1 20 1 https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/files/original/b9e81ba02ba40c90d042d4a8083adc4d.pdf 931818434c08fe0cf9a71641d1b47ad1 PDF Text Text Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu de la Lor sur I'acc&s a I'information s.15(1) - international SECRET-DRAFT NOTES FOR DEPUTY MINISTERS’ MEETING ON IRAQ 13 FEBRUARY 2003 Notes for USS for DM Ginger Group on Iraq Situation Update Diplomatic efforts aimed at launching, or preventing, an attack on Iraq are coming to a head. France, Germany and Russia are leading efforts to forestall US plans for an attack by proposing that the inspection regime be strengthened and more time be given to inspectors. ’■X Sit W= \ "C: c: > ' 77777777777777777S ■i 77. CxC The action will return to the Security Council tomorrow. Dr. Blix and Dr. ElBaradei will make their reports to the Council and next week the Council will discuss next steps. while France, Germany and Russia will seek more time for inspections. ; JXvCiC - »1 •. 7 ■ i .' ■■.■ ' ■'■■ ' • • . • • • .... ■ i • ■- ■- ■- . ,\. ,v. .V. . • . V. ,v. ,v. ■- I J ; : :<v:.X... '7 •: '7 ' - g-7.' . . . . : .... . 77 7/77 ///777 /7777 ’ ■ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . Canadian options remain open, whatever the outcome of the Security Council deliberations. We can still participate in a US-led coalition, and we have already plans 000008 �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu International SECRET-DRAFT underway to assist the US in other areas of great importance to it, by taking command of the naval task force of Operation Enduring Freedom, and by playing a leading role in the International Stabilisation Force in Afghanistan. , J W V“ z -"*■ V - . .~ V • - . ' . .. . ' . . .' . . . ' , .. . ' . - .. .' . - . ...... . . V“ .. . . V“ .. . . V“ .. We should have, however, no illusions . ... - Diplomatic activity is heating up. 4 WWW >>■*/????>> zfez>^?>. ../' ■/ ’/ . ... ... site ... .•-,-.. .••,-.. .••,... V- .. .'.’.. . ' V - .. . * , • . . * , ' . . y . .. . * •■ ... ... .. v ' z V- . Inspections The inspection process continues, but Iraq continues to insist on doing this the hard way. During their latest visit to Baghdad, Drs Blix and ElBaradei saw an improvement in Iraq’s willingness to comply with resolution 1441, but there has been no breakthrough. The most the chief inspectors will say is that they think Iraq is beginning to understand what is required of it. ■ ■ • * ., f v- ■' ' ■ ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... /I ?1 ?1 ?1 . ’■;•■ /I /< ' - number of troops in field - issue remains primarily political Trans-atlantic issues - state of play at and impact on NATO - French/German/Russian proposal - EU "emergency" Summit next week- Safety of Canadians 000009 �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu de la Lor sur I'acc&s a I'information SECRET-DRAFT Economic/Border implications 000010 �Processed under the umyisiorus of the Access toMormation Act / Revise en vertu SECRET-DRAFT NOTES FOR DEPUTY MINISTERS’ MEETING ON IRAQ 13 FEBRUARY 2003 Notes for USS for DM Ginger Group on Iraq Situation Update Diplomatic efforts aimed at launching, or preventing, an attack on Iraq are coming to a head. The US and the UK are signaling that the end of the inspection process is near, (ft ■• • S' France, Germany and Russia are leading efforts to forestall US plans for an attack by proposing that the inspection regime be strengthened and more time be given to inspectors. ' / / / / / / / / ■ P^Kcoerciv^^ inspections is not new. It was considered last summer and rejected by most as an ineffective way of securing Iraq’s disarmament. There is a clear process underway through Resolution 1441 and the inspection regime.« .............................................................. ... ■ •■• .• ■ JtStttwi • ....... ;■ ■F ~w« SBHHSi>/-?>/-?>/-?up ■,. ■ ■ • .......... .... ... .■ ■ 000011 �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu de accis a rin/prmation s,15(1) - international SECRET-DRAFT igg ........ : as ZZX wWwWWIf ,■ ■________ i its • I ■' iw . ' V - .. . ' . .. . ' . .. .' V- ' V’ . . ' . .. •. . ■ ' ' ' ' ' ' -‘ V' v" ** SIZ z.■/ . ,■ V The action will return to the Security Council tomorrow. Dr. Blix and Dr. ElBaradei will make their reports to the Council and next week the Council will ............................. .. discuss next steps. • 0 • $ t ... ____ I ;. \ The inspection process is still underway, but Iraq continues to insist on doing this the hard way and mostly their way. Their cooperation grudging and they still think they can make bargains with the UN. During their latest visit to Baghdad, Drs Blix and ElBaradei saw an improvement in Iraq’s willingness to comply with resolution 1441, but there has been no breakthrough. On Friday, the chief inspectors will likely say is that they think Iraq is beginning to understand what is required of it. They will also likely state that no more inspectors are required, but, given more time, and, crucially, a real change in attitude from Iraq, the inspection process could work. » SB r"- i i OiWiiiiii " t'Z" ■ .............. ■ ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ .-" ■' :• CV- - ' < .... ■' •. ■■■■•■ - «•’-,■ - i_- '-,■ - • •,• - ■ - •,• - ■ - •,• - ■ - ■ ■' ’7’‘ ’7’ ’' ' -' > Z. ■'Z'.'.-.Z>..'■.•./•• >..'■.•./•• >..'■.•./•• ■Sy ’.- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ..- ' -' 7' ’ \;.Z;\ ..- ZZ. ,- ..- Z Z. C •.' ' ... ■ ' *. ■ ' •■ ' -' ' *■ . y V ' ' V .. . ' V .. . ' V • ' V - .. . ' . ■ ' V ■ .. . ‘ ‘ . ’* . ' V- .. ' V ’ .. ' V .. . ' V .. ... ... ... ... . .. .. .' . .. .' , .. .' , .. V- z C' V- 000012 . �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu de accis a rin/prmation s,15(1) - international SECRET-DRAFT Most European governments, including those eight that signed the famous letter, are looking for ways to secure their relationship with the United States while still not making formal commitments to a US-coalition. Our analysis suggests that, with the exception of the UK and Australia, no country is prepared to make much more than a token military contribution aside from overflight and transit authorisations. Contributions continue to be more rhetorical than substantive. I ... ggMBMfea: B8B Canadian options remain open, whatever the outcome of the Security Council deliberations- Ate are already indirectly assisting the US Iraq efforts by backfilling or by taking command of the naval task force of Operation Enduring Freedom, We are also planning to p ay a major role in the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. ~ ' v ’' fOWSSSi I . * However, we should have no illusions. ’ tail Embassy Contingency Plans Protective equipment, medicines, and other supplies have been provided to 000013 �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu de la Loi sur I'acc&s a I'information SECRET-DRAFT assure the health and safety of core Embassy staff who will remain behind after non-core staff and dependants have left and Canadians have been advised to depart. U.S., Austria and Japan have approved voluntary departure of Embassy staff and dependants from Kuwait and are urging citizens to consider departing. Poland, Spain and Bulgaria have also begun drawdown. For Kuwait: because of increased risk and diminishing commercial airline capacity, we are preparing to instruct dependants and non-core Embassy staff to depart by February 15. Simultaneously, Canadians would be advised not to travel to Kuwait and those in country would be advised to depart. For Tel Aviv, Ramallah, Amman, Riyadh, Damascus and Beirut: we are monitoring in-country situations closely and are preparing, if necessary, for early departure of dependants and non-essential staff during the week following release of the Feb 14 Blix Report to the Security Council. For each of the above, the U.S. has already authorized departure of dependants on a voluntary basis and has advised citizens to leave. 000014 �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu fhterhatTonaF SECRET-DRAFT NOTES FOR DEPUTY MINISTERS’ MEETING ON IRAQ 13 FEBRUARY 2003 Notes for USS for DM Ginger Group on Iraq Situation Update Diplomatic efforts aimed at launching, or preventing, an attack on Iraq are coming to a head. The US and the UK are signaling that the end of the inspection process is near Rtf?' ■■■■■■■■■ France, Germany and Russia are leading efforts to forestall US plans for an attack by proposing that the inspection regime be strengthened and more time be given to inspectors. The idea of coercive inspections is not new. It was considered last summer and rejected by most as an ineffective way of securing Iraq’s disarmament. ■ There is a clear process underway through Resolution 1441 and the inspection , , , , ... : , , , , , , , , ,, ■ ■ x • 000015 �Processed under the gJPi'lsiorts of the Access tojntormation Act / Revise en vertu SECRET-DRAFT ■ '• / IF wli 18 The action will return to the Security Council tomorrow. Dr. Blix and Dr. ElBaradei will make their reports to the Council and next week the Council will discuss next steps. The inspection process is still underway, but Iraq continues to insist on doing this the hard way and mostly their way. Their cooperation grudging and they still think they can make bargains with the UN. During their latest visit to Baghdad, Drs Blix and ElBaradei saw an improvement in Iraq’s willingness to comply with resolution 1441, but there has been no breakthrough. On Friday, the chief inspectors will likely say is that they think Iraq is beginning to understand what is required of it. They will also likely state that no more inspectors are required, but, given more time, and, crucially, a real change in attitude from Iraq, the inspection process could work. it s*S iSSs it ; ■ .<■ .7: 57 F<. • 7;. - ■ z ? ■■■ . • i N ' ' ' .7 . -■ ■ 7-7.7.' ■ ||i| 7 000016 �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu rte !|g1 jopaj1'1 SECRET-DRAFT Most European governments, including those eight that signed the famous letter, are looking for ways to secure their relationship with the United States while still not making formal commitments to a US-coalition. Our analysis suggests that, with the exception of the UK and Australia, no country is prepared to make much more than a token military contribution aside from overflight and transit authorisations. Contributions continue to be more rhetorical than substantive. mniiiiiiiiia gggp asa i ■ .■ ■ ■ Canadian options remain open, whatever the outcome of the Security Council de,ibera,ions- already indirectly assisting the US Iraq efforts by backfilling or by taking command of the naval task force of Operation Enduring Freedom, We are also planning to play a major role in the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. glSi • -■• . ■■■ .'■ •- ••■ .. ■ :■' ■■■■. ? ■ ... : XU • ... itiiisi Itlttel Tlliil Wl fwiiiwilaiilS ■» •a .o h IB Ji sfcia However, we should have no illusions. asssssssssssssss sssfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsfcsw h h h h h h iiiii Canada-US Relations & the Border ^sy.- ; . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . ... .-.. .-.. ... ... ... 000017 �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act Revise en vertu de la Lai sur I'acc&s a I'information s.15(1) - International SECRET-DRAFT • . ■:■_ . . :■ S ;... . ‘ . . • ... - ■’ • '■ B|'.| ■ ■ IB IBB B ■............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ ' >• ’■ ’ *■ *' ■ *■ ’ *■ *■ *■ ' ' T ' ' r *' *. > s ■ ->;b w .'- ?b b ib ;bb ^-b • Illi ; ®g ^aawMi ®SSa 5 ill C\B < Fer-iJ ' '>1|| ■wOl^ •>'<'•<'1 <B-7-v ?;.^-.' '<>•;?. IIMw sBt •':?. '. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. •. .' .. ' ... "... • .v' .v' ';. \ ?. .'. /. /. /. \ \ \ \ /. /. \ ;. . Embassy Contingency Plans 000018 �Processed under the provisions of the Access to Information Act / Revise en vertu de la Loi sur I'acc&s a I'information SECRET-DRAFT Protective equipment, medicines, and other supplies have been provided to assure the health and safety of core Embassy staff who will remain behind after non-core staff and dependants have left and Canadians have been advised to depart. U.S., Austria and Japan have approved voluntary departure of Embassy staff and dependants from Kuwait and are urging citizens to consider departing. Poland, Spain and Bulgaria have also begun drawdown. For Kuwait: because of increased risk and diminishing commercial airline capacity, we are preparing to instruct dependants and non-core Embassy staff to depart by February 15. Simultaneously, Canadians would be advised not to travel to Kuwait and those in country would be advised to depart. For Tel Aviv, Ramallah, Amman, Riyadh, Damascus and Beirut: we are monitoring in-country situations closely and are preparing, if necessary, for early departure of dependants and non-essential staff during the week following release of the Feb 14 Blix Report to the Security Council. For each of the above, the U.S. has already authorized departure of dependants on a voluntary basis and has advised citizens to leave. 000019 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context CDIQ00035 Title A name given to the resource Notes for Deputy Ministers' Meeting on Iraq [multiple drafts] Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 13-Feb-03 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived GAC ATIP A-2010-01957 Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Global Affairs Canada Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Canadian Crown Subject The topic of the resource Global War on Terror Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Canada Declassified Type The nature or genre of the resource Text Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource PDF