CDIM01739. 5 April 1951. "Likelihood of Total War with the Soviet Union up to the end of 1954"

This document is the American report JIC 531/19/D [1], which was submitted to the US Joint Intelligence Committee for consideration on April 5, 1951. The report’s purpose was not only to assess the likelihood with the Soviet Union, but to compare the US conclusions with a report conducted by the British Joint Intelligence Committee [2]. There are disagreements on some assessments, notably the British believed that if the Western Powers could “combine resolution with restraint there should be no total war during the next four years,” while the US assessment was that “[t]he danger of a general war… exists now and will continue to exist through 1954.” On the topic of Soviet aggression, the British assumed that a willingness to use the atomic bomb would force the Soviet leaders to “withdraw and settle… on the best terms they can,” while the Americans doubted that “[the Soviets] now assess us as resolved to use the atomic bomb.” The report concluded that the US position did not require any substantial changes, and further noted that the British conclusions did not take into account Soviet response to Japanese rearmament, or potentially increased Soviet participation in the Korea War. The JIC suggested a reply to the British Chiefs of Staff that noted the differences between both countries’ reports.

[1] JIC 531/19/D was submitted under the cover of JIC 531/20.

[2] The American views were compared to conclusions in the British report JIC (50)111 (Final). This document is not part of the briefing book.