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                  <text>Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information

TOP SECRET

D R A F T

TO? SECRET
•I,

The Secretary
Chiefs of Staff Committee

t\ fcM

Revision of ABC Intelligence
1

All three of the participating Intelligence

organizations which produced an appreciation of Soviet
capabilities and intentions entitled ABCI 15, of 27 Sep
49, are of the opinion that Part II of this paper Is inadequate for long range planning*

It ls further agreed

that reconsideration of both the critical date, and of
enemy strategic intentions must be undertaken*

In addition,

the Director of the Joint Intelligence Group of the United
States Joint Staff informed both the British and Canadian
delegations that there would be no further tripartite
discussions, although agreement on the need for revising
Part II presupposes Canadian participation in bipartite
Intelligence discussions*
2

In view of the above it is important that the

JIC should develop a programme encompassing the revision
of Part II of ABCI 15 as an urgent national Intelligence
requirement to ensure that Canadian Planners are provided
with an adequate Intelligence appreciation for long range
planning, and, that Canadian Intelligence will be able to
play a full part in any future international discussions
by tabling its own appreciation* .
3

S*\.

Such a programme w p ^ include a minimum of t^ree

^"k

..

. ,.

studies, sane" of which may be carried on simultaneously*
They may be defined generally as followss
(a) "A determination of targets in Canada
#iich the Soviet leaders may consider
suitable for atomic attack and an estimation of the effect which the elimination
of these targets by atomic bombs would
have on the ability of Canada to wage war"
(See Appendix A)

000434

�Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act vulgue en
vertu de la Loi sur I'acces a I'information
DoccumanLdi
umanLdivulgue
ern/ejtu

TOP.:S£Ci
2

(b)

TOP SECRET

A determination of t h e d a t e by which the
Soviet leaders may consider themselves to

j

be i n a p o s i t i o n t o f u l f i l l t h e i r aimfctof

Il

orrfrnfiM nhi n{r world. CoTnnmnirgffi by war*
(c)

An assessment of t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s and
i n t e n t i o n s of the Soviet Union i n (the
date evolved i n (b) above)*

Recognizing t h a t although P a r t I of ABCI 15 i s
subject t o r e v i s i o n , i t i s considered i n general to be
adequate for emergency planning*
immediate revision*

However, Part I I r e q i i r e n

The JIC therefore considers t h a t any

contemplated r e v i s i o n of Part I should be deferred u n t i l
Part I I i s completed*
5

In view of the considerations presented i n the

foregoing, the JIC proposes to take a c t i o n along the l i n e s
indicate d i n paragraph 3 above, subject to approval by
the Ghiefs of Staff Committee*

000435

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              <text>Nuclear Vulnerability Study, RG25, Vol. 4563, File 50041-A-40, Part 1, LAC.</text>
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