https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/bdb052538a232003a9bbdc20a1c916ea.pdf f130a48707ccab35b1ea74904f4c8f58 PDF Text Text Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information , 23 *\ • JIBTS 200-2113-2 TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLT ATOMIC VUIHERABIHT5T STUDY OF CANADA THE CITY OF LONDON I Object of the Study This is one of a series of reports on major Canadian cities and targets which provide basic information on enemy capabilities to cause damage to persons and to vital points by atomic attack. This study is not concerned with the probability that such an enemy attack will be made. II Definitions of Terms Used Ground Zero - The point on the ground directly under the point of burst in the air Aiming Point - The point on the .ground directly under the point where the bomb is aimed to be burst in the air No Rescue - No organised and trained rescue is carried out, which means effectively that only people who are not trapped or who can escape by their own efforts survive Seriously Injured - Hospitalized persons who would not report to work for a considerable period of time Lightly Injured - First Aid case who would be able to contribute to their work a few days after the attack Nighttime - The time during which people are in their normal places of residence Daytime - The time during which people are at their normal places of work III Sources of Basio Information (a) Population Information on the nighttime distribution of population is based on a redistribution of the 1951 census returns in greater detail to show the population of individual city blocks. This is considered for the purpose of this study a sufficiently good approximation to the nighttime distribution of population. It has not been possible at this time to estimate the daytime distribution of population. 000289 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information J V • TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 2 (b) Military Establishments The military establishments important to the national war effort were selected by the Joint Planning Committee. The Establishments in the London area are listed in Appendix "AM. (c) Other Vital Points Information on other Vital Points was taken from the 1952 List of Vital Points, which is the work of the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points. The list for the London area is given in Appendix "A". (d) Scientific Data Basic data on the effects of atomic bomb explosions on people and structures was prepared by the Defence Research Board (Scientific Adviser to the Civil Defence Co-ordinator). IV Factors Considered in Selecting Aiming Points for Study The effects of an attack on a city vary widely with the location of the bomb burst. As it is not considered practicable to study all possible points of burst, a series of aiming points have been selected which would give the maximum effect on population and on different groupings of vital points. The effects of an attack vary widely with the energy released by the bomb. As it is not possible to estimate the energy level of the bomb most likely to be used, separate estimates were made for a bomb yielding the lowest probable energy and the highest probable energy level. The effects on people also vary widely with circumstances of warning and rescue. A series of estimates were therefore made for different conditions of warning and rescue. The estimates made for conditions WITH RESCUE are for ideal rescue conditions with organized and trained rescue teams, in temperate climates and when the atomic attack is unsupported by other weapons. In spite of rescue efforts casualties would tend towards those given for NO RESCUE under severe winter conditions, or if Chemical Warfare attack were combined with atomic attack or if the spread of fire were extensive. Conditions of visibility would also alter the effect of an attack. Poor visibility would reduce the extent of fire and the number of radiation casualties and would have some effect on the chances of pinpointing the target from the air. All calculations are based on an average clear day with a visibility of about six miles. For the city of London an Aiming Point was chosen to give the maximum effect on the nighttime distribution of population. Aiming Points were also chosen to give the maximura effect on vital points considered collectively for the lowest probable and the highest probable energy levels. 000290 t. �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information f :• . . " \ TOP SECRET CANADIAN EIES ONLY o. V Results pf the Study df .frhe-pi t y of London A nighttime attack on the nighttime population of London could r e s u l t i n casualties among UO - 6($ of the popul a t i o n f o r a 20 Kiloton bomb, depending on conditions of warning and rescue • and 55 - 85$ for a 100 Kiloton boirib j but would cause l i t t l e damage t o v i t a l p o i n t s . An a t t a ck on the V i t a l Points of London could cause t o t a l d e s t r u c t i o n t o these points and cause c a s u a l t i e s among 10 - 15$ of nighttime population for a 20 Kiloton bomb; and 25 - $C$ for a 100 Kiloton bomb. (a) Effects on Population The e f f e c t of an attac k on the nighttime population i s given i n Tables I and I I for each Aiming Point and for different conditions of warning and r e s c u e . (b) Effects on V i t a l Points A summary of the effect on V i t a l Points i s given i n Table H I for each Aiming Point. The extent of damage to v i t a l points and the effect on t h e i r various functions i s also described below for each of the Aiming Points . The r e l a t i v e importance of each v i t a l point to the Canadian - U.S. war e f f o r t i s indicated by the category (AA, A, B, or C), which i s given for each v i t a l point i n Appendix "A". A d e f i n i t i o n of each of the categories i s also given i n Appendix "A". (c) Effects of an Attack on Each of the Aiming Points Effect on Aiming Point #1 - Chosen t o give maximum effect on population by a 20 Kiloton Bomb A nighttime a t t a c k on t h i s Aiming Point could cause c a s u a l t i e s among lj.0 - 60$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and I I ) . As daytime population data i s not a t present available i t i s not possible to calculate c a s u a l t i e s from a daytime a t t a c k . Damage t o V i t a l Points i s described below: Militar y Establishments # 2 7 Central Ordnance and spare p a r t s ) Only s u p e r f i c i a l b l a s t and stores serious damage. Depot - ( l a r g e l y mechanical t r a n s p o r t - The p o s s i b i l i t y of f i r e i s small. building damage would be caused by would probably receive l i t t l e or no Railroad and Rolling Stock Equipment General Motors Diesel Limited - Buildings and equipment would receive no damage other than s u p e r f i c i a l . 000291 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information y > x J s TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 4 Effect on Aiming Point #1 - Chosen to give maximum effect on population by a 100 Kiloton Bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point could cause casualties among 55 - 85$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population data is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Military Establishment #27 Central Ordnance Depot - No structural blast damage would be caused by this attack, but there is a possibility that fire would occur. Stores would receive little serious damage if there were no fire. Railroad and Rolling Stock Equipment General Motors Diesel Limited - This plant is situated beyond the limit of structural blast damage. As the possibility of fire is small little or no serious damage to equipment would be expected. Effect on Aiming Point #2A - Chosen to give maximum effect on Vital Points by a 20 Kiloton Bomb A nighttime attack on this Aiming Point could result in casualties among 10 - 15$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population data is not at present available it is not possible to calculate casualties from a daytime attack except for those specific points for which information is given below. Damage to Vital Points is described below: Military Establishments #27 Central Ordnance Depot - This building would receive severe structural damage by blast, and fire is likely to occur. Salvage of stores would be small. Approximately 15 - 25$ of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Railroad and Rolling Stock Equipment General Motors Diesel Limited - These buildings would receive severe structural damage by blast and fire and would have to be torn down. Some heavy equipment would withstand severe blast damage, but would likely be severely dajnaged by fire. . Approximately 60 - 70$ of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. 000292 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information J * * N TOP. SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY - 5 ^ Effect on Aiming Point #2B - Chosen to give maximum effect on Vital Points by a 100 Kiloton Bomb A nighttime attack Oh this Aiming Point would result in casualties among 25 - 50$ of the population depending on conditions of warning and rescue (Tables I and II). As daytime population data.is not at preseht available it is not possible to calculate casualties fitom a daytime attack except for those specific points for which information is given below. Damage1 to Viial Points is described below*. Military Establishments #27 Central Ordnance Depot - Building and stores Would be totally destroyed by a combination of blast and fire. Approximately 95 - 100$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. Railroad and Rolling Stock Equipment General Motors Diesel Limited - These buildings would receive severe structural damage by blast and fire and would have to be torn down. Some heavy equipment would withstand severe blast damage, but would likely be severely damaged by fire. Approximately 15 - 30$ of shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured. (d) Effects on Morale It is expected that the effect on morale in large centres of population in Canada, and at least the northern parts of the United States, would be much the same whichever city is attacked by an atomic bomb. The effect will probably be somewhat proportionate to the size of the casualties inflicted by individual bombs and by the number of cities attacked, VI Air Navigation Aspects of an Attack With the equipment at present available to the Russian Long Range Air Force, London would be one of the more difficult cities to locate, except in good visibility, owing to the few distinctive topographical features in the target area. Accuracy in identifying specific aiming points in London is a critical aspect. The vital points in London are so situated that the Aiming Point giving maximum damage to all vital points considered collectively is small, and the effect on vital points considered collectively would fall off rapidly as the distance of Ground Zero from the chosen Aiming Points is increased. This is particularly evident if the lowest probable energy level bomb is used and is true for population as well as for vital points. 000293 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Aa Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET TABLE I - CASUALTY ESTIMATES - CITY OF LONDON CANADIAN EYES ONLY' NIGHTTIME ATTACK s 100 K i l o t o n Bomb 20 K i l o t o n Bomb Aiming P o i n t # 1 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n Aiming Point # 1 - Chosen to Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n Killed Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 71,300 11,000 5,100 11,400 No Warning - With Rescue 43,900 23,300 10,000 10,000 With Warning - With Rescue 34,200 15,500 8,200 Killed Seriously Injured No Warning - No Rescue 38,800 12,400 8,300 No Warning - With Rescue 20,900 18,900 With Warning - With Rescue 15,600 13,400 Lightly Injured Aiming P o i n t #2A - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s f o r a 20 K i l o t o n Bomb No Warning - No Rescue 6,700 3,900 3,300 No Warning - With Rescue 2,800 4,800 3,900 With Warning - With Rescue 2,300 3,100 2,500 J lightly Injured Aiming P o i n t #2B - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s f o r a 100 .Kiloton Bomb No Warning - No Rescue 32,300 11,600 8,200 No Warning - With Rescue 15,900 17,400 10,900 Vftth Warning - With Rescue 11,400 10,800 6,800 000294 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en.vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TABLE II - CASUALTIES AS PERCENTAGE OF POFJIATIGN TOP SECRET s CtfANtfADIAN EYES ONLY NIGHTTIME .ATTACK X 100 K i l o t o n 20 K i l o t o n Aiming Point Chosen to Airaing Point Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n Give Maximum Effect on Population Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured No Warning - No Rescue 40 10 10 No Warning - No Rescue 70 10 5 No Warning - With Rescue 20 20 10 No Warning - With Rescue 40 20 10 With Warning - With Resoue 15 15 10 With Warning - With Rescue 30 15 10 Aiming P o i n t #2A - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s - 20 K i l o t o n Bomb No Warning - No Rescue 5 5 < 5 No Warning - With Rescue < 5 5 5 With Warning - With Rescue < 5 <5 4 <5 Based on 1 0 3 , 0 0 0 , w i t h i n 5 m i l e s cf t h e aiming p o i n t . Aiming P o i n t #2B - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on V i t a l P o i n t s - 100 K i l o t o n Bomb No Warning - No Rescue 30 10 10 No Warning - With Rescue 15 15 10 W i t h Warning - With Rescue 10 10 5 The p o p u l a t i o n of t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a i s 121,500 of t h e c i t y p r o p e r i s 95,300 000295 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en.vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information X TOP SECRET TABLE I I I - .SUMMARY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POINTS CANADIAN EYES ONLY -Aiming P o i n t # 1 - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on P o p u l a t i o n V i t a l Point V i t a l Point Category Stiuctural Damage by B l a s t (f>) Probability of E i r e Damage t o C o n t e n t s With E i r e No Fire 20 K i l o t o n Bomb C e n t r a l Ordnance Depot A 0 Low 50-75 0-25 General Motors D i e s e l L t d , C 0 None — 0 100 K i l o t o n Bomb C e n t r a l Ordnanje Depot A 0 Medium 75 - 100 0-25 General Motors Diese l L t d . C 0 Low 50$ 0-25 000296 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue e'h vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information " CANADIAN EYES ONLY "*v Aiming P o i n t s #2A & #2B - Chosen t o Give Maximum Effect on V i t a l P o i n t s V i t a l Point Category Structural Damage by B l a s t ($) - TOP SECRET TABLE III - SUMMARY OF EFFECT ON VITAL POINTS V i t a l Point v X, -"< Probability of F i r e Damage t o C o n t e n t s With F i r e No F i r e .Aiming P o i n t #2A - Chosen t o Give Mazimum E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s by a 20 K i l o t o n Bomb C e n t r a l Ordnance Depot A 25 - 50$ High 75 - 100$ 50$ approx. General Motors D i e s e l L t d . C 75 - 100$ High 75 - 100$ 50$ a p p r o x . Aiming P o i n t #2B - Chosen t o Give Maximum E f f e c t on V i t a l P o i n t s b y a 100 IClloton Bomb C e n t r a l Ordnance Depot A. G e n e r a l Motors D i e s e l L t d . C 100$ 75 - 100$ High 100$ Higi 75 - 100$ 100$ 50$ approx. 000297 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information x \ TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY APPENDIX "A" - STUDY OF CITY OF LONDON For the City of London the l i s t of V i t a l Points as determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on V i t a l Points i s as follows: Category "A" Central Ordnance Depot Category "C" General Motors Diesel Limited The categories determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on V i t a l Points are designed for sabotage s t u d i e s . They have been adapted for the present study by r a i s i n g those points which are important to the j o i n t Canadian U.S. war e f f o r t from Category "A" to a superior Category "AA", and by r e s t a t i n g the significance of the c a t e g o r i e s . The categories used are as follows: Category "AA" Individual plants or buildings of s u f f i c i e n t importance t o the North American war e f f o r t to be considered possible atomic bomb t a r g e t s , i r r e s p e c t i ve of any effects of an A-bomb attack on the t a r g e t on other v i t a l p o i n t s . Additional effects w i l l , however, play a part i n determining the r e l a t i v e importance of Category "AA" t a r g e t s and they have, therefore , been studied and reported. Category "A" Individual plants or buildings not of s u f f i c i e n t importance to the North American war e f f o r t to be considered A-boitib target s by themselves, but which may become A-bomb t a r g e t s i f the other effects of the explosion of a .bomb overthe t a r g e t would produce a s u f f i c i e n t cumulative e f f e c t on population and other v i t a l p o i n t s . Category "B" Important points t o be considered i n conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" and Category "A" t a r g e t s , Category "C" Minor points to be considered i n conjunction with attacks on Category "AA" and Category "A" t a r g e t s . 000298 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDIM02635 Title A name given to the resource Report, "Atomic Vulnerability Study of Canada, The City of London" Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 1953-01-14 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Nuclear Vulnerability Study, RG25, Vol. 4563, File 50041-A-40, Part 1, LAC. Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Department of External Affairs Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Early Cold War, Atomic Vulnerability Description An account of the resource Atomic Vulnerability Study Panel, Ottawa Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF Language A language of the resource en