https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/81e17a5e6570e84730d75b015c9ace84.pdf 2476b1fcaebde2549dcc029ff7d1b48a PDF Text Text Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information 2 JIBTS 200-2113-2 TOP SECRET Sexp^f *> r* \\ s$ ATOMIC WINERABILITY STUDY OF CANADA THE CITY OF SAINT JOHN I CANADIAN EYES ONLY I7. r Object of the Study This is one of a series of reports on major Canadian cities and targets which provide the basic information on enemy capabilities to cause damage to persons and to vital points by atomic attack. This study is not concerned with the probability that such an enemy attack will be made. II Definitions of Terms Used Ground Zero The point on the ground directly under the point of burst in the air Aiming Point The point on the ground directly under the point where the bomb is aimed to be burst in the air No Rescue No organized and trained rescue is carried out, which means effectively that only people who are not trapped or who can escape by their own efforts survive Seriously Injured - Hospitalized persons who would not report to work for a considerable period of time Lightly Injured First Aid cases who would be able to contribute to their work a few days after the attack Nighttime - The time during which people are in their normal places of residence Daytime - The time during which people are at their normal places of work III Sources of Basic Information (a) Population Information on the nighttime distribution of population is based on a redistribution of the 1951 census returns in greater detail to show the population of individual city blocks. This is considered for the purpose of this study a sufficiently good approximation to the nighttime distribution of population. It has not been possible at this time to estimate the daytime distribution of population. 000690 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 2 (b) Vital Points Information on other Vital Points was taken from the 1953 List of Vital Points, which is the work of the Interdepartmental Cowardttee on Vital Points. The list for the Saint John area is given in Appendix "A". (c) Scientific Data Basic data on the effects of atomic bomb explosions on people and structures was prepared by the Defence Research Board (Scientific Adviser to the Civil Defence Co-ordinator). IV Factors Considered in Selecting Aiding Points for Study The effects of an attack on a city vary widely with the location of the bomb burst. As it is not considered practicable to study all possible points of burst, a series of Aiming Points have been selected which are calculated to give the maximum effect on population and on different groupings of Vital Points. The effects of an attack vary widely with the energy released by the bomb. As it is not possible to estimate the energy level of the bomb most likely to be used, separate estimates were made for a bomb with the lowest probable energy and the highest probable energy level. The effects on people also vary widely with circumstances of warning and rescue. A series of estimates were therefore made for different conditions of warning and rescue* The estimates made for conditions WITH RESCUE are for ideal rescue conditions with organized and trained rescue teams, in temperate climates and when the atomic attack is unsupported by other weapons. In spite of rescue efforts casualties would tend towards those given for NO RESCUE under severe winter conditions, or if Chemical 'warfare attack were combined with atomic attack or if the spread of fire were extensive. Conditions of visibility would also alter the effect of an attack. Poor visibility would reduce the extent of fire and the number of radiation casualties and would have some effect on the chances of pinpointing the target from the air. All calculations are based on an average clear day over a city with a visibility of about six miles. For Saint John one Aiming Point was chosen to give maximum effect on the nighttime distribution of population and another to give the maximum effect on Vital Points considered collectively. An Aiming Point was also chosen to give the maximum effect on Harbour facilities. The present study is confined to the effect of a bomb delivered by an airborne vehicle. It is possible that Saint John, a Port City, with shipbuilding and repairing among its major industries, would be an attractive target for an underwater burst. A separate study will be made of the effects of this type of attack. 000691 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SBCRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 3 V Results of the Study of the City of Saint John A nighttime attack on this city could result in casualties among 55-70$ of the population by a 20 Kiloton bomb, depending on conditions of warning and rescue; and 65-90$ by a 100 Kiloton bomb, and cause serious damage to Vital Points. A nighttime attack on Vital Points \»ouid destroy these points and cause casualties among 40-55$ of the population if a 20 Kiloton bomb were used; 65-85$ by a 100 Kiloton bomb. An attack on the Harbour would destroy many of the Harbour facilities, cause serious^damage to Vital Points and cause casualties among 40-65$ of the population by a 20 Kiloton bomb; 60-85$ by a 100 Kiloton bomb. (a) Effects on Population The effect of an attack on the nighttime population is given in Tables I and II for each Aiming Point and for different conditions of warning and rescue. (b) Effects on Vital Points A summary of the effect on Vital Points is given in Table III for each Aiming Point. The extent of damage to Vital Points and the effect on their various functions is also described below for each of the Aiming Points. The relative importance of each Vital Point to the Canadian - U.S. war effort is indicated by the category (AA, A,B or C),r.which is given for each Vital Point in Appendix "A". A definition of each of the categories is also given in Apjendix "A". 000692 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a /'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 4 (c) Detailed Disoussion of an Attack on Each of the Aiming Points Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point # I-N - Chosen to give maximum effect on population by a 20 Kiloton bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 55-70$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population information is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Ship Repairing Sain^ John Dry Dock Co Ltd - Category A There would be no serious damage to the drydock from an air attack. However all shops and most equipment would receive severe structural damage from blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Approximately 10-20$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Petroleum Facilities Imperial Oil Limited - Category A Storage facilities would be completely destroyed by blast and fire. Hydro Power Sources Fuel Power Station N.B. Hydro Electric Commission - Category A Plant and equipment would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 95-100$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Port of Saint John i«!harves and Piers - No serious damage would be caused to wharves and piers by this attack. Transit Sheds - Destroyed - Sheds on the Long Wharf and Pugsley Wharf and sheds numbers 5,6,9,10 and 11 would be destroyed. Serious damage - Sheds numbers 1,2,3,7,8 and 12 would be seriously damaged. Moderate damage would be caused to sheds 13 and 14. Grain Elevators - no serious damage would result from blast but there is a probability of damage to the C.N.R. elevator from fire. Shipbuilding and Repairing - the major facilities in this category are discussed above. 000693 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EY.S ONLY - 5 Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point # I-N - Chosen to give maximum effect on population by a 100 Kiloton bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 65-90$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population information is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Ship Repairing Saint John Dry Dock Co Ltd - Category A There would be no serious damage to the dry dock from an air attack. However all shops and equipment would be destroyed. Approximately 25-60$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Petroleum Facilities Imperial Oil Limited - Category A Storage facilities would be completely destroyed by blast and fire. Power Sources Fuel Power Station N.B. Hydro Electric Commission - Category A Plant and equipment would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 95-100$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Port of Saint John Wharves and Piers - the following wharves and piers would be seriously damaged by this attack: Long Wharf, Pier number 4 and the Oil Wharves in Courtney Bay. Damage,to other major wharves would not be serious. Transit Sheds - all transit sheds would be destroyed by blast and fire. Grain Elevators - the C.N.R. elevator would be seriously damaged by blast and fire. The National Harbours Board and C.P.R. elevators would not be seriously damaged by blast, but the probability of fire is high. Shipbuilding and Repairing - the major facilities in this category are discussed above. 000694 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 6 * Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point. # 2 - Chosen to give maximum effeot on Vital Paints by a 20 Kiloton bomb A ni^ttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties amohg 40^55$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population information is hdt St present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described belowi Shipbuilding and Ship Repairing Saint John Dry Dock Company Limited - Category A The dry dock would not be structurally, damaged by an air attack. All shops and equipment, however, would be destroyed. Approximately 75-100$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Petroleum Facilities Imperial Oil Limited - Category A Storage facilities would be destroyed by blast and fire. Power Sources Fuel Power Station, N.B. Electric Power Commission - Category A Plant and equipment would be severely damaged structurally by blast. There is a probability of further damage from fire particularly if stockpile of fuel is held nearby. Approximately 30-60$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Port of Saint John Wharves and Piers - All wharves in Courtney Bay, including the Oil Wharves would be seriously damaged. No serious damage would be caused to other major piers. Transit Sheds - Destroyed - Sheds on Long Wharf and Pugsley Wharf would be destroyed by blast and fire. Moderate damage - sheds numbers 3,5,6,9,10,11,12,13 and 14 would receive moderate structural damage from blast. There is a probability of further damage from fire. Slight damage - sheds 1,2,7 and 8 would receive slight structural damage from blast. Further damage could be caused by fire. Grain Elevators - No serious blast damage would occur but there is a probability of damage from fire, particularly to the C.N.R. elevator. Shipbuilding and Repairing - the major facilities in this category are discussed above. 000695 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY i7« Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point # 2 * Chosen to give maximum effect on Vital Points by a 100 Kiloton bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 65-85$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population information is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Ship Repairing Saint John Dry Dock Company Limited - Category A The dry dock would not be structurally damaged by an air attack. All shops and equipment, however, would be destroyed. Approximately 75-100$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Petroleum Facilities Imperial Oil Limited - Category A Storage facilites would be destroyed by blast and fire. Power Sources Buel Power Station, N.B. Electric Power Co.amission - Category A Plant and equipment would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 60-70$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Port of Saint John Wharves and Piers - All wharves and piers in Courtney Bay, including the Oil Wharves, would be seriously damaged. No serious damage would be caused to other major piers. Transit Sheds - all transit sheds would be destroyed by blast and fire. Grain Elevators - Elevators would not receive serious structural damage from blast but there is a probability of serious damage from fire. Shipbuilding and Repairing - the major facilities in this category are discussed above. 000696 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN LYES ONLY - 8 Effect of a Burst over Aiming Point # 5 - Chosen to give maximum effect on Vital Points by a 20 Kiloton bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point would cause casualties among 40-65$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue(Tables I and II). As daytime population information is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Ship Repairing Saint John Dry Dock Company Limited - Category A The dry dock would not be damaged. Very slight structural damage would be caused to the shops by blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Approximately 5-10$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Petroileum Facilities Imperial Oil Limited - Category A Storage tanks would be destroyed by blast and fire. Power Sources Fuel Power Station, N.B. Electric Power Commission - Category A Plant and equipment would be destroyed by blast and fire. Approximately 30-60$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Port of Saint John Wharves and Piers - Pier 4 would be seriously damaged by blast. All other major piers would not be seriously damaged by this attack. Transit Sheds - all sheds would be destroyed by blast and fire. Grain Elevators - the National Harbours Board, C.N.R. and C.P.R. would be destroyed by blast and fire. Shipbuilding and Repairing - the major facilities in this Category are discussed above. 000697 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 9 Effeet of a burst over Aiming Point # 5 - Chosen to, give maximum effect on Vital Points by a.100 Kiloton bomb A nighttime attack on this1 Aiming Point would cause casualties among 60-85$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population information is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Shipbuilding and Ship Repairing Saint John Dry Dock Company Limited - Category A The dry dock would not be damaged. Shops would receive severe structural damage from blast and there is a probability of further damage from fire. Approximately 15-30$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Petroleum Facilities Imperial Oil Limited - Category A Storage tanks would be destroyed by blast and fire. Power Sources Fuel Power Station, N.B. Electric Power Commission - Category A Plant and equipment would be destroyed by a combination of blast and fire. Approximately 65-90$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Port of Saint John Wharves and Piers - Pier 4, Long Wharf and the Oil Wharf of Imperial Oil Company in Courtney Bay would be seriously damaged by this attack. All other major wharves and piers would not be seriously damaged. Transit Sheds - all sheds would be destroyed by blast and fire. Grain Elevators - All grain elevators would be destroyed by blast and fire. Shipbuilding and Repairing - the major facilities in this category are discussed above. (d) Effects on Morale It is expected that the effect on morale in large centres of population in Canada, and at least the northern parts of the United States, would be much the same whichever city is attacked by an atomic bomb. The effect will probably be somewhat proportionate to the size of the casualties inflicted by individual bombs and by the number of cities attacked. Air Navigation Aspects of an Attack With the equipment at present available to the Russian Long Range Air Force, Saint John would be a very easy target to locate on either a hji.gh or low level attack under any weather conditions for a well trained navigator not familiar with the area. Accuracy in identifying specific Aliiiing Points is a more critical aspect. However, the area of the city is small and the Vital Points are situated within the city and are not too widely separated. An atomic explosion over almost any part of the built up area would cause serious damage to both Vital Points and Population; though of a lesser magnitude than described by this report. 000698 / �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE I - CASUALTY ESTIMATES - CITY OF SAINT JOHN TOP SECRET NIGHTTIME ATTACK 20 K i l o t o n Bomb CANADIAN EYES OF 100 K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming P o i n t if 1 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n Seriously Injured Killed Lightly Injured Killed Seriously I n j u r ed Lightly Injured No W a r n i n g - No Rescue 37,600 5,400 3,600 No Warning - No Rescue 50,300 5,000 2,600 No Warning - With Rescue 26,900 9,700 5,500 No Warning - With Rescue 38,100 11,100 4,800 With Warning - Uith Rescuo 23,200 7,700 5,400 With Warning - With Rescue 33,100 8,000 4,400 Aiming Point Ji IT 2 - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effoct on V i t a l P o i n t s No Warning — No Resoue 27,100 6,500 4,500 No Warning - No Rescue 44,300 6,000 3,600 No Warning - V/ith Rescue 17,400 10,800 6,300 No Warning - With Rescue 29,800 12,500 6,200 With Warning - With Rescue 13,700 8,200 6,000 With Warning - With Rescue 24,700 8,700 5,400 Aiming Poin t 4 3 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on Harbour F a c i l i t i e s No Warning - No Rescue 29,200 7,300 5,000 No Warning - No Rescue 46,500 6,400 3,200 No Warning - With Rescue 13,300 13,400 7,800 No Warning - With Rescue 29,600 15,100 6,300 8,800 10.100 7,400 With Warning - V/ith Rescue 22,600 10,600 5,700 With Warning - With Rescue 000699 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET TABLS II - CASUALTIES AS PERCENTAGE CF POPUIATIONx CANADIAJEYES ONLY NIGHTTIME ATTACK 20 K j l o t o n Bomb 100 K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming Poin t ft 1 - Choson t o Give Maximum Effect on P o p u l a t i o n Killed Lightly Injured Seriously Injured Lightly Injured Killed Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 55 10 5 No Warning - No Rescue 75 10 5 No Warning - With Reseue 40 15 10 No Warning - With Rescue 60 15 5 With Warning - With Rescue 35 10 10 With Warning - With Rescue 50 10 5 Aiming Point ft 2_ - Chosen t o Give MaximiHa Effect on V i t a l P o i n t s No Warning - No Rescue 40 10 5 No Warning - No Rescue 70 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 25 15 10 No Warning - 'With Rescue 45 20 10 With Warning - With Rescue 20 10 10 With Warning - With Rescue 40 15 10 Aiming Point ft. 3_ - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on Harbour F a c i l i t i e s No Warning - No Rescue 45 10 10 No Warning - No Rescue 70 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 20 20 10 No Warning - With Rescue 45 25 10 With Warning - With Rescue 15 15 10 V/ith Warning - With Rescue 35 15 10 x Based on 65,700 within 3 miles of an Aiming Point. The population of the metropolitan area i s 78,300 of the c i t y proper i s 50,800 000700 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE I I I - SUMMARY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POD-ITS TOP SECRET CANADL'iN EYES 01-HLY Aiming P o i n t ft I-N - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on P o p u l a t i o n Vital Point Vital Point Category Structural Damage by b l a s t (fo) Probability of Fire Damage to Contents With F i r e No F i r e — - M « I . j a r . • • » — — i i i i m i ' • • — • 20 K i l o t o n Boirib 3aint John Dry Dock Co Ltd A 75$ Approx Med Imperial Oil Ltd Courtenay Bay A 100 High Fuel Power Station NB Electric Power Commission A 100 High 100 100 100 100 100 100 75 - 100 * £ Approx 75$ 100 Kiloton Bomb Saint John Dry Dock Co Ltd A 100 High Imperial Oil Ltd Courtenay Bay A 100 High Fuel Power Station NB Electric Power Commission A 100 High 000701 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABIE I I I - 3DLJMART OF EFFECT ON VIT'.L POINTS TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Poin t ftf 2 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s Vital Point Vital Point Category Structural Damage by Blast ($) Probability of Fire Damage to Contents With Fire 100 100 Med 100 75 - 100 100 100 100 100 No Fire 20 Kiloton Bomb S a i n t John Dry Dock Co Ltd A 100 High I m p e r i a l Oil Ltd Court enay Bay A 100 High F u e l Power S t a t i o n NB E l e c t r i c Powor Commission A 75 - 100 100 Kiloton Bomb Saint John Dry Dock Co Ltd A 100 High I m p e r i a l O i l Ltd Courtenay Bay A 100 High Fuel Power S t a t i o n NB E l e c t r i c Power Commission A 100 High 000702 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE III - SOMMARY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POINTS TOP SECRET -CANADIAN EYES ONLY Aiming Point ft 3 - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on Harbour F a c i l i t i e s Vital Point v i t a l Point Category Structural Damage by Blast (fo) Probability of Fire Damage t o Contents With F i r e No Fire 20 Kiloton Bomb Saint John Dry Dock Co Ltd A 0-25 Med Imperial Oil Ltd Courtenay Bay A 100 High Fuel Power S t a t i o n NB E l e c t r i c Powor Commission A 100 High 75 - 100 0-25 100 100 100 Kiloton Bomb Saint John Dry Dock Co Ltd A Imperial Oil Ltd Courtenay Bay A 100 High Fuel Power S t a t i o n , NB E l e c t r i c Power Commission A 100 High 75 - 100 Med 75 - 100 100 75$ Approx 100 000703 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY APPENDIX "A" - STUDY OF CITY OF SAINT JOHN For the City 6f Saint John the iist of Vital Points as determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points is as follows: Saint John Drydock Cb» Ltd Imperial Oil, near Pitt and Broad Streets, Courtney Bay Saint John Fuel Power Station of New Brunswick Electric Power Commission The categories determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points are designed for sabotage studies. They have been adapted for the present study by raising those points which are important to the joint Canadian U.S. war effort from Category "A" to a superior Category "AA", and by restating the significance of the categories. The categories used are as follows: Category;., '..AA" Individual plant s or buildings of sufficient importance t o the North American war effort t o be considered possible atomic bomb t a r g e t s , , i r r e s p e c t i v e of any e f f e c t s of an A-bomb attack on the t a r g e t on other v i t a l points . Additional effects w i l l , however, play a part in determining the r e l a t i v e importance of Category "AA" t a r g e t s and they have, t h e r e f o r e , been studied and reported. Category "A" Individual plants or buildings not of sufficient importance t o the North American war effort to be considered A-bomb t a r g e t s by themselves, but which may become A-bomb t a r g e t s if the other effects of the explosion of a bomb over the t a r g e t would produce a sufficient cumulative effect on population and other v i t a l p o i n t s . Category "B" Important points to be considered in conjunction with a t t a c k s on Category "AA" and Category "A" t a r g e t s . Category "C" Minor points to be considered in conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" and Category "A" targets. 000704 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDIM02652 Title A name given to the resource Report, "Atomic Vulnerability Study of Canada, The City of Saint John" Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 1953-06-22 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Nuclear Vulnerability Study, RG25, Vol. 4563, File 50041-A-40, Part 2, LAC. Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Department of External Affairs Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Early Cold War, Atomic Vulnerability Description An account of the resource Atomic Vulnerability Study Panel, Ottawa Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF Language A language of the resource en