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                  <text>Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a {'information

SECRET

Draft Paragraphs for Memorandum to Cabinet on the "Fourth
Power" Problem
12.

It is recognized that the most satisfactory means

of preventing any 4th power from manufacturing nuclear weapons
would be an international disarmament agreement. The U.S.
has recently proposed that any fissionable materials produced
after March 1958 should, provided an effective system of
control had been accepted, be used only for non-weapons
purposes under international supervision.

If such a proposal

were to be generally agreed it would solve the 4th power
problem as far as the manufacture of nuclear weapons is concerned.
Moreover, because it is connected with other proposals for

7

reductions of existing stockpiles of fissionable materials
and nuclear weapons by means of transfers to stocks under
international supervision and because it would"be implemented
only as part of a programme involving reductions in armed forces
and conventional armaments, acceptance of such a proposal
would diminish and render less urgent the pressures for the
emergence of 4th powers possessing nuclear weapons or having
nuclear weapons under their operational control or having

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nuclear weapons on their territory earmarked for use by their
forces.

In such an approach there is no need to seek to

distinguish between the dangers of manufacture and the dangers
of possession by 4th powers or to try to draw a line between
long and short range or strategic and tactical or offensive
and defensive or deterrent and operational warheads.

Nor is

it necessary to propose to guard against the emergence of a
4th manufacturing power by expediting the emergence of several
powers possessing or controlling nuclear weapons of some
/^description./ The U.S. proposal appears to be the most
practical which has yet been advanced in disarmament negotiations. However, although the Soviet Union appears anxious
to reach some disarmament agreement and in particular to
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- 2 solve the 4th power problem in such a way as to ensure that
Germany does not emerge as the manufacturer or possessor of
nuclear weapons, it would seem overly optimistic to rely on
agreement being reached along the lines of the above U.S.
proposals.

It therefore seems desirable to consider alter-

native policies which might offer partial solutions to the
4th power problem.

Particular consideration has been given

to a possible system which might serve to prevent a 4th power
manufacturing large-scale nuclear weapons arising among the
NATO members, although it would not affect such other possible
contenders as Japan, India and Sweden.
Introduction of Nuclear Weapons in Shield Forces in NATO
13.

It does not appear reasonable to refuse to assist

other NATO members in gradually streamlining their shield
forces in the same manner as the United States and the United
Kingdom have done by the introduction of small nuclear warheads
for air defence and ground support weapons.

It might/perhaps /

be possible to limit the possession of nuclear warheads to
certain specific short-range air defence and ground support
weapons which are to be released to the NATO partners in
the near future. These weapons would consist of HONEST JOHN,
a ground-to-ground missile; MATADOR, an air-to-ground missile;
and some air defence weapons of the NIKE type.
14.

Such atomic weapons of limited range and size would

not enable a NATO power to embark on a war against a major
power possessing larger, long-range weapons of mass retaliation with the hope of success; nor should this modernization
programme, including the possession of limited range nuclear
weapons, provoke a preventive war by a major power.

(In

this connection Germany is a special case which will be
discussed in

separate paragraphs below.) We should not

attempt to minimize the grave dangers of a general war
if the smaller weapons were used.

However, a decision has

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- 3already been taken by two NATO powers, the U.S. and the U.K.,
to strengthen their ground forces and air defences in Western
Europe with these weapons. Thus it is proposed that we
recognize that the other nations in NATO may also wish to
reorganize their shield forces in a similar manner to those

7

of the United Kingdom and the United States, which would
entail the limited possession of nuclear warheads for air
defence and ground support weapons. This is consistent
with the proposals concerning United Kingdom and German plans
which were discussed in NATO in recent months.
15.

Specifically, it is proposed that, after consult-

ation with the United States and the United Kingdom, Canada
crystallize this new policy by proposing that nuclear warheads
for air defence and ground support weapons should be made

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available in gradual stages to NATO members. The nuclear
warheads would be stored in stockpiles- under the formal
custody of the Supreme Allied Commander "in Europe. SACEUR
ihfi&amp; would have to give his permission before the warheads were
used in any circumstances and he would give it only after
receiving the authorization of the NATO Council. This would
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(be in line with the interpretation made by NATO Foreign

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8 ft/^tA -v Ministers, including Mr. Dulles, and by General Gruenther, of
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MC 48, the report of the Military Committee of NATO on the

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most effective pattern of NATO military strength over the
next few years.

This report was approved by NATO at its

Ministerial Meeting in December 1954. Its interpretation
left to Governments through the NATO Council rather than to
the NATO military authorities the decision as to when NATO
nuclear weapons would be used.
16.

Initially, the nuclear warheads would be provided

to other NATO countries by the U.S. or the U.K., although
other NATO countries would not be prevented from manufacturing
them. Under the policy we propose they would be free but

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- 4-

would not be encouraged to do so. The supply of U.S. and
U.K. warheads under a military aid programme would, on
the contrary, be designed to discourage other NATO countries
from manufacturing them. Whenever other NATO countries
did begin to manufacture their own they would cease to

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receive the mutual aid supply from the U.S. and the U.K.
Under the new policy the nuclear warheads manufactured by
any other NATO member would also be under the custody of
SACEUR and would be placed in the same stockpiles with the
warheads provided to the country concerned by the U.S. or
U.K.

The new policy would, of course, require an elaborate

system of inspection to make sure that all warheads provided
to or manufactured by NATO countries were kept in the
stockpiles under SACEUR's control. This inspection would
be carried out by a joint NATO inspection organization or
possibly by the WEU Armament Control Agency on behalf of

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NATO in WEU countries.
17.

,

To facilitate the launching of this new policy

Canada might offer to provide as Mutual Aid, within reasonable financial limits, the uranium required for the manufacture by the U.S. or the U.K. of the warheads for the
short-range defensive weapons to be provided to other NATO
countries. This Mutual Aid supply would not be extended
to other NATO countries if and when they began to manufacture their own warheads for these weapons. Until this
policy is accepted, Canada^ is only free to sell uranium in
small, experimental reactor quantities. Once this policy
is accepted Canada should be able to sell uranium more
freely to other NATO partners. A separate memorandum is

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being submitted on this subject.
Difficulties Presented by the New Policy
18.

The new policy presents several difficulties which
...5
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SECRET

- 5must be reckoned with. Under present U.S. legislation
U.S. forces would have to retain formal custody of the
nuclear warheads to be provided to NATO members.

Our policy

thus rests on the hope that the U.S. Congress would agree
to permit the U.S. Government to provide NATO members with
nuclear warheads for the tactical, defensive weapons
described in paragraph 13 under the safeguards of the new
policy, unless, as__in_the_ case of the U.K., the U.S.
Government can provide such warheads without amendment to
the present legislation.

If Congressional consent is

needed, it should be facilitated by the fact that SACEUR
is and will probably always be a U.S. citizen but it
must be recognized that Congressional consent may still
prove very difficult to obtain.

If necessary to this

end, it might be possible to persuade other NATO members
that the troops maintaining custody of the stockpiles
should always be United States troops when any of the
nuclear warheads in them were of U.S. origin.
19.

The new policy is based on a distinction between

long-range, strategic, offensive weapons of mass retaliation
and short-range, tactical, defensive weapons of the type
mentioned in paragraph 13. This distinction is open to
criticism on the ground that the nuclear warheads of the
weapons cannot be thus categorized: so devastating is
their effect that even a so-called "small" one can be
used in a strategic role; conversely tactical roles are
being envisaged for some of the more powerful ones.
Nonetheless the general distinction between the two types
of weapons seems valid for the short-term purpose of
the new policy.

The policy is designed to cover the next

few years when the short-range, defensive weapons with
nuclear warheads will be made available to the NATO

�Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a (information

»

SECRET
- 6partners and when NATO members other than the U.S. and U.K
will either not be producing their own nuclear warheads or
will have barely begun to do so. A time will come, however,
when the policy will be overtaken and.outmoded by events;
possibly a disarmament agreement and almost certainly further
developments in the manufacture of warheads, such as the
production of high power, smaller weight, "clean" ones usable
in eltner a

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tactical or a strategic role, which will further

blur the distinction between the warheads themselves as far

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|1- (J^Tfl^as the terms "tactical" and "strategic" are concerned. Then,

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j^ would seem, the only valid remaining criteria will be the
type of launching or delivery apparatus and the defensive or
offensive objectives of the user. Neither criterion will

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be applicable to determine what warheads should be provided

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It seems evident that at that stage the policy would have to

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come under review and it might then be possible to set up an
effective NATO control system over the launching apparatuses

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P o n s with nuclear warheads. Such a control would be

facilitated by the likelihood that the United States will

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remain the main manufacturer of these apparatuses, though
a further complication must be admitted in the fact that
some NATO members are capable of manufacturing such apparatuses

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if they decide to devote the necessary resources to this
purpose.

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20.

The new policy might become difficult to retain

when the new ground forces of the NATO members become equipped
with weapons largely or entirely dependent on nuclear warheads
and their air defences become similarly dependent. NATO
members would then be unable to take effective action to
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repel invasion until the NATO Council's consent had been
received.
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- 721.

Another problem that will probably arise is that

no NATO country will wish to foreswear the right to manufacture
the whole family of nuclear weapons and to develop and use
the short- and long-range methods of delivery.

This is on

the assumption that the U.S. (and now the U.K.) will not
agree to place the warheads for all its long-range, strategic
nuclear weapons under SACEUR's custody and NATO Council control,
if only on the sound practical grounds that a decision of
the NATO Council could not be given quickly enough in the
circumstances where the U.S. would wish to use its long-range

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deterrent weapons.

(If they could not be used quickly, they

would, of course, cease to be deterrents.)
22.

As mentioned in paragraph 14 above, Germany is an

exceptional and difficult case. Because of its division and
its geographical position, hostilities involving NATO are more
likely to break out along the border between the two Germanies
or in Berlin than at any other point in the NATO area. A
revolt in East Germany would create an extremely delicate
situation because of the temptation of West Germans to go to
the assistance of their East German brethren. Moreover, the
classic invasion route to Western Europe lies across the
North German plain.
23.

For all these reasons the Germans may well wish to

have access to nuclear weapons in case of need. Although
they are explicitly bound by the Paris Treaties not to
manufacture atomic, biological or chemical weapons, they are
technically and scientifically able to develop their own
nuclear weapons and may in the future seek a revision of
their obligations under the Paris Treaties if they are not
satisfied with alternative measures to make it possible for
them to defend themselves with the latest tactical weapons.
At the same time there is strong opposition within Germany

. . .8
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- 8to any German Government manufacturing nuclear weapons.
A NATO policy which made nuclear weapons available to German
armed forces in case of war might therefore satisfy German
public opinion and meet Germany's essential defence requirements, although no one can predict that in the long run, if
other NATO countries such as France are to develop their own
atomic weapons, Germany (possibly in cooperation with France)
may not also wish to manufacture its own.
24.

Although, as was stated in paragraph 14 above, the

supply of nuclear weapons under SACEUR's custody and NATO
Council control in peacetime to NATO members should not
provoke a preventive war, the Soviet Union's genuine alarm
. at the prospect of Germany either manufacturing or possessing
its own nuclear weapons should not be under-estimated.
Although Germany could not embark on a war for the liberation
of East Germany with any hope of success, a Germany manufacturing or possessing its own atomic weapons even under
the safeguards we propose would be very anxiously regarded
by the Soviet Union, since Germany would be in a position
to involve the other NATO powers.

Department of External Affairs
May 29, 1957-

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