CDIM01947. 12 February 1953. "Likelihood of General War with the Soviet Union up to the end of 1955"

The British paper COS (53)91 was produced on February 12, 1953, concerning the likelihood of war with the Soviet Union. It was presented to the Chiefs of Staff, forwarded to the Cabinet Defence Committee, and was also agreed to be shown to the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. This report examined likely Soviet actions, alongside the dangers of unintentional war or preventive war caused by Soviet insecurity. Compared to a previous report (which was not named), the JIC modified its estimates to account towards the end of 1955. It considered political and military developments to assess the likelihood of deliberate war, and also the factors that could instigate an unintentional or preventive war. Growing Western power or escalating conflicts in local conflicts across the world were seen as the most likely factors for a potential general war. However, the report concluded that the Soviet government would “still wish to avoid starting a general war [up to 1955],” and that “[Western] superiority in atomic warfare… will continue to be the chief military deterrent.” COS (53)91 stressed that the Western powers “combining strength and unity with resolution and restraint” would be the “best hope to avoid a general war.”