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\
J.J.
•_)_
1
'.) \
FMMOSCOW
SEf,:16/62 SECRET
1U EXTERNAL
673 OPIMMED
INFO TT LDNCPMANDMINISTER)NATOPARIS
OPIMMED
BONNBRU HAGUEROME
WltSHDCPERMISNY EMBPARIS
PRIOR!TY FM OTT
TT DM/DND CCOS OTT FM OTT
PCO OTT FM OTT
.E~G BGRAD WARSAWOSLO VIENNAPRAGUEFM LON
~G BERLIN FM BONN
REF MYTEL672 SEP15
GERMANY
AND BERLIN
HEREWITHCOMMENTSON KHRUSHCHEVS
BERLIN PLANAS DISCLOSED IN HIS
CONVERSATION
WITH KROLL
REPORTED IN
MY
REFTEL.
2.KHRUSHCHEV
REALLYSEEMSDETERMINED,UNLESS
OF COURSEHE GETS HIS
~y
EARLIERBY WESTERN
CONCESSIONS,TO
BRING WORLD
TO VERYBRINK
OF THERMONUCLEAR
WARIN ORDERTO FORCEWESTERN
ABANDONMENTOF OUR
PLEDGEON BERLINERS SECURITY.THOMPSONWAS LONGCONVINCED THAT
KHRUSHCHEV
WASIN FACT SO DETERMINED
TO GO RIGHT UP TO BRINK.
KHRUSHCHEVS
STATEDPLAN IS CONSISTENTIN TIMING ANDCONTENTWITH
OTHERRECENT INDlCATIONSCEG
TO THOMPSON,U
THANT_,UDALL
AND IN SEPl 1
TASS DECI..ARATION)oDETAILS ARE MORE PRECISE AND MAY BE
DESIGNEDTO
MISLEADUS OR BE SUBJECTTO FLEXIBLECHANGES.ITIS FOR EXAMPLE
Sf ILL
P!)SSIBLE THAT.KHRUSHCHEVMIGHTTAKEBERLIN QUESTIONTO UN
BEFORERATHERTHANAFTER SIGNING PEACETREATYANDBLOCKINGACCESS.
1-0WEVER.
~ALCULATION
THATUN TENDENCY
IS NORMALLY
TO URGEPEACEFUL
ACQUIESCENCE
STRENGTHENS
PLAUSIBILITYOF KHRUSHCHEVS
DECLARED
PLAN
TO CREATEFAIT ACCOMPLI,AND
THENGO NOT RPT NOT TO UNGABUT TO
~CUHITY COUNCILWHEREHE HAS A VETO.FACTTHATKHRUSHCHEV
MADENO
CRPTNO MENTIONTO KROLLOF INTENTIONTO HOLDPEACECONFERENCE
OR
ATTEMPT
TO GET SOMENEUTRALS
TO SIGN MAYALSOBE RELEVANT.INTHESE
CIRCUMSTANCES
IT MIGHTBE DIFFICULT EVEN IF WETHOUGHT
IT PROFIT·
ASLE AFTERFAIT ACCO:i!PLIFOR WESTTO TRY TO TAKEMATTERTO
BEST AVAILABLE COPY
000142
�PAGE TWO 673
ASSEMBLY UNDER U~ITING
FOR PEACE PROCEDURES.
DANGER POINT LIES
3.CRUCIAL
I~ KHRUSHCHEVS APPARENTLY GENUINE
CONVICTION THAT IN LAST ANALYSIS
KE:~NEDY AND WEST wILL
SACK DOWN
'
AND ACQUIESCE IN SOME FACE-SAVING
FORMULA FOR RETRE~T~I
E:CONCJfrJY
SENDING BY DEFERRED MSG VIA
NEXT SEA PLANE ANALYSIS
PROBABLE. FACTORS CONTF'.181.IT
U-.G TO THIS
WELL SEEM PERSUASIVE.
CONCLUSION FROM THEM 15 IN PART
AT LEA.ST SHARED BY FRE.NCH GOVT,~JANY KEY GERMANS INCLUDING
AND I
~DERSTAND
4.NEVERTHELESS
MANY GLOOMY MZ~BEHS OF USACMISSION7HN
I NOT RPT NOT ONLY HOPE BUT BELIEVE
IS GRAVELY
MISTAKENIN
THIS
A~D THAT IN
WOULD NOT RPT NOT BACK DOWN ON VITAL
LAST
THAT KHRUSHCHEV
ANALYSISKENNEDY
WHAlEVERCHAPPENED?>
AND GRAVELY WEAKEN l"l I.ITUAL SELF CONFIDENCE At~D HENCE
COHESION OF F'REE WORLD.THIS
POSilION
BERLIN.
FOLLOWED BY SECOND THOUGHTS WHICH WOULD
WOULD BE INEVITABLY
JEOPARDIZE
KHOLL,
ISSUES OF FREE ACCESS AND
CONTit,.;UED AMERICA[\, PRESENCE IN bERLIN,SINCE
IT
OF
VEHY DANGEROUS IMPHESSION.
THESE FACTORS ARE OMINOUSLY NUMEROUS
ANOMAY
KHRUSHCHEV PROBABLY KtOWS THAT HIS
AM FOR
WOULD ULTIMATELY
AS AN AMERICliN POLITICIAN
DESTROY KENC-.EDYS
~iS WELL AS JEOPARDIZE
AMERICAS
ROLE AS LE.ADER OF F'REE WORLD.MOREOVER SUCH A STUPENDOUS VICTORY
FOR KHRUSHCHEV WOULD l THINK
SHIPS PROPENSITY TO THY
INE-VIT,'iBLY INCREASE COMMWIST LEADER-
FURTHEREXPP,NSION OF COM!":
UNIST
11',;FLUENCE
BY NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL. IT WOULD ALSO ENCOURAGE RUSS IAN TENDENCY TO
t:XPLOIT
GLOBAL MILITARY
POWER THEY hAVE AT LAST BUILT
GREAT COST OVER MANY YEARS. INCIDENT
MISCALC ULAT I~ G PUBLIC
AMERICA~ PUBLIC
f,LLYKHRUSHCHEV
OPINION
6.TO
OF THEIR
DO THIS
IS F'HOBABLY
REACTION Il'-l USA AND ROLE WHICH /\ROUSED
CAN HAVE 0~ POLICY
5.IT 1S I THINKTHEREFORE VITALLYI~PORTANT
LEADERSHlf'
Uf} AT SUCH
ILLUSIONS
OF USA ADMIN.
TO
DISABUSESOVIET
ON .FIRtv:NESS Of -WESTERN INTENTIONS.
WE MUST TRY TO CORRECT VARIOUS CAUSES OF' SOVIET
0
000143
••
.3
�PAGETHREE673
MISINTERPRETATION
OF
WILL
NOT RPT
WESTERN
WILL TO
DEFEND
ITS POSITIONoTHIS
NOT BE EASY OR PERHAPS VERY CHEAP.
7~WEMUSTRECOGNIZESTRENGTHOF
TEMPTATIONS
LURINGKHRUSHCHEV
ANDOTHERSOVIET LEADERS TO TAKERISK.COLD WARGAIN FOR THEMIN
FORCING A WESTERN BACKDOWNWOULDOBVIOUSLY BE ENORMOUS.
NATO( AND
CENTOAND SEATO)WOULD
BE WEAKENED
ANDTHEIR
PUT IN
QUESTIONvTHEY
EXISTENCE
CONTINUED
REASONABLY
EXPECTTHATLONG-TERM
MIGHT
PROBLEM
POSEDFOR COMMUNISTS
BY SUCCESSFULDEVELOPMENT
OF EUROPEAN
COM~ON
MARKET
WOULD PROBABLY
&iCK Ai'-lD PROBABLE DISILLUSION
BE
GREATLY MODERATED
BY POLITICAL SET
ING OF THOSE CONTINENTAL
WEST
EUkOPEANSWHOLOOKOUTWARD ANDFAVOURCLOSE TIES ALSO WITH NORTH
A"lE.R!CA AND
OTHERPARTS OF FRE£ WORLD.,KHRUSHCHEV MAYNEEDA
ALSO BECAUSEDORREGIMEIS NOT RPT NOT STABLE,ANDBECAUSE
~CCESS
OOMMUN!5T ai.oc IS
WELL
INCREASINGLY
;..oSING COHESION.KHRUSHCHEV MAY
CONSIDERHIMSELF UNDER VERY GREATPRESSURE TO ACHIEVESOME,,
THINGWHICH WILL REESTABLISH HIS ANf)MOSCOWS
DOM
!NANCE
ANDEXERCISE SPECTREOF
GROWING
IN BLOC
EEC PULLINGEASTEUROPEINTO ITS
ORBITs
~DESPITE
ALL THIS WEMUSTREMEMBER AND I THINK TAKEADVANTAGE
OF
POWERFUL FACTORS IN3IDE
WHENRISKS
ALL WE
CAN
SHOWNTO BE TOO GREAT.IMPORTANT
AMONG
THESE IS
CAN BE
PROBABLY SOVIET
SEE
PUBLIC OPINIOM.. IT IS SIGNIFICANT THATJUDGINGFROM
HERE. PUBLIC
ON CUBA AND BERLIN
QUIET.THIS IS IN
filANDABLE
COMMUNIST C.t1MPOPPOSED TO FOREIGN ADVENTURES
HA:3 BfEN
PtdT
TO RECENTTASS
DECLARATION
ONE OF :3HOCKED GLOOM AND PHOFOUND DIS~
BUT NOT RPT NOT EXCLUSIVELY
POPULAR FEELING
RUNNING WAR RISKS
REACT ION
THAT DISTANT
DUE TO UNDER=
CUBA IS NOT RPT NOT WORTH
FOR..BUT LAST AUTUMN WAR SCARE ON BERLIN
ALSO INDUCED SOME Pi\N [C AND I THINK
IMPORTANT PUBLIC
AND
ITSELF
PARTY
ffiESSURESON SOVIET LEADERSHIPTO BE MODERATEo
~WESTERNSHOW OF FIRMNESSLAST YEA2CNOT
RPT NOT MERELY IN
" •• 4
000144
�f'AGE FOUR 6 73
WORDS,BUT IN CO$TLY MILITARY AND ECON
Ott:IC ACTION, AND IN FSYCHOLOGIC/'.',L
PREPARP,TION OF WESTERN OPINION
FOR FIRt-;NESS IN A CRISIS)PAID
AND GAINED US POSTPOt--.EMENTOF KHHUSHCHE.VSDEADL!NE.MY
OFF
IMPRESSION
THEN WPiS ALSO THAT Jtv:FORTANT ELEMENTS IN SOVIET LEADERSHIP, IN-
ME~BERS AND SOME SATELLITE
CLUDING SOME PRESIDIUM
VERYCONCERhED
LEST
KHRUSHCHEV
LEADERS,WERE
GO TOO FAR,AND USEDTHEIR INFLUENCE
ON SIDE OF RESTRAINT AND BACKDOWN.
10.BUT ~y IMPRESSION IS ALSO THAT QUOTEFORWARD
UNQUOTE GROUP IN
COMMUNIST LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING
ON THIS
ISSUE KHRUSHCHEV HIMSELF,
HAVE INTERPRETED RESULTAf\T WESTERN EUPHORIA AND SUCH EVIDENCE AS
THEY CAN FIND
OF
WESTERNINDECISION
ANOThER ATTEMPT TO TEST
AND D!SARRAY,TO
WESTERtlNERVE,AFTER THIS YEARS FURTHER
MIL I1 ARY PREPARATIONS PART ICUL.ARLY
DDR B LIT ALSO IN SOV!ET ROCKET
}J,
AND THERMONUC!..EAR CAPA31LITIES,~iIGHT
lleKHRUSHCH[VS
SUGGEST THAT
THIS
TIME PAY OFF.
TO SETTINC
DISCLOSURES TO KROLL AMOUNT I~ EFFECT
At-lOTHER DEADLINE,EV£N
THOUGHNOT RPT NOl El\TIRELY PRECISE AND
THIS TIME. AS YET NOT RPT NOT IN PUBLIC.
12.CUR!OUS FACT THAT ~HRUSHCHEV
WOULD
DISCLOSE"HIS
OPPONENTS THIS
TACTICS TO
FAR IN ADVANCE MAY IMPLY EXTENT OF' HIS
CONFlDENCE,ESPECIALLi'
SELF-
SINCE WI::STERN
RESPONSES HAI/ETHUS FAR BEEN
MERELY DEFENSIVE REACTIONSTO SOVJ.ET INITIATIVES.ON
MIGH1 ALSO,OR ALTERNA1IVELY,SUGGEST
OTHER HAND IT
HIS UNCERTAINTY
AND DREAD OF
ACTUALLY PRESENTING WEST WITH SUCH FAIT
ACCOMPLI AND HIS HOPE
THATTHIS ADVANCE
DISCLOSURE IvlAYPROMPT KENNEDY
TO SEEK MTGBEFORE
NOV MD OF'FER FUHTHERCOJ\CESSIONSTO BUY HIM OFF •
. 1Z1.I TH Il\lK A F UffrHEH \\ESTERN DISPLAY
OF F'IRMNESS COHESION AND
GIRDl~G OUR LOI!\SCMATERIAL AND SPIRlTUAL)WILL
BE NECESSARY.WE
SHOULDPHOBhBLY RE.VIH. AND TIG:ffEN CONTINGENCY PLANS Af-.D OUR
hEADlNESS TO IMPLEMENT THEM.THIS wOULD INCLUDE PLANS FOR CAREFULLY
PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE MILITARY MEASURES,ECONOMIC
SANCTIONS IN
0
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5
000145
�·-
PAGEFI.VE 673
INCLUDINGWESTGERMAN
READINESSTO CUT INTER-ZONALTRADE,AND
PROdABLY
AS DEGAULLEhAS URGEDOTHERMEASURESIN FIELDS OF OUR
OWN CHOOSINGSUCHAS
READINESSTO
CUT
OFF SOV!ET COMMUNICATIONS
FACILITIES IN ANDOVERFREE WOHLD
TERRITORYoABOVE
ALL IT MUSTBE
MADECREDIBLETO MOSCOW
THATWEST IS READYANDDETERMINED TO MAINTAIN ACCESS TO BERLIN BY
l"l IL IT ARY FORCE IF
NECESSARY•
l4oIF WE DO THIS KHRUSHCHEV
IS I THINK FLEXIBLE ENOUGH,AND
HIS
ros1TION STRONGENOUGH,TOLET HIM BPCK DOWNAGAINA KEY ELEMENT.
IN POSITION KHRUSHCHEV
HAS BUILT FOF HIMSELF,NOTRPT NOT ONLY
POLITICALLYBUT IDEALOGICALLY,ISTHATWARWOULDBE DISA5TROUSALSO
FOR
COMMUNIST
CAMP,ANDTHATCOEXISTENCEANDMUTUALRESTRAINT
BETWEEN
POWERS IS IN LONG=TERM
INTERESTALSO OF USSRoKHRUSHCHEV
IS A GAMBLER,AND
NATURALLY
SEEKS TO HAVEIT BOTH WAYS.BUTI
THINKTHAT IN LAST ANAtYSIS HE WILL SETTLE FOR WHATEVER
HE CAN
~FELY GET.OURTASK IS
ro
HELP HIM AVOIDMISCALCULATION,AND
TO LET
HIM DEMONSTRATE
ALSO T1 MOREOBDURATE
ELEMENTSIN SOVIET LEADER=
SHIP AND IN COMMUNIST
BLOC THATCUTTINGWESTERNl-\CCESSTO BERLIN
WOULD
INVOLVEHISKS TOO GREATANDTOO CERTAINTO BE ACEPTABLE
ARNOLD
SMITH
000146
�
Dublin Core
The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.
Title
A name given to the resource
NATO
Dublin Core
The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.
Title
A name given to the resource
Berlin Crisis / 16 SEPTEMBER 1962
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
1962-09-16
Format
The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource
PDF
Language
A language of the resource
en
Type
The nature or genre of the resource
Text
Identifier
An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context
CDTT00040
Source
A related resource from which the described resource is derived
Moscow to External Affairs, ‘‘Germany and Berlin,’’ 16 Sept. 1962, LAC, RG 25, vol. 6080, file no. 50341-A-2-40, part 1.
Arnold Smith
Khrushchev
thermonuclear war