CDIM00301. 3 July 1952. "The Current Risks of General War"

This document applies the suggested revisions from the previous draft (See CDIM00277). A section examining potential hotspots for conflict has been added along with a proper conclusion. The document concluded that the Soviet Union had the capacity to embark on a major war at any time, but was unlikely to deliberately do so in 1952. Instead, the Soviets would “prefer to employ covert methods and non-Russian communist troops to expand communist influence.” However, there was still the danger of war occurring through “miscalculation by either side or through the acceptance of risks in a local operation.” Areas of particular concern included Korea, Southeast Asia, Germany, Yugoslavia, and the Middle East.