CDIM00003. March 1950. "The Likelihood of War with the Soviet Union and the Date by Which the Soviet Leaders Might be Prepared to Risk It"

This report by the British Joint Intelligence Committee reviewed the likelihood of war with the Soviet Union, and attempted to determine when Soviet leaders might be prepared to risk a major war. Assuming that Soviet leaders would take into account the readiness of the Allies’ before resorting to war, the document first examines the preparedness of the NATO powers. It assesses the political and economic strengths of the Western Allies before surveying the capabilities of their land, naval, and air forces relative to the Soviets. The report determined that Soviet leaders were unlikely to start a world war deliberately, but a preventive war was still possible. The document also suggested the Soviet Army and Navy were already sufficiently prepared for a major war. But Soviet leaders would not be prepared to risk a major war until 1955 or 1956,  given the unready state of the Soviet economy and air force.