CDIM02225. 17 April 1958. "The Likelihood of Global War up to mid-1963"

This New Zealand document produced on April 17, 1958 attempts to assess the likelihood of global war occurring within the next five years. This revised draft takes into account Canadian, British, and American comments on the previous report, JIC 57(8). The document outlines the ways in which a global war could occur, namely through deliberate action or through miscalculation. In the case of deliberate action, the report finds that the “West's deterrent capabilities, and the success of current Soviet cold war strategy, are the main factors weighing against any Soviet decision to initiate global war.” The paper also determined that a global war occurring through miscalculation was possible, but unlikely.