CDIW00474. 20 May 1950. "The Likelihood of and Circumstances of War with the Soviet Union"

This draft copy written on May 20, 1950 set out to answer two questions: “[w]ill the Soviet Union go to war,” and “if so, when and why?” The document begins by examining Communist ideology and Soviet policy, concluding that there is not “the least mystery” surrounding Soviet aspirations for world domination. Given Soviet beliefs that communism would inevitably triumph, the document assessed it was unlikely that the Soviets would risk a major war “to accomplish what history will sooner or later accomplish anyway.” But with the West gaining in strength, the document stated that the Soviets could resort to war in the near future should the inevitability of communism triumph be threatened, and non-military means fail to achieve their goals. Before closing, the draft pointed out that Soviet attitudes remained resolute and thus, “[i]t is impossible to conceive of any reasonable solution of the world's present problems without war.”