CDIM02459. 9 February 1962. "The Likelihood of War with the Soviet Union up to 1966"

This British report, published on February 9, 1962, examined the “likelihood of war between the Soviet Union and Western Allies up to 1966.” The report examines various degrees of conflict: general nuclear war, limited war, and conflict arising from miscalculation. The greatest concern, the report noted, was “general nuclear war coming about as a result of a process of miscalculation.” Potential circumstances were identified, such as the misinterpretation of intentions during a “critical or tense situation,” either side believing the other would not “use nuclear weapons if pressed too far.” or a failure to “foresee the consequences of the policies being pursued by a third party with which it was associated.” The report noted, however, that “all possible action [would be] taken to convince the other of their firmness of purpose before launching a strategic nuclear attack.” As such, general nuclear war was unlikely “without being preceded by a period of limited hostilities.” The report concluded that Soviet leaders were unlikely to engage in a general nuclear exchange; limited war by either land or sea was also unlikely due to Western capabilities and the fear of escalation into nuclear warfare. The prospects of war were assessed to be “unlikely to arise… in a time of no particular tension.”