tho bomb most likely to be used, separate estimates were made for a bomb vdth the lowest probable enert^y and the highest probable ener/jy level. The effects on people also vary widely with circumstances of warning and rescue. A series of estimates were therefore made for different -conditions of warning and rescue. Thb estimates made for conditions VilTE RcioCUE axe for ideal rescue conditions with organized and trained rescue teams, in temperate climates and when the atomic attack is unsupported by other weapons. In spite of rescue efforts casualties would tend towrrds those {-iven .for NO RilSCUS under severe winter conditions, or if Chemical uerfare attack were combined vdth atomic attack or if the spread of fire were extensive. Conditions of visibility would also alter the effect of an attack. Poor visibility would reduce the extent of fire and the nximber of radiation casualties and would have some effect on the chances of pinpointing; the target from the air. All calculations are based on an average clear day over a city with a visibility of ebout six miles. For the city of Retina an Aiming Point was chosen to give the maximum effect on the nighttime distribution of population. A second Aiminy, Point was chosen to yive the maximuiii effect on Vital Points considered collectively. - �Document disclosed under the Access to Informatio Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'inf TOPS^ORST GgliDIffl ^mi V ^s^lts__oj^^h^Sjti^,y ONLY o^jthe^JLt^o^Re^J^ifl An attack on. the population of Retina could cause casualties araong 55-7-5.0 of the popuL. tion if a 20 kiloton Bomb were used, depending on conditions of wcrnins. and rescue; 75-95'/£ if a 100 Kiloton Bomb were used but w mid cause little or no damage to Vital Points. An attack on Vital Points would result in casualties among approximately 5% of the population if r. 20 Xiloton Bomb were used; 15-35/5 if a 100 Kiloton Bomb were used, and would destroy those Vital Points. (a) Effects on Population The effect of an attack on the nighttime population • is .-^iven in Tables I and II for ..frch Aiminy Point and for different conditions of warniny, and re.scue. (b) Effects on Vital Points A summary of the effect on Vital Points is ^iven in Table III for each Aiming Point. The e:.tent of dam.- ye to Vital Points and the effect on their various functions is also described below for both of the Aiminr; Points. The relative importance of each Vital Point to the Canadian - U*S. war effort is indicated by the category (AA., A, B or C ) , which is given for each Vital Point in Appendix- "A". A definition of each of the categories is also yiven in Appendix "A;:. 000108 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information > TOP SECRET •/ J CAMADI/J.T ^riftftfto ONLY - 4 - (c) Detalied Discussion of an Attacjs on Each of the Ajminy Points Effect of a_ Burst over Aiminy Point # I-N - Chosen to yive maximum effect on population by a 20 Kiloton Bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties amony 55~75>£ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population information is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Petroleum Facilities Imperial Oil Refinery - Category A There would be no damage to storage or refining facilities Sask. Federated Cooperatives Ltd - Category A Storage facilities would not be damayed "oj this attack Interprovinciel Pump Line Pump Station - Category A There would be no damaye to buildinys or equipment and no casualties amon.'? shift on duty Effect of a Burst over Aiminy Point $ JLr^L..1_5-^£§S5L.JL9_*liZ®..JISSiiB.1^ effect on population by a 100 Kiloton Bomb A niyhttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 75-95$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population information is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Petroleum Facilities Imperial Oil Refinery - Category A There would be no damaye to storaf7;e or refining facilities Sask..Federated CooperativesLtd - Cateyory A Storage facilities would not be damayed by this attack Interprovincial Pump Line Pump Station - Category A Little serious damaye to buildings and equipment would be caused by blast but there is a probability of further damage from fire.- Less than 5$ of shift on duty would be seriously injured 000109 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information ' TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY ? - 5- Effect of a Burst over Aiming j b i n t j ^ 2; - Chosen to yive maximum effect on Vital Points ..by a 20 Kiloton Bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among /pfo of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and I I ) . A s daytkme population information is not at present available, it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vitel Points is described below: Pejto_ol_em.x JFa c il i t i es Imperial Oil Refinery - Category A Refilling facilities and storage facilities would be destroyed by this attack Sask. Federated Cooperatives Ltd - Category A Storage facilities would be destroyed by this attack. •Interprovincial Pump Line Pump Station - Category A Buildinys and equipment would be completely destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 100$ of shift on duty would be killed Effect of a Burst over Aiminy Point # 2- Chosen to yive maximum tf^j-jg-t _on Vital Points by a 100 Kiloton Bomb A niyhttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties amony 15-35$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and I I ) . A s daytime population information is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damaye to Vital Points is described below: Pet role um Fac i1ities Imperial Oil Refinery - Category A Refining facilities and storage facilities would be destroyed by this attack Sask. Federated Cooperatives Ltd - Category A Storage facilities would be destroyed by this attack Interprovincial Pump Line Pump Station - Category A Buildinys and equipment would be completely destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 100$ of shift on duty would be killed 000110 1 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information,Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOPJ&CRrJT C^KMDIEN ,.,5Y-& J3NLY - 5 (°-) Effects on Morale It is expected that the effect on morale in lcrye centres of population in Canada, and at least the northern parts of the United States, would be much the same whichever city is attacked by an atomic bomb. The effect will probably be somewhat proportionate to the size of the casualties inflicted by individual bombs and by the number of cities attacked. V1 Air Navigation Agjgects J3f__an Attack With the equipment at present available to the Russian Long Range Air Force, Regina would not be an easy target to locate when approached from the Pacific Ocean, the north or northeast, on a high level attack for a well trained navigator not familiar with the Area. Visual idontification of Regina would not be difficult providi1"... visibility was about 35 miles. The approaches on a low level attack would be very difficult, though visual identification of the target would be easy. Accuracy in identifying specific Aiming Points is a critical aspect. The Vital Points in Regina are concentrated in one area which is seperated from the centre of population and an atomic explosion over areas other than those chosen as Aiming Points would result in casualties or damage of a much lesser magnitude than described by this report. 000111 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE I - CASUALTY ESTIMATES - CITY OF REGINA TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES OMLY NIGHTTIME ATTACK 100 K i l o t o n Bomb 20 K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming P o i n t # I - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n Killed Seriously Injured LigHtly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 55,200 6,000 2,400 7,200 No Warning - With Rescue 39,800 14,600 5,200 7,500 With Warning - V/ith Rescue 32,700 10, 900 6,400 Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 40,300 7,400 4,300 No Warning - With Rescue 24,100 14,000 With Warning - With Rescue 18,700 11,000 Aiming Point # 2 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s No Warning - No Rescue 600 1,700 1,500 No Warning - No Rescue 9,100 7,800 6,900 No Warning - With Rescue 100 1,700 1,600 No Warning - With Rescue 2,100 9,200 7,100 0 1,100 1,000 With Warning - With Rescue 1,000 5,500 4,000 With Warning - With Rescue 000112 �TABLE I I - CASUALTIES AS PERCEMAGE OF POPULATION Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information x TOP SECRET NIGHTTIME ATTACK CANADIAN MES ONLY 100 K i l o t o n Bomb 20 K j l o t o n Borah Aiming Poin t # I - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 60 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 35 20 With Warning - With Rescue 30 15 Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 80 10 5 10 No Warning - With Rescue 60 20 10 10 With Warning - With Rescue 50 15 10 No Warning - No Rescue 15 10 10 5 15 10 JftftL 10 5 Aiming Point # 2 - Ch No Warning - No Rescue No Warning -. With Rescue With Warning - With Rescue x U u IP IP' & £ No Warning - With Rescue /5 /I With Warning - With Rescue Based on 67,700 w i t h i n 5 m i l e s of Aiming P o i n t , The p o p u l a t i o n of Regina i s 71,300 000113 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE I I I - SUMMARY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POINTS TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming P o i n t # I - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n Vital Points V i t a l P o i nt Category Structural Damage by B l a s t {%) Probability of Fire Damage t o C o n t e n t s With F i r e No F i r e 20 K i l o t o n Bomb I m p e r i a l Refinery 1) Storage F a c i l i t i e s 0 2) R e f i n i n g F a c i l i t i e s S a s k . Federated C o o p e r a t i v e s Limited I n t e r p r o v i n c i a l Pump Line Pump S t a t i o n 0 A B 0 0 None None None None 100 K i l o t o n Bomb Imperial Refinery 1) Storage Facilities 0 0 None None A 0 None B 0-25 Med 2) Refining Facilities S a s k . Federated C o o p e r a t i v es Limited I n t e r p r o v i n c i a l Pump Line Pump S t a t i o n 50$ App 0-25 * 000114 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABIE III - SUMMARY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POINTS TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point # 2 - Chosen to Give Maximum Effeot on Vital Points V i t a l Points V i t a l Point Category Structural Damage by Blast {%) Probability of Fire 20 Kiloton Bomb Imperial Refinery 1) Storage F a c i l i t i e s 100 100 High High A 100 High B 100 High Damage to Contents r ith Fire No Fire 2) Refining F a c i l i t i e s Sask. Federated Cooperatives Limited 100 100 100 100 Interprovincial Pump Line Pump Station 100 Kjloton Bomb Imperial Refinery 1) Storage Facilities A 100 100 High High A 100 High B 100 High 2) Refining Facilities Sask. Federated Cooperatives Limited I n t e r p r o v i n c i a l Pump Line Pump S t a t i o n XL, W 000115 �J Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a finformatii w TOP a x i E T _^. .. • CANADIAN EYES ONLY APEErBIX "A" - STUDY OF CITY 0? REGIiiA For t h e C i t y of R e t i n a t h e l i s t of V i t a l P o i n t s a s determined by t h e I n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l Committee on V i t a l P o i n t s i s as f o l l o w s : Category "A" Imperial Oil Refinery Sask. Federated Cooperatives, Ltd. Interprovincial Punp Line Pump Station The categories determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points are designed for sabotage studies. They have been adapted for the present study by raising those points which are important to the joint Canadian U*S. war effort from Category "A" to a superior Category "AA", and by restating the significance of the categories. The categories used are as follows: Individual plants or buildings of sufficient importance to the North American war effort to be considered possible atoraic bomb targets, irrespective of any effects of an A-bomb attack on the target on other Vital Points. Additional effects will, however, play a part in determining the relative importance of Category "AA" targets and they have, therefore, been studied and reported. Category "A" Individual plants or buildings not of sufficient importance to the North American war effort to be considered A-bomb targets by themselves, but which may become A-bomb targets if the other effects of the explosion of a bomb over the target would produce a sufficient cumulative effect on population.and other Vital Points, Category "B" Important points to be considered in conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" targets. Category "C" IJinor points to be considered in conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" and Category "A" t a r g e t s . 000116 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDIM02649 Title A name given to the resource CDIM02649 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived "Canadian Vulnerability Study Panel - Reports and studies of," RG25-A-3-b, Vol. 4563, File 50041-A-40, Part 1, Library and Archives Canada (LAC). Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Department of External Affairs Subject The topic of the resource Intelligence Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/staging/CanadaDeclassifieditems-November2020/CDIM02649.pdf Language A language of the resource en