CDIM00277. 11 February 1952. "Risks of General War in the Period 1952 - 1954"

This draft examines the risks of general war in the period between 1952 and 1954. The draft outlines the role of expansionism and territorial aggrandizement in Soviet Communist ideology. It then begins a discussion on the overall balance of military power - the preeminent factor determining Soviet willingness to resort to war. The draft reported that the “Soviet Union has in relation to the West a great superiority in armed forces and conventional weapons.” With its existing forces, the Soviets were capable of overrunning Western Europe and conducting campaigns on multiple continents simultaneously. The main Soviet deficiencies were the lack of atomic weapons and weaknesses in air defence. The draft warned that the Soviets could embark on a preventive war if they are “impressed by the increasingly sharp Western reactions to their expansionist moves.” Likewise, the report argues that there is also a danger of the Soviets resorting to war if they believe the Western Allies will attack when they are strong enough. The draft has suggestions for revisions scribbled throughout and the conclusion is left unfinished.