CDIW00480. 14 June 1950. "Political Factors in the Likelihood of Outbreak of War with the Soviet Union"

This memorandum for the Defence Liaison contains comments on the previous draft paper (See CDIW00476). It recommended the deletion or alteration of several paragraphs and the comments further expounded on Soviet thinking and ideology. The document assessed that Soviet priorities “must always be the security and strengthening of the Soviet fatherland,”  meaning that conflict would be unlikely unless “there can be no question of the [war’s] outcomes” in terms of Communist gains. It also suggested that the Soviets believed in the “theory of ebb and flow of opportunity.” As such, the paper advised “[i]f the tide should momentarily go against them… it would not lead them to believe that the inevitability of the triumph of communism is receding—but simply that they were in for a period of ebb.” With the Soviet press recently suggesting there could be peaceful coexistence between the two systems, the memorandum ends by emphasizing that the Soviets were playing a long-term game with their “clash theory.”