CDIM00377. 9 October 1953. "The Likelihood of General War"

This is the third draft of the JIC paper titled “The Likelihood of General War”, with suggestions of renaming it to “The Current Risks of General War” instead. The report, keeping in line with the first draft (see CDIM01739), examines the prospects of general war with the Soviet Union in 1954. It takes into consideration deliberate and accidental triggers for war, even in the context of a new Soviet leadership that had led to a “direction of easing tension in the international sphere.” The report discussed the unlikelihood of a deliberate war, owing to Soviet incapability to neutralize North American while securing its objectives in other regions. While a preventative war by the Soviets was possible, the JIC predicted it “unlikely that… the Soviet leaders will resort deliberately to general war even as a preventive measure.” The other possibility of war, occurring from general miscalculation or an accident, was also considered . However, the report concluded that “at least until the end of 1954, such a general war would be a development neither planned nor welcomed by either major bloc.”