https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/30f86141d2534e862f59b11dd685a37d.pdf 5e8695e712936ffe67dc97eb7800c865 PDF Text Text LI < —c?- c - i VXz £<s >-3Cm RpA/xtA < •. 'XZ > < \a * 'XZ < X*X eZX> .ZX. <v x-U <’ ’x a - : >■ xz> 4v >xx. ,v U Xz: Xz > ‘a /? bv* Li 1 LJ ^v> jvs i y\. C- i ; f' / ,f xx/ cjjx v /: .»x /*. .z\ a*a :zx. T’ £'vx f Ptv-b-L Kz H L> \/? 5 t H k’ :xz xx‘’ \/ x/9 y f' f : :xz> ’a z A’Q *a Z :xz> i ;•/* f xv< iXx-* * J H f fl fr'}?'*?! U $. f '/ y y z*. .: a *x : I * X Seoret/Sscret Document ID/Id du docu: iftent: £2001-106068 n: Number of Attachments/Nombre de pieces jointes: 2 504194 Message ID/Id de message: M2 0010 92515Z N Date Sent/Date envoyee: 20010925 ’*.1 4 M' Message Type/Type de message: Non- ormal/Non- e1 II Importance/Importance : Low/Fa ible Ori ginator/Auteur: Inte*- nal Mess acre . : Service<:./o=DFATTMAECI/ou-EXTOT’T .C4/cn~R orients /cn=HQ-QG/cn‘j=HQOrganiza Lon al cn=mes sender> Subject/Sujet: FW: GMR0724 Canada of war on rrorism Draft paper on Iwli cations for MENA and To/A: -EXTOTT -ISIW -C4<EX: /O=DFA1TMAECI/OU=EXTOTT.C4/CN=RE I?IENTS/CN= HQQG / CN=HQORG AN IZ. AT EONAL/CN=-EXTOTT — 1S1W> H File Numbers/Numeros de dossier: none/Aucun IJ] 000137 /bxzi. / �/'X/x v z\yx < *. "XZ > < Sa * *XZ AH va Z 1 > < j. x*x zs> .zs. ?ZX. .*S Li kJ p 13 ■xz > *a JC k. ........ ,, 1 LJ......... s vu ■a / : :xz‘ x/z : :xz> *a z "x/r ; the is i ' .*s /*. .x\ a *a .zs. < yJ : < -xz* y < < < ts y y ikxJ I J f: xW:: : : I Zv. a *X O ?■ f/S U $. f > ? X THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM AND TE E MIDDLE EAST The war against terrorism is likely to contain two principal elements. The first involves the US response to the attack itself, focussing on those who did it and those who supported them. The second element involves the promised wider war on terrorism in general. It is likely that the US will be given the widest latitude in responding directly to the attacks. |||||||||||||| While it is not yet clear how either element will play out, there is little doubt that all of the countries in the Middle ~bast will be b~ affected, either as state sponsors •: potential allies in the effort to root out terrorists. Given the existence of Islamist groups in all of the countries in the region, Moreover, old disputes about the definition of a terrorist are likely to cause problems even for those states who are willing to cooperate in the war on terrorism. While few countries in the region support the kind of nihilist, anti-Western, Islamic isolationism espoused by bin Laden (some of the “streets” do however), The implications for the countries in the region - in both the US response and wider war efforts- and Canada’s relations with them are likely to be different for each, depending on their level of involvement in either the attack or with terrorism in general. The days of business as usual are over. THE “SPONSORS” IRAN The implications for Iran of any US response to the attack and the new wider war on terrorism are potentially far-reaching. Apart from the humanitarian emergency on its border as a result of an expected massive influx of new Afghan refugees adding to the 2 million currently cared for by Iran, Iran has been consistently identified by the USA as a state sponsor of terrorism (being cited as the “most active” state sponsor in 2000). Tehran can expect that the spotlight will increasingly shine on the support they provide to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000138 ?\ ***// £ �r < !/’/*. -/\ 'XZ > < Xa * 'XZ /*• Se AH va X 1 > < j. x*x n> .zx. ?•A?: i: F" ’ *xz a ■XX > ? la / > ’a 5C . XA* <a . . . r.,.AZ> v > kz > \X < ? XX / C- i ■■ X Nz: V x/9 f Z*. -ZX. X*- .*x /*. .x\ "Z" XVX /V. & kzH U KT* f; -a : :XZ> ’a X :x z > ■ j, a z*. *a ;zx. a *x /i f cU.zXzP J /“K/i. / O ?■ G $. f n ? X The absence of any direct Iranian involvement could open the door to increased Iranian-US cooperation in moving against Afghanistan given the commonality of interests in replacing the Taliban and there have been signs of some openness on the US.' The UK Foreign Secretary has already visited Tehran, reportedly, to discuss developments with the Iranian leadership. Nonetheless, Iran’s record on terrorism and bilateral tensions (including Tehran’s opposition to the Middle East Peace Process which is, in part, manifested by support for Hamas and Hezbollah) will likely limit any joint efforts. US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told the North Atlantic Council, the “you can’t cherry7 pick terrorism” and i Iranian opposition to cooperation will also be hard to overcome. The conservative/clerical establishment still abhor the “Great Satan” and even the reformers will be reluctant to associate themselves with an undertaking that may take on the guise of an anti-Islamic crusade. The wider war on terrorism is aiso problematic. Iran rejects the charge that it is a sponsor of terrorism, viewing the US designation as politically motivated. They see themselves as victims of Iraq-based Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) terrorism (which is true) and see no connection between their support for Palestinian resistance groups and terrorism. s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000139 �r z’zv- zx < *. *XZ > «zs. *** zv- zx < Sa * *XZ AH va Z 1 > < j xvx .xx. A x*X y-i L = 1 <7 p I lxJ ■xz j 73 > -a /? .xx. f Un/.. yS > =x/ i X/ i 1 & kxH U Kx? > s*' > /*. .z\ Xz‘ s/£ : *XZ> *a Z Xx * *a Z *SZ> f x-n yyx ts y y *a :zs. i J i? f /■sj c-iP Ia a z ’a Z : a < yJ : < *xz* y < < < SxX $. f > z*. & a *x ■ ■ i 1 X An Iraqi connection to the events on September 11 remains a possibility. Iraq has been consistently cited by the US as a state sponsor of terrorism (largely directed at its own dissidents, however) Almost from the outset of the crisis, an Iraqi link as been the focus of considerable press speculation, led largely by former CIA Director James Woolsey who has noted a previous, largely under-reported, Iraqi link to the 1993 World Trade Centre bombing. Effective targeting of Iraq in the wider war on terrorism could prove difficult. Iraq is already under tough international sanctions and, despite recent limited diplomatic victories, is still largely isolated. Some diplomatic roll back would be possible, but that would only serve to return Iraq to a position they have been in for much of the past 10 years. We would expect a reaffirmed commitment to sanctions enforcement (like MIF patrols in the Gulf in which Canada participates) in an effort to dry up funds and materials destined, perhaps, for terrorists. More stringent efforts to track terrorist funding internationally could also have an impact by capturing some of Iraq’s smuggling revenues in the net. Canada’s relations with Iraq are limited and would be largely unaffected by any kind of targeting of Iraq. We have no resident Embassy and trade is minimal. While business people s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000140 /s f �D zz\yx zv>zx < 1 kA^X/UTx^ AJvf X/i < *. *SZ > < Sa * *XZ AH va Z 1 > < j. zs> .zs. ?zx. .*s If ■xz J’* JiXX„Xt ’ p i LJ v 1i sz < i “! ,f xx r c-1 ■ x Z > -a S* Ia a Z-a Z 1 :xz’ x/9 f s,v‘ X\ y J" Jv < zv. U t IH v I AA 1: :xz> *a 9 Xx ' S.Z "'a / /*. .Z\ a *a ;ZS. /'"I <xf X9 O X? /AZ 1’^ j > r ::xz> < f,'zi'7'''!; O ?■ ■*. Z .: a *x -A a *a $z * J f: x a A’ : : it./: I / Xxh f /*' < XZ <■ / z> y< *xz* x < < < Sa x $. f > a Z 1 x are increasingly interested, the numbers remain small. Some Canadians, sympathetic to Iraq. SYRIA A Syrian connection to the attacks is unlikely, although, again, links between groups supported by Syria and those involved are possible. Syrian support for terrorist groups is tied to the Arab-Israeli dispute (with the return of the Golan the key objective) and involves mostly Palestinian rejectionist groups opposed to the peace process. Syria’s support for terrorist groups extends to Lebanon. Syria as been openly sympathetic to the US in the wake of the attacks and have indicated a willingness to cooperate, but Damascus rejects all charges of state sponsorship of terrorism, viewing the Palestinian groups as legitimate resistance movements. State terrorism, they note, is the purview of Israel. IBlllllllllllllllllllllM If Syria is targeted for isolation in the war on terrorism the implications for Canada, directly, are limited. Our presence in Syria and our commercial interests are small, LIB YA Since the UN suspended its sanctions against Libya, after Tripoli handed over the two individuals suspected in the Lockerbie terrorist bombing of flight Pan-Am 103, the West has developed its ties with Libya and Qadhafi has concentrated its energy on Africa, with some success. He has continued to attract attention by his usual un-traditional way of doing business. Libya’s efforts to distance itself from its past support for terrorism has been acknowledged and has been highlighted by President Mubarak. s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000141 A �***;ZS' rr’ i < 'XZ > < Xa * 'XZ < : x*x X> .ZX. <v l-U su ph wa Z 1 > ?ZX. .*X •xz > rk- z> *xz: 'xz J > X*A > j Za * > . : .1 r.,.AZ> nJ v > j xz j ? : ,f xx/ c m -?A. ■a / : :xz‘ x/y : Z*. . Xa ' .ZX. X' < >< *x z * < > > *Z’ X' xx /*. >><£■* X. > < X. Xv a Zv. .*X ><v. ^/x, ...x : • > • f.v.x x :xz> .*x /*. .z\ a *a ;zx. lAA * J H A:; : : I O ?■ U $. f z*. a *x 1 X The Libyan leader appears to be positioning Libya to join an .Arab-Muslim position to combat terrorism through the convening of an international conference. Although Canada has had diplomatic relations with Libya since 1968 we have only just recently opened an embassy in Tripoli to sendee a growing political engagement and significant commercial interests. “UNWITTING SAFE HARBOURS’’ YEMEN Yemeni nationals have been linked to the attacks on September 11 and bin Laden’s Al-Qaida s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000142 �(a a - iz /'\/X < < /’'x/V < j. x*x n> .zx. ?zx. .*x ’ p 1 CJ v > X/i 1 "XZ > < Xa ‘ "XZ AH v aZ 1 > 'XZ > -a./! S* Ia a Xa /* XZ x/9 f < 1 :: Z*. .ZX.f U t IH xf* /'"I :xz> -a z *a / :x z > ■ .*x /*. .z\ a *a V tlT\>-,AZ j, p,j,x '/ y y :zx. z*. a *x ikx-* * J f: x*v:;S ? ? : O ?■ Sa x $. f ? x group has long been active in Yemen. Yemeni authorities will be expected to redouble their efforts to root out the terrorist networks present and active in the country7. Given the tribal nature of the country7 and the limited reach of the central Government outside the major cities, that will be a very7 tali order for President Saleh. President Saleh has actively cultivated improved ties with the US (West) for many years and the Government has pledged its support for the war on terrorism. Yemen is plagued by domestic forces that continue to threaten the stability of the country. V'Tiile efforts have been made by the government to deal with these internal security issues, last vear's USS Cole attacks clearly indicates that much more is needed. J J J Canada’s relations with Yemen continue to grow at a modest rate. During his official visit to Canada last year. President Saleh expressed an interest in working with Canada on issues such as terrorism, security, and arms smuggling. ’; THE “MODERATES” EGYPT . Egypt has fought its own brutal war against political Islam and terrorism for decades and has been championing coordinated international action and, recently a UN Conference on terrorism in 2002 . Irrespective of how much legitimacy is ultimately attached to the exercise, internal tensions are likely in Egypt Overall, instability m the region and Egypt in particular win have an overall economic impact. s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000143 f �r yzv- -/\ .zs. a ** /*• Se < j. zs> .zs. <v ?•A?: ?: *xz < ’XZ > < Sa * *XZ PH va Z 1 > p •xz >z a *? ........ ,. „ /x y\ c. ,/x.f f U > =x/ > \P H LH U 13 / xs/ > •a 5C <a . ■a / : :xz‘ s/z f0 : :.......... xz> a Z Nx * >*/ /*. .z\ :x z > < a *a .zs. z J : < -xz* z < < < f xv< yy X ts y y iAx-* * J U w!- ■ ■ i O ?’ z*. jy a *x CiLXzP J /“K/i. / Pt U $. f UP ? X JORDAN Jordan unlikely to be implicated in the attack and will be viewed as an important ally in the wider war on terrorism. Jordan has been used by terrorist groups in the past and Amman has good intelligence on various groups which, according to recent statements to the press by Kins Abdullah, they have shared with the west to good effect. Again, progress on the peace process will make it easier for Jordan to join the coalition and bring other Arab/Islamic countries along. Jordan has been a valuable interlocutor for Canada on MEPP issues and on the Human Security front and there are opportunities to move these agendas along in the current context. SAUDI ARABIA While Saudi nationals are among the suspects in the attack and individual The Al-Saud regime itself is a principal target of bin Laden and is has long been concerned about the impact radical Islam could have on the Kingdom's internal stability7. Saudi Arabia will be expected to play and in the wider war on terrorism. • • • • f in both the US response to the attacks s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000144 �r < At the end of the dav. bin Laden network. y/V- -/X ’XZ > < /*• Ne Xa * ’XZ PH va Z 1 > < j. x*x yx> .zx. ?zx. .*x ' p 1 LJ a ’XZ “! > ‘a 5* ,f XX / $AA<*a / * /*. .ZX.f .*x /*. .x\ > =x/ > XX < i & U t IH a *a z*. .zx. ilr* * J f: x av ? a *x : : I ■; i' :xz" x/P d :: :xz> -a x *a / :x z > ■ j, Sax $. f **Z ? x to root out the KUWAIT Kuwaiti leaders and government officials have publicly expressed their condolences, condemned the terrorist attacks and offered Kuwaiti support in creating an international coalition to combat terrorism. While in the past In general, public support for the US continues. There has been little tolerance by Kuwaiti authorities for displays of anti-American sentiment. Like in other countries in the region, there is a great deal of trepidation about the American reaction and what the fallout will be, creating rising tensions. Canada’s relations with Kuwait are good but have been low profile for several years. Canada was the fourth largest non- Arab contributor to the coalition that liberated Kuwait, however for our support. Canada’s relations with Kuwait are we have likely to be unaffected by cooperation with the US. < UAE. BAHRAIN. QATAR. OMAN Leaders in the United Arab Emirates. Bahrain, Oman and Qatar have all condemned the attacks, expressed their condolences, and have affirmed their support for the US and international efforts to combat terrorism. All of the Gulf states have their own concerns about ■R—l I ||h|«—III ■■■ I 1 ' ■■I* ~ s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000145 z: f �r < y/v- -Z\ 'XZ > -zx. a *a /v. -zx: < Xa * 'XZ PH va Z 1 > < j. x*x yx> .zx. <v A c’X ?•A?: i: *xz p 'XZ ’f'1 f' > ? 13 / zx/ > eA5C <a . z*. U v > c- > x/ < ? . ■a / : Xa ' ..A: : :xz‘ x/y : - < -zx. x' 'v x,*x 1 /*. >< > > iiT "XZ" < X. > zv. .*x zv. • > • £v.x :xz> < X. :: .*x /*. .z\ a *a .zx. ?■/”! f yy’A ts y y ilr* * J I: xA:: : : I z*. a *x O ?■ ?ZX Lt G $. f > 1 X the impact radical Islam could have on their internal stability. Trade dominates Canada’s relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar, however our commercial interests remain small. As is the case with other countries in the region, should the war on terrorism turn into a war on Arabs and Muslims, backlash from these countries against Canada and Canadian interests would be economic. ALGERIA Algeria has already expressed strong support for a coalition to combat terrorism given the government’s long standing struggle to maintain order within its own borders. Algeria has been plagued with fundamentalist terrorist activity for over a decade. Its problem has also been exported with a direct connection with the Ben Laden group. s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000146 f I /''Kzi / �r a ** /*• Ne < j. x*x yx> .zx. ? ? i >T’ •A: < 'XZ > < Xa * 'XZ PH v aZ 1 > : *xz > ? za* U v > U- > xz < ? y- 13 / xx/ ‘XZ > •a 5C <a . ■a / : :xz‘ x/z : c. .zx.f .*X /*. .Z\ A*A .ZX. & LH U :.......... xz> a Z Nx - >*/ :x z > < z< z*. a *x ’xz* z < < < Sa x $. f ? x Canada has significant commercial interests in Algeria given that it is one of our main trading partners in the Middle East. Canada a main destination for Algerian immigration and there is TUNISIA. MOROCCO Morocco and Tunis are unlikely to be either principal players or targets in the war on terrorism. For both countries, the principal concern is that instability in the region could have profound economic consequences especially on the tourism industry7 upon which each of them depends for a considerable portion of national revenues. THE “REGIONAL PROTAGONISTS” ISRAEL Israelis no doubt feel vindicated by the talk of a war on terrorism. It is a war, they would arsue., they have been fighting alone for much of the past 50 years. Israel will have the clear backing of its population to join the international fight, s 77 ' 77 77 7 Renewed violence, will only serve to undermine U S efforts to build global support, especially among Arab and Islamic countries. y ■*' /i f ty? * J f: Ur : : I Czii^kz1? / ^Kzj. / - s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000147 �o’* /’'x/X Lx- < ’XZ > < Sa * *XZ PH v aZ 1 > < j. x*x zs> .zs. <v ?zx. .*s Li *XZ ’ pi U > dz > “! ,f xx r c-1 ■ Z > -a S* LxXxZ: !xz’ x/9 f t 1 :: Z*. /*. .z\ a *a ;zx. < Z*x ^ZS^X* :xz> *a z *a / :x z > j>*>s f xv< ’yx ts y y z*. ^* .: a *x tlVx? -*/ iAx-* * J f: O" : : I L? t IH < yJ : < -xz* y < < < di i. f LZ ? X Canada does have a role in supporting the resumption of peace talks and in counselling Israeli restraint, while working with Israel in the war on terrorism. Tension in the region will be manifested in Israel and Canadians will be at risk. On the commercial side a reduction appears unavoidable, but increased regional tension could increase the size of the capital pool available for outward investment in the high tech sector (currently estimated at $ 1 billion) with Canada a logical and safe market. PALESTINIANS Palestinians will need to hear that the war is not against Palestinian rights but against the activities of certain Palestinian groups and we will need to work on the ground to demonstrate that this is indeed the case. s.15(1) - International s.21(1)(a) s.21(1)(b) 000148 /i f �Pages 149 to / a 151 are withheld pursuant to sections sont retenues en vertu des articles 15(1) - International, 21(1)(b) of the Access to Information Act de la Loi sur I’acces a (’information � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDNE00062 Title A name given to the resource "The War Against Terrorism and the Middle East," attached to "Draft paper on implications for MENA and Canada of war on terrorism." Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 25-Sep-01 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived GAC ATIP A-2011-00100 Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Global Affairs Canada Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Global War on Terror Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF