CDIM02134. 18 February 1957. "The Likelihood of War in 1957"

Working under the assumption that NATO countries will not deliberately attack the Soviet Union, this document aimed to assess the likelihood of war in the period between February 1957 and December 1957. The paper examined Soviet economic and military strength in depth and identified potential hotspots for conflict. The paper concluded that the Soviet Union was unlikely to initiate a general war during this period. Despite this, there were fears that instability in the Middle East and Eastern Europe could increase the danger of war through miscalculation by either side. The paper also warned that the United States could be dragged into a war with Communist China if the Nationalist Chinese or the Communist Chinese escalated the situation off Formosa.