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                  <text>,C.E. PEJ ..F~SON

1.

was, until

a few months ago, assumed to begin in late

and 1954 was the date set for the achievement
The reason for selecting
unlikely

to possess

Thus the basic

this

date was that

an adequate

It may be that

Union about three
false

one, and that

have a large
gravely

the estimate

that

years longer to build

in

would deter the

it would take the Soviet

up its

atomic armament was a

the Soviet Union may now, or in the near future,

enough stock of bombs to feel

the other hand, Soviet fears

of their

capacity

and other Western countries.

in their

capacity

atomic weapons; we know that

have been working energetically

On

may have declined,

capable of destroying

and they also may have a new confidence
bombers carrying

confident

of atomic warfare

atomic bomb may not be considered

authorities

delivery

then.

so long as it lasted.

to damage the United States

strategic

the Soviet Union was

the great U.S. superiority

atomic weapons and in the means for their

2.

of the medium-term plan.

stock of atomic weapons until

assumption was that

Soviet Union from open warfare

1953 or 1954,

on their

Soviet

the

strength,

to intercept
the Soviet

radar network

and other measures of air defence.
Whatever the causes,
period
military

of maximum danger,

we must now advance our estimate

expand our targets

manpower, and increase

of the

in defence production

our capabiHties

and

to engage in war,
000383

�Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur /'acces ii /'information

...
- 2 -

without

counting

on any period

the imminent possibility

at all

danger has already
undertaken

begun.

is that

the period

The new defence efforts

by the United States

and certainly

men and equipment tied
of 1951 that

down in Korea.

of available

By that

since

actually

to compensate for the

It will not be before

enlargement

and equipment will be achieved.
should be stronger

which have been

in the defences

not enough increase

a substantial

of greatest

and many other Western cotmtries

June have not yet brought about much increase
in readiness,

be free from

of war.

The only safe assumption

4.

in which we shall

forces

the middle
in being

time the democratic

countries

in the West than they would have been if there

been no Korean war, even if considerable

forces

are still

tied

had

down in

the Far East.
The Russians
relatively

may, therefore,

in a better

position

hence or thereafter.

supports

German forces

the view that

they could use or refrain

is still
great

War is,

the behaviour

popular

be six months
towards

of Western Europe
a casus belli

appeal among the satellites,

which
and which

from using at thelr_discretion.

of course,

not inevitable.

for the We$tern countries
economic superiority

they are now

of the Russians

in the defences

they may be manufacturing

would have considerable

6.

for war than they will

Furthermore,

the plans to include

have decided that

and their

The greatest

to meet the threat
resources

deterrent

by employing their

of skilled

manpower in
000384

�r

Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur /'acces ii /'information

- 3 -

such a way that
them.

the prospect

This has been their

Atlantic

is slender
purpose,

Treaty came into effect,

at any rate

than in the other North Atlantic
hearted

associates,

and especially

countries.

recrimination

with the United States,

is based and on the general

peoples

for greater

efforts

have

in the United States
stout-

are to get on with

between friendly

agreement

governments concerned on the assumptions
planning

since the North

If they and their

such as Turkey and Australia,

the job and avoid unpleasant

over

danger.

The sense of acute urgency is greater

7.

victory

but the accomplishments

not matched the surge of increased

their

of eventual

is essential

on which their

countries,
by the

defence

grounds on which to appeal to

and sacrifices.

000386

�Document disclosed under the Access to Information Act - 1
Dgc~me?rdiv~lgue en vertu de la Loi sur /'acces a /'information

Copy

ot 23 copies.

1

N0°

THE CANJ\DI AN f\MB!;_SS,~DOR
TO THE UNITED ST !,T:~S

Candel

No o' 99 o

New York

Follo~ing;

for

V!r•., Reio

a.nd Nr·o Pear$on,

Begins:

Your mess.ages EX-2592

2593 reached

me just

·a note

I had completed·

draft

on t:he name general

product

- wh:lle- 1t takes

di:f'f'erento
that

~nd · covers

is briefer
the

less

sa.me gem?.ral

ground

line,

the

.tt ls very important

of war

emphasis

My

o

and

tha.n yours,

0

It was prompted psrt:1.cu~arly

as your

subject

memo.randum for the C;:1.t,inet on the danger

after

is somewhat

by my impression

that- the Governments whi~h can make
1

;;,

matern11

a substantial.

Soviet

Union should seek to reach agreement

atta.ched
are

to defence

ccntl'•ibut.1.on

to their

now atta.ching

effort,

a.nd that

a lower

degree

'The memorandum reads

Stateso
lo

In North

Atlnnti.c

most,

o.n the· urgency to be
not all

of urgency

as follow3.
pla_rlning

1953 or 1954, and 195~ was the ~~te

than

pl?-.U'io.

The reason

of atomic

weapons until

·theric

the great

United

superiority

me.ans for

open warf~re
2 ..

'rt&gt; , I

;;.i,•

7(

j

:;

)

It

of them

the Uni~ed

Text_ beg:1.ns:

the ·pex·iod of greatest

s~t

for

ro~ the achieve~ent

~el.ec-ting

tha.t the- S-.cv1et Union was u,~111&lt;:ely to ponsess

the

the

a few months ago, assumeu to begin _in late

danger was, until

t'he medium-te:rm

if

against

States

t.hetr

&lt;tielivery

so long as it
may be that

Tnus the bns1e

in atomic

woulf.1 deter

this·

date

an adequaJe
assumption

er
wa.a
stock

·

~m.s that,

weapons and in

tM -sou:tet

U111ionfrom

lasted.

the estimate

that

it

would take

th~

000402

j

.!

�.
der the Access to Information Act Document_ d1sclo:ed un
d I Loi sur /'acces a /'informatio
Document d1vulgue en vertu

r
- 2 -

Union about

Soviet

hav.e a le.rge

or in the nea.r future,

confident

United States

atomic

of their

and other

hand, Soviet

fears

to build

up its

enough etoek

capacity

of borr&amp;bs

to damage thV2

gravely

weste~n qountries~

-On the other

may have declined.

of atomic warfare

bomb ma.!r not be considered

capa.ble

-

ca.nae 1 ty to intercept

we knoN that

the Sovtet

energetically
.

on- their

.

.

Soviet

in their

'

s trateg:t_e

th~

oi.' destroying

s_nd they .also may have a new confldence

strength,

atoml&lt;;

one, and tha.t the sov:tet Union may now,

armament was a false

to feel

~rears longer

three

bomber~ carrying

atomic

weapons;

have been working

a.uth.orities

ra.dn.r nett1orl: and otner

mea.sures

of air

defence.,

3.,

of the.period

production

of rn;:;v:imwndnntrer,

all

mtn:ta:r:r

and

eapab1Jlities
at

the eauses.11 we must

Whatever·

to engage

in which

we shall

.u

our estin1ate

advance

expa.nd_ou~targets

manpower,
in war

t'lOW
'

a.nd increase

wi thou.t

be free

eountln.g

from. the

in det·enee

our
on any period

lmm.1JDtmt possibility

of war.
The only· safe

1~0

greatest

a.s;':um:,?tion

danger has already

1s that

beguno

the

peziioo

The new defence

of

ef'fort3

have been undertakefll,b.y

the United States

an;n. many other

western

June 'have not yet

br~ugilt.

countries

sine.a

about

which

much

.. ·.

inerease

in the· defene.ee

not ~nougl'i increase
df.?Wnin Kot•ea.

that

n substantial
I

coun.tries
been if

foreeS

should
there

It will

be strcmger

ha,d been

a.re still

tied

for~es-i~

ln the west

than

no Korea.n war, . even· if
dOW!'rl

of 1951
being

time the democratic.

By that

they would have
coaniderable

in the Far East.

The .Russian3 may,, therefore,
a:re now rela.tively

tl1e middle

~f available

be ·8.chteved.

,. ·and ce:rta inly-

the men ,ind equipment

not be before

~nlargem~nt

and eemipment will

in readi!'ll~ss

to com:peru:iate fitr

'.

tied

actua,lly

'in a bet;er

posi tiC®

ha-ve decided·that
for war than

they

they will

000403
I

�Document disclosed under the Access to tnf?r~a~'.on Act -.
Document divulgue en vertu de la Loi sur /'acces a I ,nformatton

.

'

'

-

..

·-:,

.)

-

'1

be six months hence or thereafter.
of the Russians

the _defences

towards

of Western

be mimufacturing

popular

appeal

or refrain
6~

of skilled

at any rat;e

7.,

victory
since·

!l.ustra.lian·

recrimination

J

The greatest

countries

to meet the

superiority

economic

over them.

the

acute

of

in the other

stout-hearted
are

North

and their

the prospect

This has been their

Atlantic

Treaty

c-~

into

have not matched the surge

between

North

friendly

agreement

and on the gener2l

efforts

countries"

such

If

as Turkey

Job and avoid

countries,
is ess.ential

~n which their

grounds

in the United

is greater

1\tlantic

on with. the

on the assum1tions

peo~Jles f'or greater

urgency

associates,

to get

the Un:l_ted Staten»

concerned

they may

.1anger.

The. sense

than

and their

based

great

.bu"t the accomplishments

of increased·

States

not inevitable.

manpower ln such a way that

is s~ender of eventual

effect,

the view that

.in

and which they could use

for the western
their

German forces

discretiono

of course.,

by employing

the behaviour

which would. have .considerabl.:)

among the· satellites,

·war is~

resources

to include

Europe supports

a ca::ms. belll

is still

purpose,_

plans

frorn using at their

deterrent
threa.t

the

Furthermore,

•

unpleasant

with

Governments

defence

plartnin~

on which 'to appeal

to their

and sacrlfices.o

.

and

and especially
by the

they

is

Text ends.

C I\NADIAN AMBP,SSll.DOH

000404

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