CDIM00373. 29 June 1953. " The Likelihood of General War"

This is the first page of a JIS draft produced on June 29, 1953. It attempts to assess the likelihood of war with the Soviet Union during the period between July 1, 1953, and December 31, 1954. Assuming that the West would not deliberately attack the Soviet Union, the draft concluded that it was unlikely for the Soviet Union to resort to general war as a preventative measure or to further its aims. As long as Soviet leaders could achieve their objectives through “less hazardous methods”, the draft stated it was improbable that the Soviets would pursue any course of action that may risk war. Still, the draft notes that “there will be a continuing danger of war arising because of genuine miscalculation, accidental occurrences or errors of conduct on either side.”