CDIM02073. 27 May 1957. "Likelihood of Global War and Warning of Attack"

This report by the British Joint Intelligence Committee, dated May 27, 1957, attempts to assess the likelihood of global war between the Sino-Soviet bloc and the Western allies up to 1966. The document begins by studying Soviet intentions and capabilities before identifying events which could increase the risk of global war. The paper determined that the Soviets wished to avoid war. According to the report, the Soviets were aware of the devastating nature of nuclear war and cognizant of their inability to mount effective attacks on North America. The paper then shifts its focus on examining the warnings of Soviet attack. The report believed it unlikely that the Soviets would be able to prepare for a surprise attack without alerting the Allies. However, as to the actual moment of attack, the report expected the detection of Soviet aircraft on Allied radar screens would be “the only warning.” It added that with surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, there could be no warning of attack at all.