https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/544a7e3192adac941c29b3fdae71da2d.pdf 039fafb6fe4793f11fe8af9696d1607a PDF Text Text Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information JIBTS 2 0 0 - 2 1 1 3 - 2 TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY ATOMIC VULNEMBILITY STUDY OF CANADA THE CITY OF CALGARY DQWKSSADE ^ SERF)' - REQUIT A SECPJEV I Object of the Study This is one of a series of reports on major Canadian cities and targets which provide the basic information on enemy capabilities to cause damage to persons and tc vital points by atomic attack. This study is not concerned with the probability that such an enemy attack will be made. II Definition of Terms Used Ground Zero - The point on the ground directly under the point of burst in the air. Aiming P o i n t - The point on the ground directly under the point where the bomb is aimed to be burst in the air. No Rescue - No organized and trained rescue is carried out, which means effectively that only people who are not trapped or who can escape by their own efforts survive. Seriously Injured - Hospitalized persons who would not report to work for a considerable period of time. Lightly Injured - First Aid cases who would be able to contribute to their work a few days after the attack. Nighttime - The time during which people are in their normal places of residence, Daytime - The time during which people are at their normal place of work. III Sources of Basic Information (a) Population Information on the daytime said the nighttime distribution of population was obtained from the Civil Defence Director of the city of Calgary. 000243 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 2 (b) Vital Points Information on other Vital Points was taken from the 1952 List of Vital Points, which is the work of the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points. The list SOr the Calgary area is given in Appendix "A". (c) Scientific Data Basic data on the effects of atomic bomb explosions on people and structures was prepared by the Defence Research Board (Scientific Adviser to the Civil Defence Co-Ordinator). IV Factors Considered in Selecting Aiming Points for Study The effects of an attack on a city vary widely with the location of the bomb burst. As it is not considered practicable to study all possible points of burst, a series of aiming points have been selected which are calculated to give the maximum effect on population and on different groupings of Vital Points. The effects of an attack vary widely with the energy released by the bomb. As it is not possible to estimate the energy level of the bomb most likely to be used, separate estimates were made for a bomb with the lowest probable energy and the highest probable energy level. The effects on people also vary widely with circumstances of warning and rescue. A series of estimates were therefore made for different conditions of warning and rescue. The estimates made for conditions WITH RESCUE are for ideal rescue conditions with organized and trained rescue teams, in temperate climates and when the atomic attack is unsupported by other weapons. In spite of rescue efforts casualties would tend towards those given for NO RESCUE under severe winter conditions, or if Chemical Warfare attack were combined with atomic attack or if the spread of fire were extensive. Conditions of visibility would also alter the effect of an attack. Poor visibility would reduce the extent of fire and the number of radiation casualties and would have some effect on the chances of pinpointing the target from the air. All calculations are based on an average clear day over a city with a visibility of about six miles. For the city of Calgary Aiming Points were chosen to give the maximum effect on both the daytime and the nighttime distribution of population. Aiming Points were also chosen to give the maximum effect on Vital Points. In the city of Calgary these points are so distributed that two separate Aiming Points are required to destroy all Vital Points if the lowest probable energy level of bomb were used; one Aiming Point required if the highest probable energy level were used. The Vital Points of Calgary are located outside the city and widely separated from the area giving maximum effect on population. For this reason a single atomic bomb, of either energy level, would not be sufficient to attack effectively both • population and Vital Points. 000244 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 3 V Results of the Study of the City of Calgary An attack on the population of Calgary by a 20 Kiloton Bomb could cause casualties among 40-50$ of the population during a daytime attack; 35-50$ during a nighttime attack, depending on conditions of warning and rescue. If a 100 Kiloton bomb were used casualties could occur among 60-80$ of the population during a daytime attack; 55-80$ during a nighttime attack. No damage would be caused to Vital Points if either of these Aiming Points were used. The Vital Points are located at such a distance from the centres of population that / 10-15$ of the population would become casualties if a 100 Kiloton bomb were used against the Vital Points; and approximately 1$ of the population would become casualties if a 20 Kiloton bomb were used for this purpose. (a) Effects on Population The effects of an attack on the daytime and' nighttime population is given in Tables I & II for each Aiming Point and for different conditions of warning and rescue. (b) Effects on Vital Points A summary of the effect on Vital Points is given in Table III for each Aiming Point. The extent of damage to Vital Points and the effect on their various functions is also described below for each of the Aiming Points. The relative importance of each vital point to the Canadian - U.S. war effort is indicated by the category (AA, A, B or C ) , which is given for each vital point in Appendix "A". A definition of each of the categories is also given in Appendix "A". 000245 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 4 (c) Detailed Discussion of an Attack on Each of the Aiming Points Effect of a Burst Over Aiming Pointffi-D - Chosen to give maximum effect on the daytime distribution of population An attack on this Aiming.Point could cause casualties among 40-55$ of the population if a 20 Kiloton bomb were used; 60-88$ if a 100 Kiloton bomb were used. No serious damage-would be caused to Vital Points, Effect of a Burst Over Aiming Point $I-N- Chosen to give maximum effect on the nighttimedistribution of population An attack on this Aiming Point could cause casualties among 35-50$ of the population if a 20 Kiloton bomb were used; 55-80$ if a 100 Kiloton bomb were used. No serious damage would be caused to Vital Points. Effect of a Burst Over Aiming PointffiAI - Chosen to give maximum effect on one grouping of Vital Points by a 20 Kiloton Bomb An attack on this Aiming Point could cause casualties among / 5$ of the population during a daytime or a nighttime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Petroleum Facilities Imperial Refinery - Category A (a) Storage facilities would be completely destroyed by blast and the probability of fire is high. Approximately 60-70$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. (b) Refining facilities would receive no damage from blast other than superficial, but may be damaged by fire. British American Refinery - Category A (a) Storage facilities would be completely destroyed by blast and the probability of fire is high. Approximately 60-70$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. (b) Refining facilities would receive no damage from blast other than superficial, but may be damaged by fire. Chemicals, Explosives and Fertilizers Consolidated Mining and Smelting - Category A No serious damage would be caused to this industry by blast and the probability of fire would be low. No serious casualties would occur among shift on duty. 000246 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 5 Effect of a Burst Over Aiming Point -^2A2 - Chosen to give maximum effect on a second grouping of Vital Points by a 20 Kiloton Bomb An attack on this Aiming Point could cause casualties to approximately 1$ of the population during a daytime or a nighttime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described belows Petroleum Facilities Imperial Refinery - Category A (a) Storage facilities would be destroyed by blast and the probability of fire is high. Approximately 60-70$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. (b) Refining facilities would receive no damage other than superficial but may be damaged by fire, British American Refinery - Category A (a) Storage facilities would receive no serious damage from blast or fire. No casualties would occur among shift on duty. (b) Refining facilities would receive no damage other than superficial. Chemicals, Explosives and Fertilizers Consolidated Mining and Smelting Co - Category A Structures comprising this industry would receive severe structural damage from blast alone and the probability of fire is high. Approximately 60-70$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Contents and the equipment would be destroyed. Effect of a Burst Over Aiming Point #2B - Chosen to give maximum effect on one grouping of Vital Points by a 100 Kiloton Bomb An attack on this Ain.ing Point could cause casualties among / 10-15$ of the population during a daytime or a nighttime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Petroleum Facilities Imperial Hennery - Category A - both storage and refining facilities of this industry would be totally destroyed by fire and blast and 100$ of shift on duty killed. British American Refinery - Category A (a) Storage facilities would be destroyed by blast and the probability of fire is high. Approximately 15-30$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. (b) Refining facilities would receive no damage other than superficial from blast but could be damaged by fire. Chemicals, Explosives and Fertilizers Consolidated Mining and Smelting Co - Category A Buildings would receive serious structural damage from blast and the probability of fire is high. It is likely that little contents or equipment could be salvaged. Approximately 15-30$ of personnel would be killed or seriously injured. 000247 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 6 (d) Effects on Morale It is expected that the effect on morale in large centres of population in Canada, and at-least the northern parts of the United States, would be much the same whichever city is attacked by an atomic bomb. The effect will probably be somewhat proportionate to the size of the casualties inflicted by individual bombs and by the number of cities attacked. VI Air Navigation Aspects of an Attack On a high altitude attack, with good visibility, Calgary would not be difficult to locate and to identify visually on any of three likely approaches. However, if radar was to be used it might be difficult to identify the target as there are no distinctive radar pinpoints in the immediate vicinity of the city. On a low level attack, providing that the position of the aircraft was accurately known when the low level approach started, there would be no difficulty in locating and identifying Calgary. Accuracy in identifying specific Aiming Points is a more critical aspect. Areas giving the maximum effect on Vital Points and on population are small and widely separated. It is possible that the effect of an attack would be greatly reduced from those described if other Aiming Points were used. 000248 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'informption TABLE I CASUALTY ESTIilATES - CITY OF CAHJGARY TOP_ SECRET .DAYTIME ATTACK 20 K l l o t p n, Bpn& CANADIAN EYES ONLS 100 K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming Point # 1 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e o t on P o p u l a t i o n Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 45,300 12,400 7,800 No Warning - With Rescue .27,800 19,600 With Warning - With Resoue 21,500 14,500 Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 76,200 11,700 5,900 IS,900 No Warning - With Rescue 49,500 23,600 10,600 10,300 With Warning - With Rescue 39,900 16,600 9,200 Aiming P o i n t §2AI - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on One I s o l a t e d Group of V i t a l P o i n t s b y a 20 Kiloto n Bomb Aiming P o i n t j? 2B - Chosen t o Give Maximura E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s b y a 100 K i l o t o n Bomb No Warning - No Rescue 1,900 2,500 2,200 No Warning - No Rescue 5,700 5,900 5,200 No Warning - V/ith Rescue 900 2,800 2,400 No Warning - With Rescue 2,000 6,900 5,800 With Warning - With Rescue 600 1,700 1,600 With Warning - With Rescue 1,300 4,200 3,400 Aiming Point # 3 ^ ~ Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on a Second I s o l a t e d Group of V i t a l P o i n t s b y a 20 K i l o t o n Bomb No Warning - No Resoue 700 700 600 No Warning - With Rescue 100 800 700 With Warning - With Rescue 200 500 400 000249 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'informption TABLE I CASUALTY 1STIMATBS - CITY OF CALGARY TO? SECRET NIGHTTIHE ATTACK 20 K i l o t o n CANADIAN EYES ONLY 100 K i l o t o n Aiming Point # I - Chosen to. Give Maximum Effect on Population Killed No Warning - No Rescue 43,500 No Warning - With Rescue 23,700 With Warning - With Res cue 17,600 Seriously Injured Lightly In.iured Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 78,200 12,100 6,300 Lightly Injured 11,800 7,500 19,500 11,000 No Warning - With Rescue 47,200 25,700 11,700 14,500 10,100 With Warning - With Rescue 36,500 17,500 9,500 Aiming P o i n t J f e A l - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on One I s o l a t e d Group of V i t a l P o i n t s by a 20 K i l o t o n Boirib No Warning - No Rescue .Killed 1,800 2,000 1 700 No Warning - With Rescue 900 2,300 1 800 With Warning - With Resoue 600 1,500 1 200 Aiming Poin t fgB - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on V i t a l P o i n t s by a 100 K i l o t o n Bomb No Warning - No Rescue 4,600 6,300 5,200 No Warning - With Rescue 1,300 7,100 5,700 700 4,300 3,300 With Warning - With Rescue Aiming P o i n t ^2A2 - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effeot on a Second I s o l a t e d Group of V i t a l P o i n t s by a 20 K i l o t o n Bomb No Warning - No Rescue 400 600 500 No Warning - With Rescue 100 600 500 0 400 300 With Warning - With Rescue 000250 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a /'information T--.BLJ 11 - CASII,l/rES - 3 P^RCIiMT ,(L, (ff I'OPUL-.TI OW X TOP SECRET4 OAHABL. E YZi ONLY DuYTL.IS ATTACK 100 Kiloton Boirb 20 K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming Point y l - Chosen t o Give Maximura E f f e c t Killed Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 40 10 Ho Warning - With Rescue 25 10 With Warning - With Rescue 20 10 10 10 No Warning • • Wit h Rescue With Warning - With Rescue A [l Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 65 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 45 " 20 10 With Warning - With Rescue 35 15 10 I ; -.'.u.ul'; Aiming P o i n t -,r2B - Chosen to Give Maximum E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s by a 100 K i l o t o n Borrb No Warning - No Rescue Ai Ai /l 5 No Warning - With Rescue I Lightly Injured Killed Injured Aiming Poin t ;,:2A1 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on One Grouping of V i t a l s P o i n t s by a 20 Kiloton Boi* No Warning - No Rescue on P o p u l a t i o n Lightly 5 • With Warning - With Rescue 1 5 5 5 5 5 /5 Aiming P o i n t //2A2 - Chosen to Give Maximum E f f e c t on a Second Grouping cf V i t a l P o i n t s by a 20 K i l o t o n Borrb No Warning - No Rescue /I A A No Warning - With Rescue /l With Warning - With Rescue £l A A A X Based on 114,300 - w i t h i n 5 mile r a d i u s of aiming p o i n t , Tlie p o p u l a t i o n of the m e t r o p o l i t a n area is 139,105 of t t e c i t y proper 129,060 000251 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information T ; J ? L E 1 1 •» C A S ^ t / H E S . , W . . N I G H T T I i - S PEIICEIIT. XS& W P O P U L A T I O N TOP oECRET * CANADIAN EYES^NLY i^MLY A T T A C K i r'irwililii IMtmi'm —••w—ww—#»*l'ii* «i 100 K i l o t o n Bomb 2ft K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming P o i n t i r i - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on P o p u l a t i o n Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured Lightly Injured Killed Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 65 10 5 No Warning - No Rescue 35 10 5 No ".'arning - With Rescue 20 20 10 No Warning - With Rescue 40 20 10 With Warning - With Rescue 15 10 10 With Warning - With Rescue 30 15 10 Aiming P o i n t i,:2Al - Chosen t o Give uaximum E f f e c t on Ore Grouping of V i t a l P o i n t s by a 20 K i l o t o n Bomb .-iming P o i n t ,/2B - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on V i t a l P o i n t s by a 100 K i l o t o n Borib Al l No Warning - No Rescue 5 5 5 Z.i l l No Warning - With Rescue 1 5 5 / 1 l l With Warning - With Rescue 1 5 Z.5 No Warning - No Rescue tf\l No Warning - With Rescue With Warning - With Rescue Aiming Point ,/2A2 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t / on a Second Grouping of V i t a l P o i n t s by a 2 0 K i l o t c n Bonb No Warning - No Rescue No "'arning - With Rescue Ly / 1 / 1 Z.i Z.i Li 0 / 1 Z.i With. Warning - With Rescue x Based on 118,800 - w i t h i n 5 m i l e s r a d i u s of aiming p o i n t . The p o p u l a t i o n of tteo m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a is 139,105 • of t h e c i t y proper i s 129,060 000252 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'infornpation TOP SECRET TABUS I I I - smS..ARY OF EFE2CT ON VIT,'L POINTS Cx&klfLM EYES ONLY Aiming Point y I-D - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Daytime Population V i t a l Point Vital Point Category Structural Damage b y B l a s t {%) Probability of Fire Damage to Contents With Fire No Fire 20 K i l o t o n Bomb Imperial Refinery 1) Storage F a c i l i t i e s 2) R e f i n i n g F a c i l i t i e s B r i t i s h -American R e f i n e r y 1) Storag e F a c i l i t i e s 2) R e f i n i n g F a c i l i t i e s A Consolidated Mining & Smelting Co A 0 0 None None 0 0 None None None 100 Kiloton Bomb Imperial Refinery 1) Storage Facilities 2) Refining Facilities A B r i t i s h -American R e f i n e r y 1) Storag e F a c i l i t i e s 2) R e f i n i n g F a c i l i t i e s C o n s o l i d a t e d Mining Sc Smeltin g Co A 0 0 None None 0 0 None None None 000253 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a /'information TO? SECRET TiiBIE I I I - SUMMARY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POINTS CANADIAN ^ftYEft ONLY Aiming Point ir IN - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on Nighttime P o p u l a t i o n V i t a l Point V i t a l Point Category Structural Damage b y B l a s t (fo) Possibility of Fire Damage t o Contents With F i r e No F i r e 20 Kiloto n Boaib Imperial Refinery 1) Storage Facilities 2) Refining Facilities A B r i t i s h American Refinery 1) Storage Facilities 2) Refining Facilities A C o n s o l i d a t e d Mining &. Smelting Co 0 0 None None 0 0 None None None A 100 K i l o t o n Bor.i> I m p e r i a l Refinery 1) Storage Facilities 2) Refining Facilities A B r i t i s h American R e f i n e r y 1) S t o r a g e F a c i l i t i e s 2) R e f i n i n g F a c i l i t i e s A C o n s o l i d a t e d Mining & Sraelting Co A 0 0 None None 0 0 None :.Uone None 000254 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Docurnent divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET ~ C^-DIAN EYSS am TABIE I I I - -ftMiLxftlTf OF E ^ C T ON VIT...L P0L.T3 ' ,, Aiuing Point ;,- 2A1 - Chosen to Give Majdr.ium Effect on One Grouping of Vital Points bjr a 20 Ki.loton Bomb Vital Point Vital Point Category Imperial Refinery 1) Storage F a c i l i t i e s 2) Refining F a c i l i t i e s A British -merican Refinery 1) Storage F a c i l i t i e s A 2) Refining F a c i l i t i e s Consolidated Mining & Smelting Co A. Structural Damage by Blast (fo) Probability of Fire 100 0 High Med 100 High 0 Med 0 Low Damage to Contents „„____„ ^_ With Fire * No F i r e ' 50-75 0 Aiming Point ,,: 2A2. - Chosen to Give Maximiffl^Effe_ct on a Second Grouping of Vital Points hy JL_20 Kiloton B_orrib_ Imperial Refinery A 1) Storage Facilitie s 100 High 2) Refining F a c i l i t i e s 0 Med British American Refinery 1} Storage F a c i l i t i e s 2) Refining F a c i l i t i e s A Consolidated Mining & Smelting Co A .1(X> 0 75 - 100 None None High 100 75 - 100 000255 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a {'information TO? 3ECK2T ; TABLE H I - SOL; L ,EY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POLTS CftMiVIiJl EYES ONLY Aiming Point y 23 - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effec t on V i t a l P o i n t s by a 100 Kiloton Bomb Vital Point Vital Point Category Imperial Refinery 1) Storage F a c i l i t i e s 2) R e f i n i n g F a c i l i t i e s B r i t i s h American Refinery 1) S t o r a g e F a c i l i t i e s 2) R e f i n i n g F a c i l i t i e s A Consolidated Mining & Sraelting Co A Structural Damage by Blast (f>) Probability of Fire 100 100 High High 100 0 High Med 50% Approx High Damage t o C o n t e n t s With"Fire 75 - 100 No F i r e 50% Appros 000256 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY APPENDIX "A" - STUDY OF CITY OF CALGiRY For the City of Calgary the list of Vital Points as determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points is as follows: Category "A" Imperial Refinery British American Refinery Consolidated Mining and Smelting Co., (near Calgary) The categories determined by the Interdepartmental Committed on Vital Points are designed for sabotage studies. They have been adapted for the present study by raising those points which are important to the joint Canadian U.S. war effort from Category "A" to a superior Category "AA", and by restating the significance of the categories. The categories used are as follows: Category "AA" Individual plants or buildings of sufficient importance to the North American war effort to be considered possible atomic bomb targets, irrespective of any effects of an A-bomb attack on the target on other vital points. Additional effects will, however, play a part in determining the relative importance of Category "AA" targets and they have, therefore, been studied and reported. Category "A" Individual plants or buildings not of sufficient importance to the North American war effort to be considered •A-bomb targets by themselves, but which may become A-bomb targets if the other effects of the explosion of a bomb over the target would produce a sufficient cumulative effect on population and other vital points. Category "B" Important points to be considered in conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" and Category "A" targets. Category "C" Minor points to be considered in conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" and Category "A" targets. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDIM02641 Title A name given to the resource Report, "Atomic Vulnerability Study of Canada, The City of Calgary" Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 1953-03-11 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Nuclear Vulnerability Study, RG25, Vol. 4563, File 50041-A-40, Part 1, LAC. Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Department of External Affairs Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Early Cold War, Atomic Vulnerability Description An account of the resource Atomic Vulnerability Study Panel, Ottawa Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF Language A language of the resource en