CDIM02298. July 1959. "The Likelihood of War up to the end of 1964"

This document was presented to the Australian Joint Intelligence Committee in July 1959. The ten-page report assesses “the likelihood of global war or limited wars occurring before the end of 1964.” The report begins by studying basic Communist objectives and policies before analysing the role of military strength. It then evaluates the likelihood of a global war occuring as a result of deliberate policy or miscalculation. The document concluded that the former was unlikely, while the latter was a possibility due to acute East-West tensions or an extension of a limited war. The annex of the report identifies situations in various parts of the world that may give rise to limited wars.