CDIM00382. 9 November 1953. "The Current Risks of General War"

This paper attempts to assess the likelihood of general war with the Soviet Union during the period between November 1953 and December 1954. The report begins with a brief survey of the situation within the Soviet Union. It takes note of recent developments in Soviet foreign and domestic policy, observing that “[f]or the most part changes have been in the direction of easing tension in the international sphere and generally ameliorating the conditions of everyday life in the Soviet Union.” The paper also noted that “[e]conomically, this year's budget was the first' since 1948 that had not shown a significant increase in the resources devoted to military purposes.” However, at the same time, the paper highlighted Soviet progress on the development of atomic and thermonuclear weapons. The next two sections are dedicated to analysing the likelihood of war arising through deliberate action or miscalculation. The paper concluded that the Soviet Union was unlikely to intentionally resort to war, at least before the end of 1954. However, there was a continuing danger that general war could result from miscalculation and accidents, or from independent action by nations over which the Great Powers have little control.