https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/8774e57313e29e8ae0fa9d02cef63d9a.pdf 37d6f8aca4e9550cdb570573c201707f PDF Text Text Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a /'information TOP SECRET (ialX/ CANADIAN EYES ONLY ATOMIC VULNERABILITY STUDY OF CANADA THE CITY OF OTTAWA w I $ml Ob.ject of the Study This is one of a series of reports on major Canadian cities and targets which provide the basic information on enemy capabilities to cause damage to persons and to vital points by atomic attack. This study is not concerned with the probability that such an enemy attack will be made. II Definitions of Terms Used Ground Zero The, point on the ground directly un' er the point of burst in the air Aiming Point The point on the ground directly under the point where the bomb is aimed to be burst in the air No Rescue No organised and trained rescue is carried out, which means effectively that only people who are not trapped or who can escape by their own efforts survive Seriously In.iured - Hospitalized persons who would not report to work for a considerable period of time Lightly In.iured III First Aid case who would be able to contribute to their work a few days after the attack Nighttime - The time during which people are in their normal places of residence Daytime - The time during which people are at their normal places of work Sources of Basic Information. (a) Population Information on the distribution of daytime and nighttime population in Ottawa was obtained from the National Capital Planning Service of the Department of Public Works. (b) Military Establishments The military establishments important to the national war effort were selected by the Joint Planning Committee, The establishments in the Ottawa area are listed in Appendix "A". .../2 000391 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET -2CANADIAN EYES ONLY (c) Other Vital Points Information on other Vital Points such as centres of government, factories, and points on transportation and communications systems was taken from the 1952 List of Vital Points, which is the work of the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points. The list for the Ottawa area is given in Appendix "A".• (d) Scientific Data Basic data on the effects of atomic bomb explosions on people and structures was prepared by the Defence Research Board (Scientific Adviser to the Civil Defence Co-ordinator), based on unclassified reports of the Strategic Bombing Surveys of the atomic bomb explosions at Nagasaki and Hiroshima, and on classified and unclassified reports of the United Kingdom Home Office. Results of the Study of the City of Ottawa The principle' way in which an atomic bomb attack on Ottawa would affect the Canadian economy and war potential would be through the disruption of the activities of the Government of Canada, caused by the heavy casualties and destruction of departmental records. An aiming point was therefore determined which would give the maximum effect on population both by day and by night, and another aiming point which would give the maximum effect on government buildings and their contents and occupants. The effects vary widely with the energy released by the bomb. As it is not possible to estimate the energy level of the bomb most likely to be used, separate estimates were made for a bomb with the lowest probable energy and the higheet probable energy level. The effects on people also vary widely with the circumstances of warning and rescue. A series of estimates were therefore made for different conditions of warning and rescue. (a) Effects on Population The results of the study are presented in terms of numbers of casualties and of percentages of the total population of Ottawa in Tables I and II. The estimates made for conditions WITH RESCUE are for ideal rescue conditions with organised and trained rescue teams, in temperate climates and when the atomic attack is unsupported by other weapons. In spite of rescue efforts casualties would tend towards those given for NO RESCUE under severe winter conditions, or if Chemical Warfare attack were combined with atomic attack or if the spread of fire was extensive. (b) Effects on Government Buildings and their Occupants For an attack on the aiming point which would give the maximum effect on government the damage to the contents of buildings and the casualties among their Occupants is summarised in Table III. More detailed information on the effect on individual buildings is available if required. �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET -3- CANADIAN EYES ONLY The effect on the government's direction of the Canadian war effort of such a daytime attack with even the smallest atomic bomb envisaged would be at least disastrous. In addition to the loss of records a daytiine attack would eliminate the.majority of experienced government workers. A nighttime attack, while not a selective attack on government employees, would still, by killing a high percentage of the total population of Ottawa, kill 6r incapacitate a significant proportion of government employees. (c) Effects' on Military ''Establishments f '' The effect Of a dayti*1® attack on the aiming point which would give the maximum effect On government, with even the smallest atomic bomb envisaged^ tould be disastrous, and of a nighttime attack only slightly less disastrous to the functioning of National Defence Headquarters. Pamaglto Contents of Buildings ahd Percentage of theifr Occupants Killed or Seriously Injured in a Daytime...At tack 20 Kiloton Bomb No Waitairig No Resciie National Defence Buildings A, B, C. Personnel effect With Warning With Rescue Contents Completely Destroyed 95$ 6056 Air Material Command as contained in No. Contents Seriously Damaged 8 Building Personnel effect 55$ 15$ Central Medical Stores Personnel effect Contents Moderately Damaged 25$ 100 Kiloton Bomb No W&rnihg No Rescue With Warning With Rescue Contents Completely Destroyed 95$ 85$ Contents Completely Destroyed 95$ 65$ Contents Completely Destroyed 65$ 45$ (d) Effects on Other Vital Points The most important other effect would be on the main telephone exchange of the Bell Telephone Company and the Federal Government Telephone Exchange, both at O'Connor Street. For an attack on the aiming point which gives the maximum effect on vital points the effect on the contents of the building would be serious for a 20 kiloton bomb and complete destruction for a 100 kiloton bomb. 95 to 100$ of the shift on duty would be killed or seriously injured in either case, even with rescue. (e) Effects on Morale It is expected that the effect on morale in large centres of population in Canada, and at least the northern parts of the United States, would be much the same whichever city is attacked by an atomic bomb. The effect will probably be somewhat proportionate to the size of the casualties inflicted by individual bombs and by the number of cities attacked. ...A 000393 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information -h- TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY In the case of an attack on Ottawa, as part of a series of attacks on cities, there would be an additional effect throughout the country if the attack resulted in the death or incapacity of those persons in the central government whose leadership and guidance will be one of the principal defences of our national morale in any such emergency, (f) Navigation Aspects of an Attack With the equipment -at present available to the Russian Long Range Air Force, Ottawa would not be a difficult target to locate under any weather conditions for a well trained navigator not familiar with the area. Accuracy in identifying specific aiming points and in delivering an atomic bomb on the target are not limiting factors for an attack on Ottawa as the population and vital points are so concentrated and so many of the government buildings afford such poor protection to contents and occupants that there is a large area within which an atomic explosion would have effects only slightly less than those achieved for the optimum aiming point. Allweather and nighttime attacks are therefore within enemy capabilities. �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET TABLE I - CASUALTY ESTIMATES - CITY OF OTTAWA 20 Kiloton Bomb 100 Kiloton Bomb Aiming Point #1 - Chosen to Give Maximum Population Effect KO WARNING - NO RESCUE Killed Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack 99,100 77', 000 Seriously In.iured 23,000 22,100 Aiming Point #1 - Chosen To Give Maximum Population Effect Lightly Injured 14,300 14,300 NO WARNING - WITH RESCUE Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack 71,000 39,600 34,900 36,700 19,400 20,900 59,000 27,900 27,300 26,900 19,300 19,600 NO WARNING - NO RESCUE 80,400 73,900 23,600 20,700 18,400 14,900 Daytime A t t a c k N i g h t t i m e A t t a ck 105,000 82,900 40,400 43,200 18,100 17,500 Daytime A t t a c k Nighttime Attack 88,600 64,500 30,600 30,400 17,300 16,400 Aiming Point #2B - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Vital Points Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack 117,500 124,400 23,000 19,700 16,000 10,000 Daytime Attack 78,500 Nighttime Attack 78,500 39,900 40,400 23,700 19,500 25,400 26,100 18,200 14,200 NO WARNING - WITH RESCUE 51,500 40,000 34,700 31,600 23,500 20,700 42,800 31,800 23,800 22,200 20,100 16,700 WITH WARNING - WITH RESCUE Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack 144,000 131,800 Lightly Injured 11,200 9,800 NO WARNING - NO RESCUE KO WARNING - WITH RESCUE Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack Seriously Injured 22,000 20,100 WITH WARNING - WITH RESCUE Aiming Point #2A - Chosen to Give Maximum Effect on Vital Points Daytime .Attack Nighttime A t t a c k Killed NO WARNING - WITH RESCUE WITH WARNING - WITH RESCUE Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack NO WARNING - NO -RESCUE WITH WARNING - WITH RESCUE Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack 6i+,400 62,700 000395 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information 5-OP SECRET TABLE I I - CASUALTIES AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION A Aiming Point Chosen t o Give Maxiraum E f f e ct on Population 20 KILOTON BOMB No Warning - No Rescue Killed Lightly Injured Killed Seriously Injured Lightly Injured Daytime Attack 40% 10% 5% 60% 10% 5% Nighttime Attack 30% 10S5 5fo 55% 10% 5% Daytime Attack 30% 15% 10% 40% 15% 5% .Nighttime Attack 15% 15fo 10% 35% 15% 5% 10% 10% 35% 10% 10% 10% 25% 10% No Warning V/ith Warning - With Rescue - With Rescue Daytime Attack Nighttime Attack & Seriously Injured 100 KILOTON BOMB 10% jo Based on 1949 Population for Metropolitan Area of Ottawa approximately 250,000. 000396 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP. SECRET TABLE I I I - EFFECT OF ATTACK ON SELECTED GOVEIM'IENT BUILDINCTS AND OCCUPANTS & 100 K i l o t o n Bomb 20 K i l o t o n Bomb v Number of Buildings T o t a l Number of Occupants Occupants K i l l e d or S e r i o u s l y Injured With Warning No Warning With Rescue No Rescue Number of Buildings T o t a l Number of Occupants Occupants K i l l e d or S e r i o u s l y Injured No Warning With Warning No Rescue With Rescue Contents of Building Completely Destroyed . 3,390 100% 95% 13 11,465 Serious Damage to Contents 8 8.070 70% 50% — — Moderate Damage t o Contents 835 / 5% £5% 1 835 10% 300 10% 10% S l i g h t Damage t o C o n t e n ts — 1 No Damage t o Cont ent s 825 / 1% / 1% 1 520 L / 5% T o t a l s and O v e r a ll P e r c e n t a g e s 16 13,120 70% 55% & Based on t h e 16 B u i l d i n g s l i s t e d a s V i t a l P o i n t s . B u i l d i n g s and Occupants a s l o c a t e d May 1952,, 16 13,120 75% 000397 �Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information TOP SECRET CANADIAN EYES ONLY APPENDIX "A" - REPORT ON CITY OF OTTAWA For the City of Ottawa the list of vital points as determined by the Interdepartmental Committee on Vital Points is as follows: MILITARY ESTABLISHMENTS: National Defence Buildings "A", "B", "C" and Joint Tape Relay Centre Central Medical Stores OTHER VITAL POINTS: Centre Block East Block Confederation Building Justice Building Temporary Buildings 1, 2, 3, 4> 5, 6, 8. Hunter Building National Research Council Laboratory, Sussex Street National Research Council Communications LaboratoryNational Research Council, Montreal Road Laboratory Bureau of Mines Laboratory Instruments Limited Federal Government Telephone Exchange Bell Telephone, Main Telephone Exchanges 000398 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDIM02625 Title A name given to the resource Report, "Atomic Vulnerability Study of Canada, The City of Ottawa" Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 1952-09-09 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Nuclear Vulnerability Study, RG25, Vol. 4563, File 50041-A-40, Part 1, LAC. Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Department of External Affairs Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Early Cold War, Atomic Vulnerability Description An account of the resource Ottawa Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF Language A language of the resource en