CDIM02254. 20 November 1958. "The Likelihood of Global War between the Sino-Soviet Bloc and the Free World"

The British report JIC (58)99 (Final) was completed on November 20, 1958, which assessed “the likelihood of global war between the Sino-Soviet bloc and the free world.” The report is split into two sections, with the first analysing Soviet objectives and attitudes. JIC (58)99 (Final) stated that the costs of a nuclear war to the Soviet Union, as well as an inability to fully strike at North America, would discourage it from general war. The report also considered that the current Soviet strategy of “world-wide Communist domination by methods other than war has paid dividends and is likely to continue to do so,” while a global war “would offer no advantages and many disadvantages.” The conclusion, then, was that Soviet leadership had no incentive to start a general war, but that one could arise from miscalculation or misunderstanding of intentions and circumstances. The second part of the report, focusing on Chinese attitudes, took the opinion that “[t]he Chinese are probably less fearful of war, even global war, than the Soviet Union.” However, Chinese weakness in modern weapons and a focus on internal development made the chances of general war unlikely. The conclusion regarding the Chinese was that “the risk of global war as the result of Chinese [actions] will probably increase,” but that they would not resort to war “as a deliberate instrument of policy.”