CDIM01964. 10 September 1953. "Likelihood of General War with the Soviet Union"

The previous report in 1952, JIC (52)6, concluded that general war was unlikely on a whole, but cautioned that the dangers of preventive war and miscalculation remained. This 1953 report by the British Joint Intelligence Committee examines to what extent these conclusions needed to be altered in light of recent developments. Among these developments were the Korean armistice, riots in East Germany, the downfall of Lavrentiy Beria, and the first Soviet thermonuclear test. Despite the new developments, this report saw “no reason to alter any of the conclusions of our last report, except that we believe the Soviet Government, temporarily at least, will be more cautious in the conduct of their cold-war struggle against the West.”